NSC SECRETARY GENERAL CHIOU I-JEN ON ANTI-CHEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003479

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: NSC SECRETARY GENERAL CHIOU I-JEN ON ANTI-CHEN
PROTESTS AND DOMESTIC POLITICAL SITUATION

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: NSC Secretary General Chiou I-jen told the
Director on October 11 that President Chen was "a little
angry" over the disruptive protests launched against him by
pan-Blue legislators at the October 10 national day ceremony.
Chen had agreed to participate in the ceremony, against the
advice of the National Security Bureau, only after
Legislative Yuan speaker Wang Jin-pyng (KMT) had assured him
that such protests would not occur. According to Chiou, the
continuing demonstrations calling for President Chen to step
down are not producing the intended result, but rather are
causing DPP supporters and the party to rally around Chen.
Nonetheless, Chiou predicted, Shih Ming-te will continue his
campaign against President Chen, even if the forthcoming
prosecutor's report exonerates the President. Chiou
characterized the current domestic situation as "delicate"
because of maneuvering by various political leaders. End
Summary.


2. (C) The Director, accompanied by DDIR and notetaker,
discussed Taiwan's domestic political situation with National
Security Council Secretary General Chiou I-jen on October 11.
This meeting followed the October 10 national day
ceremonies, during which a group of opposition pan-Blue
legislators displayed banners and shouted slogans against
President Chen, who was delivering his national day address.
Also on October 10, an estimated 124,000 protesters
representing the "Depose Chen Shui-bian" campaign led by Shih
Ming-te, demonstrated against President Chen outside the
police perimeter surrounding the Presidential Office area
(Septel).


3. (C) Chiou noted that Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang
Jin-pyng (KMT) had coordinated with the KMT LY caucus, the
Shih Ming-te campaign and others, and believed he had
assurances that there would be no disruptive protests at the
October 10 national day ceremony, for which Wang serves as
chairman. On the basis of these assurances, Wang persuaded
President Chen, against the strong recommendation of the
National Security Bureau, to participate in the October 10
ceremony. There were several possible explanations for the
protest by a group of pan-Blue legislators and others during
President Chen's speech. One was that Wang had misled
President Chen. Another was that the pan-Blue politicians
had violated their commitments to Wang. The most likely
explanation was that Wang had underestimated the potential
for such protest actions. President Chen was "a little
angry" as well as surprised by the chaos, after having
received Wang Jin-pyng's assurances, but he had calmed down
quickly in time for his subsequent meeting with the foreign
heads of government who had attended the ceremony.


4. (C) Chiou observed that the anti-Chen demonstrations,
which began September 9, are not producing the results hoped
for by protest leaders and are having only a small effect on
government functioning. The number of protesters on October
10 was down significantly from a march on September 15
(estimated by the police to be over 300,000),he pointed out,
adding that such demonstrations do not pose a serious problem
for the government. Ironically, one effect of Shih's
campaign and of Taipei Mayor (and KMT Chairman) Ma
Ying-jeou's toleration for its non-stop activities has been
to consolidate support for President Chen within the DPP.
Shih's campaign has caused DPP supporters to lose their
patience and they have strongly pressed DPP legislators to
speak out against Shih.


5. (C) Shih Ming-te will continue his campaign to pressure
President Chen to step down, regardless of the results of the
prosecutor's investigation of Chen and his wife Wu Shu-chen,
Chiou predicted, citing Shih's character and the fact that
Shih has already come to his own conclusions about President
Chen. While the Presidential Office did have some contact

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with Shih at the beginning of his campaign, it no longer has
such contacts. Even at the beginning, Shih was very tough,
insisting he would negotiate only if Chen agreed to step
down. The Presidential Office still has some indirect
contacts with people close to Shih, Chiou added, and they
understand that there are differences in the Shih movement
leadership.


6. (C) Rather than the demonstrations themselves, it is the
behind-the-scenes maneuvering and interactions among various
political leaders that makes the current political situation
quite delicate, Chiou said. These leaders include President
Chen, Ma Ying-jeou, Wang Jin-pyng, and the four potential DPP
presidential candidates: Premier Su Tseng-chang, Vice
President Annette Lu, DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, and Taipei
mayoral candidate Frank Hsieh. Wang Jin-pyng, Chiou
suggested, is using the current situation to present himself
as a balancer, the only leader with the potential to play a
middle role between opposing political forces. The
possibility of Wang splitting with the KMT is low, Chiou
observed, adding that Wang is very cautious and careful in
calculating how much support he can gain from different
sources.


7. (C) People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong hopes
to bnefit from participating in the demonstrations by
showing himself as the real leader of the pan-Blue, someone
who is tougher than Ma Ying-jeou, Chiou suggested. Ma, who
has wavered in his position on the demonstrations, has
declined in public opinion polls, and even some pan-Blue
supporters are now openly complaining about him. James Soong
is scheduled to finally announce on October 17 whether or not
he will run for Taipei mayor. Soong would split the pan-Blue
vote in Taipei, giving DPP candidate Frank Hsieh an
opportunity. Hsieh is hoping to gain ground on front-runner
KMT candidate Hau Long-bin by attacking Hau over scandals
involving his father, former Premier Hau Pei-tsun. On the
Kaohsiung mayoral race, Chiou noted that recent polling by
the DPP and the media shows the gap between KMT candidate
Huang Chun-ying and DPP candidate Chen Chu narrowing to just
four percent. The DPP hopes to persuade Taiwan Solidarity
Union (TSU) candidate Lo Chih-ming to withdraw, a move that
would help Chen Chu. While Lo seems to be wavering a bit,
former President Lee Teng-hui is still encouraging Lo to stay
in the race. Chiou added that the Presidential Office
maintains contact with former President Lee through Secretary
General Mark Chen.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) So far, as Chiou made clear, the anti-Chen protests
have not posed a threat to Chen's presidency. The big
question now is what the prosecutor's report will say about
Chen and his wife Wu Shu-chen when it is released later this
month and whether that could affect Chen's future. Unless
the report is very damaging to President Chen, the DPP,
including its legislators, will stand by their President
despite his low popularity. DPP leaders do not believe
President Chen's stepping down would help the party in
upcoming elections and they do not want to face the
inevitable infighting within the top ranks of the party that
would follow such a move.
YOUNG