KMT TAIPEI MAYORAL CANDIDATE HAU STILL FACES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003891

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT TAIPEI MAYORAL CANDIDATE HAU STILL FACES
SIGNIFICANT HURDLES


Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: While KMT Taipei mayoral candidate Hau
Long-bin still appears likely to win the December 9 election,
there are several unpredictable scenarios that could threaten
this expectation. Hau's relaxed campaign style has stirred
some discomfort among KMT supporters, giving many voters the
impression that Hau feels entitled to their support. Hau's
1995 defection from the KMT to the New Party and his
subsequent decision to accept a position within President
Chen's DPP government have caused many Pan-Blues to question
Hau's fidelity to KMT values. These perceptions could cause
some Pan-Blues to stay home on election day, or to vote for
competing pan-Blue candidates PFP Chairman James Soong and
blue-leaning independent legislator Lee Ao. KMT officials
fear Soong and Lee combined could steal 150 thousand votes
away from Hau, which could hand the race to DPP opponent
Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting). The recent accounting scandal
involving Taipei mayor and KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou could
also adversely affect Hau's popularity with deep-Blue and
light-Green voters. All of these contingencies would have to
break against Hau for him to lose, but one or two might be
enough to make the race much closer in the end than current
polls suggest. End Summary.

Voters Want Hau to Earn Their Votes
--------------


2. (C) KMT legislator and former KMT spokesman Justin Chou
told AIT that, despite Hau Long-bin's double-digit lead in
media popularity polls, the KMT could still lose the Taipei
mayoral race for several reasons. First, Hau is
overconfident of victory, and many Blue voters perceive him
as arrogant. Chou remarked that Taipei KMT voters tend to
view themselves as "kingmakers," willing and able to elevate
a politician to national prominence, but only if he or she
has the right academic background, appearance, and
temperament. Hau comes from a well-known political family,
and is attractive and well-educated, but the relaxed tone of
his campaign suggests to KMT voters that Hau believes he is
entitled to, and need not work for, their support. A popular
axiom within the KMT is that Taipei voters will look for any
excuse not to vote. Chou predicted that Hau's perceived
arrogance would work to suppress KMT voter turnout.

Is Hau Blue or Green?
--------------


3. (C) Hau's second problem is that many Blue voters question
his loyalty to the KMT. Hau defected from the KMT to the New
Party, and then agreed to serve as President Chen's
Environmental Minister. Some light-green voters may be
attracted to Hau's conciliatory pragmatism, Chou conceded,
but many more deep-Blue voters are put off by his
"ideological flexibility" and will not vote for him.
Instead, they could vote for PFP Chairman James Soong or
independent deep-Blue legislator Lee Ao, or just sit out the
election altogether.

Pan-Blue Competitors Threaten Hau's Margin
--------------


4. (C) Mayoral candidates Soong and Lee are a third threat to
a Hau victory, Chou told AIT, because together they could
lure as many as 150,000 voters away, splitting the Pan-Blue
vote. No one doubts Soong's commitment to Pan-Blue values,
Chou continued, and many Blue voters agree with Soong and
Lee's criticism of Chairman Ma as being too soft on President
Chen. According to Chou, most KMT party members preferred
deep-Blue legislator Ting Shou-chung over Hau in the primary,
and could vote for Soong or Lee to express their
dissatisfaction with Hau's nomination. The KMT primary was
decided by a combination of KMT party votes and public
opinion polls, Chou explained. Hau lost the KMT vote
(weighted at 30 percent),but won the public opinion contest
(weighted at 70 percent). The problem, Chou continued, is
that the public opinion polls used to decide the primary
included Pan-Green voters, who favored Hau, but would never
vote for him. The KMT can only count on Pan-Blue support to

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win, and should have chosen Ting, who appealed to a broader
section of Pan-Blues and had a greater chance of success.
Moroeover, Chou said, Soong would not have entered the race
if Ting had won the primary. (Note: Soong himself told the
Director this last month. End Note.)

Don't Count DPP Out Just Yet
--------------


5. (C) Another obstacle is Hau's DPP opponent, former premier
Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting). Chou predicted that Hsieh will
receive at least 35-38 percent of the vote, which could put
him within striking distance of winning if Pan-Blue voters
split or simply fail to vote. The Pan-Blues ran two
candidates in the 1998 Taipei mayoral race, Chou continued.
The New Party candidate Wang Chien-hsuan garnered three
percent of the vote, or just under 45 thousand ballots. Ma
still managed to win, but only defeated his DPP opponent Chen
Shui-bian by six points, or 78 thousand votes. (Comment: The
1994 contest is also instructive: Chen Shui-bian won with
only 44 percent because the KMT and New Party candidates
split the remaining 56 percent 30-26. End Comment.) If
Soong can double or triple Wang's 1998 vote count, Chou
argued, he could substantially reduce Hau's cushion of
victory, and even hand the plurality to Hsieh. Soong's
popularity has held steady at around ten percent for eight
weeks. Hsieh's barrage of negative ads against Hau over the
past several days could also undermine Hau's support.

Ma's Troubles Impact Hau
--------------


6. (C) The mayoral office accounting scandal vexing current
Taipei mayor (and KMT Chairman) Ma Ying-jeou (reported
septel) will adversely affect Hau's electoral chances,
predicted Hau's deputy campaign manager, Sam Wu (Hsiu-kwang).
Hau had been counting on the promise of strong finish-line
endorsements from Ma to win over those deep-Blues still
suspicious of his KMT bona fides. Ma's stature has been
diminished by this scandal, Wu explained, and those
deep-Blues wavering in their support for Hau might be less
willing to heed Ma's call to vote. Moreover, the steady
drumbeat of financial scandals has intensified the
polarization of Taiwan's political landscape, and has
confused and further alienated less-partisan "swing" voters.
Hau has billed himself as the natural successor to the "clean
and competent" Ma. Ma's troubles make Hau's claim less
convincing. Wu feared that many of the light-Green swing
voters who might have been attracted to Hau because of Ma
could choose not to vote, to avoid possibly voting for the
wrong, i.e. possibly corrupt, candidate. Nevertheless, Wu
said that, given Hau's twenty-point lead in the polls, it was
"hard to imagine" him losing the mayoral race.

Two More Hau Scandals on the Horizon
--------------


7. (C) Wu told AIT that he expects Hsieh's campaign to launch
two more "scandal attacks" in the three weeks remaining
before the election. Both are false, and both are likely to
do little more than reinforce existing Green prejudices
toward Hau. The first accusation is that Hau has an
illegitimate child living in the United States. Wu said
Hsieh campaign officials will claim to have a DNA test
proving Hau's paternity. The second claim is that Hau
profited from the Lafayette frigate kickback scandal, in
which his father, former premier Hau Pei-tsun, was allegedly
involved. Wu told AIT Hau's campaign is prepared to rebut
both claims, and to return Hsieh's fire with reams and reams
of evidence implicating Hsieh in the Kaohsiung-Taipei Railway
Construction project corruption scandal. There is also the
possibility that Soong, who as former Secretary General of
the KMT, knows lots of secrets, could spring a last-minute
bombshell, most likely involving the candidate's father.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) We have been hearing the same caveats on the Taipei

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mayoral election from many of our KMT interlocutors: 35-40
percent of Taipei voters are Greens who support Hsieh, Green
turnout rate is higher than Blue, Soong could easily draw ten
percent, and Hau has only lukewarm support from deep-Blues
and light-Greens. We surmise that the KMT may be trying to
create a sense of crisis in Taipei to motivate Blue voters to
turn out for Hau. Ma's recent accounting scandal only adds
greater urgency. Hau continues to hold a comfortable lead in
the polls. Although Hsieh may reduce his sizeable margin on
election day, all the breaks would have to go against Hau for
him to lose.
YOUNG