PRESIDENT CHEN'S BATTLE TO STAY IN OFFICE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003773 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2031 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN'S BATTLE TO STAY IN OFFICE REF: TAIPEI 3771 TAIPEI 00003773 001.3 OF 003 Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has announced plans to launch a third recall effort against President Chen, following release yesterday of the prosecutor's REPORT implicating Chen in corruption charges against his wife. The recall effort will fail unless the KMT can persuade at least 14 DPP legislators to vote for the motion. To increase pressure on Chen to resign, the KMT is also holding protest marches this weekend in Kaohsiung and Taipei. Following a lengthy and contentious DPP meeting last night, the party has requested President Chen to make a public statement of explanation within three days, but it is not referring him to its disciplinary body at this time. A DPP contact told AIT that the party will enforce discipline on its members to prevent Chen from being recalled. DPP New Tide faction moderates, he added, were disappointed that the party did not refer Chen to its disciplinary committee. If Chen's public response to the prosecutor's REPORT is not convincing, they will step up efforts to have Chen's party membership suspended. Prominent DPP elder Yao Chia-wen told AIT that Deep Green leaders are advising Chen not to step down but to shore up his defense and make public explanations while the opposition effort to recall him is underway. Shih Ming-te's "Depose Chen" movement hopes to rebuild momentum in its campaign to pressure the President to step down. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Following a KMT Central Standing Committee emergency meeting last night, Chairman Ma Ying-jeou announced that next week the KMT will introduce a third recall motion against President Chen in the Legislative Yuan (LY),to be voted on November 25. Ma urged DPP legislators to vote for the next recall, which cannot reach the needed two-thirds threshold unless at least 14 DPP legislators support the motion. Ma also announced the KMT would hold protest marches urging Chen to resign in Kaohsiung on Saturday, November 4, and in Taipei on Sunday, November 5. ¶3. (SBU) Following an expanded DPP Central Executive Committee (CEC) meeting the evening of November 3, DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun announced a four-point consensus decision to: - refer indicted party members (including First Lady Wu Shu-chen but not President Chen, who was not indicted because he has presidential immunity) to the party's Central Review Committee for quick action according to party regulations; - request President Chen to immediately and publicly make clear explanations in response to the questions raised in the indictment; - promote legislation to regulate use of the special presidential funds; and, - apologize to the public for the turmoil caused by the special funds case. According to media reports, there was a lengthy and heated debate at the closed CEC meeting over whether to refer President Chen to the Central Review Committee (CRC). The compromise decision was not to refer Chen to the CRC at this point but to demand that he offer a public statement of explanation. The party will meet again next Wednesday (November 8) to decide whether to take further actions. ¶4. (C) A senior staffer for DPP legislator Lin Cho-shui told AIT that the DPP's consensus decision makes clear that President Chen and the party plan to fight efforts to force Chen out of office and will not give up. The party will keep a unified position and enforce discipline, he said; it will not allow LY members or the DPP LY caucus to make their own TAIPEI 00003773 002.2 OF 003 decisions on the KMT-sponsored vote to recall President Chen. The staffer advised us not to be surprised if President Chen makes controversial remarks on issues such as constitutional revision or cross-Strait relations in his efforts to rally Deep Green supporters to his defense. We should not take Chen's political rhetoric too seriously, the staffer suggested. ¶5. (C) DPP members associated with the moderate New Tide faction are upset over what they view as flawed logic in the consensus decision regarding Chen, the staffer continued. In their view, the only reason President Chen was not indicted was that he enjoys presidential immunity; they believe he should have been referred to the CRC as a "virtually indicted" party member. The DPP normally endorses high standards of integrity, and recently it even expelled a member just for being under investigation for corruption without having been indicted. DPP moderates are concerned that the public will lose confidence and trust in the party, costing them future elections, including the December 9 Kaohsiung mayoral contest. The staffer suggested it will be harder to rally support around Chen now than in the past, and the DPP will lose more supporters. The New Tide faction lost the battle in the CEC last night, he observed, and they will wait for Chen's speech before deciding what to do next. If Chen does not offer a convincing case, New Tide members will step up efforts to seek suspension of Chen's party membership. ¶6. (C) The police removed demonstrators from Ketagelan Boulevard in front of the Presidential Office early this morning. "Depose Chen" movement international spokesman Emile Sheng told AIT that the turnout last night was only about 500, though our estimate is there were up to 1,000 protesters. Movement leaders and demonstrators were angered that Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou evicted them from the Presidential Office area. Ma was unwilling to use his emergency powers to allow the demonstrators to stay because "it did not serve his or the KMT's political interests," Sheng argued. Ma, who wants to take credit for being the "final force" that pushes Chen out of office, is forcing others off the stage. Ma particularly wants to prevent PFP Chairman and Taipei mayoral candidate James Soong from again using the Shih Ming-te movement to boost his election campaign, said Sheng. Although Sheng said the protest would return to Ketagelan this evening, another movement leader announced later that the movement had canceled this plan for now. ¶7. (C) This morning Examination Yuan President Yao Chia-wen called a meeting of the Deep Green elders, including Koo Kwang-ming, and they agreed that President Chen should not resign and that the KMT recall effort should be allowed to run its course, which will takes several weeks or months. Yao told AIT that meeting participants believed Chen should use this period to shore up his defense and to make explanations to the people of Taiwan. The elders were incensed over what they viewed as unfair treatment of Chen, Yao said. All presidents prior to Chen had made free use of the presidential special budget without question. Chen had simply inherited this system and had even reduced the special budget, but nonetheless was being held accountable under a new set of standards. The Deep Green elders will be meeting with President Chen on Tuesday morning, Yao said, adding that their advice from this morning's meeting will be conveyed immediately to the President. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) President Chen has not made any statements since the release of the prosecutor's REPORT on Friday, but he is scheduled to do so within the next day or two. The indications so far are that Chen will defend himself strongly and continue fighting to stay in office. While his explanations will be examined very closely, most people have TAIPEI 00003773 003.2 OF 003 already made up their minds whether they oppose or support Chen and they are likely to interpret his explanations in light of their own views. The third recall effort against Chen will fail unless a number of DPP legislators decide to take the extraordinary step of breaking with their party on a critical vote. The strength and persuasiveness of Chen's public explanation could prove pivotal. If there is a failed recall motion, the opposition will come under strong public pressure to try new tactics to go after Chen, for example, a "no confidence" vote against Premier Su. WANG