Taiwan Southerners' Views on U.S. Arms Procurements

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003736 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP, EAP/PD FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL TW SUBJECT: Taiwan Southerners' Views on U.S. Arms Procurements SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On October 17, at a Legislative Yuan procedural committee meeting, Taiwan's Pan Blue legislators once again blocked the U.S. arms procurements bill from the agenda for the next legislative session. Given that the Pan Blue opposition has blocked the special and supplemental defense budgets 62 times since September 2004, opinion leaders in southern Taiwan believe that U.S. arms procurements have become a political issue rather than a defense issue. AIT's entry into the debate has further highlighted the political nature of the discussion. They pointed out that the Pan Blue Camp, which holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan, has been determined to block all bills proposed by the DPP administration since it lost power in the presidential election in ¶2000. Local elected officials in the south worry that the Pan Blue Camp's blocking U.S. arms procurements will sabotage U.S.-Taiwan relations. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) AIT/K discussed the arms procurements issue with a dozen contacts in southern Taiwan, including elected officials, scholars, businessmen, journalists and college students. Those interviewed represent a full spectrum of political leanings, both green and blue. All interviewees agree that U.S. arms procurements are necessary for Taiwan's ability to defend itself from possible attack by China. They believe that Taiwan should possess good-quality weapons for the purpose of self-defense or, at least, for demonstrating its defense capability to the world. The interviewees also stressed that the government authorities in Taipei should focus on trends in armaments to avoid wasting tax money on outdated U.S. arms procurements. ¶3. (SBU) In response to the Pan Blue Camp's blocking the U.S. arms procurement bill, Samuel Hung, a university professor in Kaohsiung, pointed out that the Pan Blue is targeting the DPP administration, not the arms procurement bill. Hung believed that the reasons held by the Pan Blue Camp are merely excuses made to justify its political maneuvering to achieve political ends. Hung went on to say that in response to Pan Blue criticism of the price, quality and content of U.S. arms procurements, Taiwan's defense authorities should make a greater public relations effort to let the general public know that those weapons are not of inferior quality, but are necessary for Taiwan to meet its defense needs and to maintain cross-strait peace. Hung said that the authorities should hold public hearings throughout Taiwan to send the message to the public that the most advanced weapons are not necessary to defend Taiwan. ¶4. (SBU) Zhan Yuan-hsiang, an IV grantee in 2005, held that high profile public efforts such as debates, TV commercials and public hearings will help consolidate mainstream public opinion to pressure the Pan Blue camp to pass the U.S. arms procurement bill. Zhan noted that given the fact that the opposition will not change its political stance on the arms procurement issue, the DPP administration should seek support from the general public by intensive and effective public diplomacy efforts. ¶5. (SBU) Taiwan Solidarity Union Kaohsiung City Councilor Zhao Tian-lin stressed the need for Taiwan to acquire defensive weapons because China has deployed hundreds of missiles targeted at Taiwan. In response to recent media reporting on expensive commissions paid to arms dealers in Taiwan, Zhao said that government authorities should make the procurement process more open and transparent to convince the general public that, compared to other countries, Taiwan is not paying more money for the same kind of weapons. ¶6. (SBU) Zhao also noted that the general public has become more skeptical and inquisitive about all arms procurements since the Lafayette Class Frigates procurement scandal in the mid-1990's. Zhao predicted that the U.S. arms procurement bill will not be passed before the 2008 presidential election, since the Pan Blue Camp will continue to block it until then in the hope the KMT will recapture the presidency. Zhao believed that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou will take a tougher position on the arms procurement issue after he finishes his term as Taipei Mayor. Now that AIT Director Young is seen as entering the political debate, Zhao said, he believed the AIT Director was simply relaying a message for the U.S. government and said his remarks help to attract a much greater Taiwan audience to the arms procurement issue. Zhao said although AIT Director Young's remarks (described by Pan Blue politicians as TAIPEI 00003736 002 OF 002 diplomatic intimidation and violating diplomatic protocol) may have upset many Taiwanese people, including some Pan Green supporters, the negative sentiment towards the U.S. government in Taiwan society will subside soon, since a majority of Taiwanese people believe that a solid, strong U.S.-Taiwan relationship is a warranty for Taiwan's national security. ¶7. (SBU) In response to the AIT Director's remarks on the U.S. arms procurement bill, Samuel Hung, a research fellow of the Taiwan Japanese Research Institute, pointed out that the KMT would still continue to block the bill whether AIT entered into the debate or not, since the KMT is betting on the U.S. mid-term elections in the hope that the Democrats will win the election. According to Hung, the KMT believes that Democrats will not press Taiwan on U.S. arms procurement since it encourages the policy of engagement with China and will avoid provoking China. Hung noted that the KMT will wait for the results of the U.S. mid-term elections to decide its position on U.S. arms procurements. Hung went on to say that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, under pressure from the U.S. government, will give the nod to the supplementary defense budget of NT$6.8 billion, currently under review by Taiwan's legislative branch, since Ma will not risk losing his perceived U.S. government support for his bid for the presidency. ¶8. (SBU) Kaohsiung University Professor Chih Cheng-ching pointed out that recent nuclear tests by North Korea may help consolidate public opinion towards a higher-dollar defense budget in Taiwan. Chih said that the new regional political movement in East Asia with possible military cooperation among China, Japan and South Korea will push the Taiwan government and its people to consider the theater missile defense program to safeguard the Taiwan Strait. Chih went on to say that with a perception that Japan and China will increase their defense budgets to counter North Korea's nuclear threat, mainstream public opinion in favor of increasing its defense budget will soon prevail in Taiwan. Chih also noted that the DPP administration should use this nuclear issue to promote U.S. arms procurement, since China, under pressure to deal with this issue, will have less interest in cross-strait affairs. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Although many U.S. arms procurements were proposed by the previous KMT administration, those procurements now are being criticized as wasteful and impractical by some in the Pan Blue opposition, especially the PFP. Regardless of the opposition's justifications in blocking U.S. arms procurement, there is a loud voice calling on the opposition to resume a reasonable supervisory role instead of carrying on a boycott against legislative review of the arms procurement bill. Many people in the south perceive that party interest has outweighed the national interest in this issue. They also believe that in the absence of effective government public relations efforts, the media and politicians in the north will continue playing a dominant role in interpreting this issue. End Comment. THIELE WANG