PEACEFUL ANTI-CHEN PROTESTS DISRUPT NATIONAL DAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003480

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2031
TAGS: PREL TW
SUBJECT: PEACEFUL ANTI-CHEN PROTESTS DISRUPT NATIONAL DAY
CELEBRATIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The "Depose Chen" movement held a protest
demonstration, estimated by police at 120,000, on the
perimeter of the October 10 National Day ceremony in front of
the Presidential Place. Other than occasional pushing and
shoving, the demonstration was largely peaceful, due to both
self-policing by movement organizers and a liberal deployment
of some 5,000 police and security forces who showed control
and restraint. President Chen went ahead with his scheduled
participation in the National Day ceremony, delivering an
impassioned speech that praised Taiwan's democracy and
appealed for unity despite being heckled by opposition
lawmakers. Ruling pan-Green and opposition pan-Blue members
reacted to the day's events in predictably partisan fashion,
underscoring that this is just the latest incident in the
continuing polarization of Taiwan politics. End Summary.

The Proceedings
--------------


2. (SBU) The "Depose Chen" movement held a protest
demonstration, estimated by police at 120,000, on the
perimeter of the October 10 National Day ceremony in front of
the Presidential Palace. Other than occasional pushing and
shoving, the demonstration was largely peaceful, due to both
self-policing by movement organizers and a liberal deployment
of some 5,000 police and security forces who showed control
and restraint. The protesters, led by former DPP chairman
Shih Ming-te, voiced their continuing demand for President
Chen to step down in response to corruption allegations
plaguing the Presidential Office. The rally, deemed illegal
for failure to apply for an assembly permit, jammed traffic
on several of Taipei's main downtown streets throughout the
day. Police phalanxes and barbed wire barricades, however,
kept the protesters several streets away from the site of the
ceremony.


3. (SBU) President Chen went ahead with his scheduled
participation in the National Day ceremony, delivering an
impassioned speech that praised Taiwan's democracy and
appealed for unity. A small number of opposition pan-Blue
legislators in the viewing stands wearing red, the color
associated with the "Depose Chen" movement, unfurled banners
and chanted slogans calling for Chen to step down. A defiant
and undeterred Chen blasted the opposition for trying to
recall him and raised his voice above the hecklers,
suggesting that the government should review the "necessity"
of holding the National Day ceremony next year given the
divergence of ideas and opinions. Playing to his
independence base, Chen concluded his speech by exhorting
"Taiwan" to "press forward" (jiayou) instead of chanting the
more traditional "long live the Republic of China."


4. (C) Following their morning "encirclement" of the
Presidential Office, "Depose Chen" demonstrators regrouped
back at the Taipei train station, the campaign's central
headquarters. Several of the pan-Blue legislators joined the
afternoon rally. AIT observed participants from a wide range
of age groups with families and kids making up a large
proportion. Overall, protesters were in high spirits and the
scene seemed like an election rally with a carnivalesque
atmosphere. Organizers had stations strategically placed
throughout the route to direct the march of protesters and
help control traffic flow. Several stations were collecting
signatures from participants to initiate recall motions
against individual pan-Green legislators. Campaign leaders
hope to cow the legislators into supporting the Presidential
recall motion slated for a vote in the Legislative Yuan on
October 13.


5. (SBU) Setting out from the train station in
mid-afternoon, the protesters reached the Sogo Department
store at 6:30 PM, paralyzing traffic along Taipei's main
shopping district. Shih, who had initially planned to stay
outside the store until 11:00 PM to protest Sogo voucher
gifts to First Lady Wu Shu-chen, changed his mind and resumed
the march, heading back to the train station around 8:00 PM.
Shih then staged a sit-in on the main thoroughfare in front

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of the station, declaring he would remain there until Tuesday
evening. Taipei Mayor and KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, in a
late night press conference, acknowledged that the rally was
indeed illegal under the terms of the required application
procedures and called on the protesters to disperse by
midnight. Ma and Shih then agreed on a temporary arrangement
to open up one side of the street for traffic but failed to
reach agreement on full opening. When protesters failed to
depart, anti-riot police moved in and by 4:00 AM had forcibly
but peacefully removed a dwindling number of hardcore
protesters from the street. The campaign continues its
sit-in at the Taipei train station, where it has a
demonstration permit to stay for the rest of the week.

Political Fallout
--------------


6. (SBU) Pan-Green and pan-Blue members reacted to the
preceding day's events in predictably partisan fashion. The
Presidential Office issued a statement criticizing Shih as
"irresponsible" for tarnishing Taiwan's national image.
During a press conference yesterday afternoon, DPP Chairman
Yu Shyi-kun lambasted opposition party members for turning
the National Day celebrations into a "farce." Yu added that
KMT Chairman Ma should be held accountable for failing to
restrain his party members and criticized the police for
allowing limited incidents of violence to break out.
Responding to the criticism, Ma said the Presidential Office
had "reversed cause and effect" by blaming protesters for
spoiling National Day and urged President Chen to understand
the people's grievances.

The Last Hurrah?
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7. (C) Soochow University professor and "Depose Chen"
movement foreign press liaison Emile Sheng told AIT that the
October 10 protest may have been the movement's last
large-scale organized activity. Movement leaders can do
little to generate further momentum, Sheng said, but future
events could decide whether the movement becomes violent or
simply dissolves. Sheng explained that some of the October
10 protesters "wanted more radical action," and many
expressed disappointment that movement leaders did not
authorize more aggressive protest actions. KMT legislator
and Depose Chen movement organizer Joanna Lei told AIT that
Shih Ming-te is struggling to rein in PFP-affiliated
second-tier protest leaders who advocated using violence to
embarrass Chen into stepping down. Noting that the
prosecutor's office will release its Presidential Office
investigation report soon, Sheng predicted that if Chen is
implicated and the pan-Greens abandon Chen to support his
recall, the movement could simply dissolve. However, if the
pan-Greens stand firm in support of Chen, or if the
prosecutor's report exonerates Chen, more radical factions
inside the movement may try to seize control, increasing the
risk of more violent protest activity.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The "Depose Chen" movement once again showed that it
could energize a substantial number of anti-Chen protesters,
mainly from the Taipei metropolitan area, to take to the
streets. While the number of participants at 120,000 was
substantial, it fell short of the 350,000 reached at the
initial "siege" on September 15. President Chen continues his
defiance and has not revealed any intention of stepping down.
Rather than weakening support for the President, the
anti-Chen protesters continue to drive much of the pan-Green
opposition to coalesce behind their President.
YOUNG