KMT TAIPEI MAYORAL CANDIDATE HAU CAUTIOUS BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003708

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT TAIPEI MAYORAL CANDIDATE HAU CAUTIOUS BUT
OPTIMISTIC


Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: Kuomintang (KMT) Taipei mayoral candidate
Hau Long-bin appears confident of victory in December, but
remains somewhat concerned that a split Pan-Blue vote could
weaken his mayoral mandate. Hau named DPP mayoral candidate
Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting) as his only real competitor, and
predicted that Hsieh would receive at least 35 percent of the
total vote, much better than current media polls indicate.
Hau will focus his guns on Hsieh, and ignore Pan-Blue mayoral
opponents PFP Chairman James Soong and independent deep-blue
legislator Lee Ao. Though Soong and Lee have "no chance of
winning," they could siphon enough Blue votes away to reduce
Hau's victory margin from a majority to a plurality. Hau
predicted that the content of the prosecutor's Presidential
Office investigation report could influence the mayoral race,
and that an endorsement of a candidate by "Depose Chen"
leader Shih Ming-te would also have some impact. Hau also
predicted that the KMT candidate will lose the Kaohsiung
mayoral race if he has less than a five percent lead on
election day, because the DPP will be able to buy enough
votes to win. End Summary.

Soong Campaign a Means to an End
--------------


2. (C) Hau told the Director that PFP Chairman James Soong is
campaigning for mayor to prove his "muscle" to the KMT. Hau
explained that, in the past, Soong claimed that if he ran for
president, he would draw at least 10,000 votes from each of
Taiwan's 18 counties. Since President Chen won the 2004
presidential election by less than 30,000 votes, if Soong
could control six times that amount, the KMT could not afford
to ignore him. Soong hopes to "prove" his political power by
drawing at least five percent of the vote in the Taipei
mayoral race. Soong hopes to prolong the life of his
political party through a power-sharing arrangement with the
KMT. In the short term, in exchange for his promise not to
run for president in 2008, Soong wants the KMT to set aside
city council and legislative seats for the PFP in upcoming
elections. In the longer term, Hau predicted, if Ma becomes
president in 2008, Soong will try to barter PFP cooperation
for seats in Ma's cabinet and other high-level positions
within Ma's administration.


3. (C) Soong's campaign has not done well, Hau told the
Director. Soong's polling numbers have failed to break into
double digits, even in the days immediately following his
campaign announcement, when a candidate would typically
receive a "bump" of at least a few points. (Note: Before
entering the race, Soong himself had predicted to the
Director that he would receive "at least a ten-point boost"
upon entering the race. End note.) Hau further predicted
that Soong's electoral chances would be adversely affected by
the "qi bao xiao ying" or "dump-save effect," which describes
when voters dump a first-choice candidate destined for defeat
to vote for a second-choice candidate who has a chance of
winning. Taipei voters haven't forgotten how Soong's
independent presidential campaign divided the Blue vote and
handed Chen and the DPP the 2000 presidential election.
Deep-Blue voters may not like him as much as Soong, Hau
admitted, but some will "dump" Soong in Hau's favor in hopes
of "saving" a Pan-Blue mayoral victory.

Hsieh Is Only Real Competitor
--------------


4. (C) Hau told the Director that DPP candidate Frank Hsieh
(Chang-ting) is his "only competitor" in the Taipei mayoral
race. Hau did not slight his opponent's potential, and
predicted that Hsieh would draw at least 35 percent of the
vote (twenty points higher than current media polls would
suggest). Hau and campaign advisor NTU Professor Zhuang
Wen-si discounted the accuracy of the media polls, and argued
that Hsieh's numbers were being suppressed by DPP voters'
embarrassment and frustration toward President Chen. Green
voters were less likely to admit support for Hsieh during
telephone polls, Zhuang contended, but would turn out in
greater numbers to support him on election day. According to
Zhuang, KMT internal polls showed Hsieh's popularity at or

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near 25 percent, and Hau at around 40 percent.

DPP Dirty Tricks on the Horizon?
--------------


5. (C) Hau predicted that Hsieh's campaign will make all
kinds of "false accusations" against him near the end of the
race, particularly relating to Hau's father, former Premier
Hau Pei-tsun, and his alleged involvement in the Lafayette
frigate scandal. To counter that strategy, Hau said he will
emphasize his personal integrity and encourage Hsieh to run a
"clean" campaign. The Director asked Hau whether his service
as President Chen's Environmental Minister and previous
membership in the New Party were political liabilities. Hau
told the Director that Soong may try to use these arguments
to appeal to Deep-Blue voters, but the rest of the Taipei
electorate would be unmoved.


6. (C) Two other factors will influence the election, Hau
told the Director: the prosecutor's Presidential Office
investigation report, and a possible endorsement from "Depose
Chen" protest leader Shih Ming-te. The prosecutor's report
will be released on or around November 7, Hau said, and
regardless of whether it implicates or exonerates Chen, Chen
will not step down. This will likely anger Shih's followers
and re-energize his movement. Hau predicted that Soong, who
sat by Shih's side during several earlier large-scale
protests, will try once again to share Shih's spotlight, in
hopes of luring more Deep-Blue voters to his side. Shih has
let it be known that he will also endorse a mayoral candidate
in the near future. Hau told the Director Shih will endorse
the Blue candidate that best passes Shih's "ethics" test.
Shih's endorsement will carry weight in the election, and
could enhance Soong's ability to "spoil" chances of a KMT
victory.

Split Pan-Blue Vote Could Threaten Mandate
--------------


7. (C) Hau told the Director he wasn't afraid of losing, but
of winning without a clear mandate. Soong and independent
Deep-Blue legislator Lee Ao have no chance of winning the
mayoral race, Hau asserted, but combined, they could steal
from Hau as much as ten percent of the vote. In a worst-case
scenario, Zhuang explained, Hsieh could draw more than 40
percent of the vote, making for an uncomfortably close race.
If he can't win by majority, Hau told the Director, it would
mean that KMT control of Taipei was vulnerable, and that he
would be governing Taipei without a mandate from the voters.

Kaohsiung Race "Dangerous" For KMT
--------------


8. (C) Hau acknowledged that the Kaohsiung mayoral race
between KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying and DPP opponent Chen
Chu is a "dangerous" one for the KMT. Hau and Zhuang told
the Director that, if election day comes and the KMT holds
less than a five percent lead in the polls, the KMT will lose
because the DPP will be able to buy all the votes it needs to
win. The DPP can't get away with vote-buying in Taipei,
Zhuang said, because the voters and the police are too
sophisticated. But that isn't an obstacle in Kaohsiung, and
the DPP has the apparatus and the know-how to buy the race.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Hau seemed calmly confident during an hour long
meeting. Most commentators agree that he holds a strong
hand, so long as Mayor Ma and his party don't waiver in their
support as Soong continues to harry the KMT with blackmail
over the former ruling party's "stolen" assets and over
threats. With 40 days left to go, we expect this campaign to
get uglier and more personal, and Hau seems willing to give
as much as he gets to preserve his lead. Soong and Hsieh are
likely to try to weaken this frontrunner by challenging his
experience and questioning his and his famous father's
integrity.

YOUNG