PRESIDENT CHEN PROPOSES DISCUSSION OF NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003310

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN PROPOSES DISCUSSION OF NATIONAL
TERRITORY IN SPEECH AT DPP CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION FORUM


Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In his opening address to a DPP forum on
constitutional revision on Sunday, September 24, President
Chen proposed that serious consideration be given to dealing
with the question of defining national territory in the
process of constitutional revision. Chen's proposal does not
appear to directly violate the letter of his "four no's"
commitment, which does not cover national territory, but
raises questions about his other commitments not to
"surprise" the U.S. and not to deal with the issue of change
in national territory in the process of constitutional
revision. Commentators here believe Chen is trying to
consolidate his pro-independence support base, increase the
turnout for the DPP candidate in the December Kaohsiung
mayoral election, and divert attention from corruption
scandals and the movement pressuring him to step down. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) President Chen Shui-bian delivered an opening
address at a DPP forum on constitutional revision on Sunday,
September 24. In his speech, Chen proposed that serious
consideration should be given to dealing with the question of
defining national territory in the process of constitutional
revision. Chen asked the audience, "Under the premise of
maintaining the status quo, shouldn't more room be allowed
for Taiwan to fully this issue (of territory)? I recall that
in my New Year's Day addresses this year and last year, I
clearly declared that Taiwan is our country, which has a
total land area of 36,000 square kilometers. . . . When the
constitutional stipulation has left reality compromised or
ridiculed, shouldn't we, based on our demands for the
Constitution's legitimacy and rationality, our expectation of
and insistence on transitional justice, also give serious
consideration to dealing with a situation like this?"


3. (C) Chen's proposal for a discussion does not directly
contravene the "four no's" commitment originally contained in
his 2000 inaugural address and subsequently reaffirmed. In
2000, Chen pledged not to declare independence, not to change
the national title, not to include the two-state theory in
the constitution, and not to promote a referendum on
independence or unification. (Comment: Indirectly, however,
a precise definition of territory that limits the Republic of
China to currently-held islands may be interpreted as a
virtual declaration of independence. End Comment.) Chen's
latest move raises question about other of his commitments
not to "surprise" the U.S. and not to touch sovereignty
issues in constitutional revision proposals. More
specifically, in a meeting with AIT Chairman Ray Burghardt
and the Director on June 8, Chen "reiterated that because
social conditions are not sufficiently mature, especially the
current political atmosphere, none of the serious topics such
as issues related to sovereignty and changes in territory and
national name will be dealt with" (in constitutional
revision).


4. (C) Reactions in the media to Chen's proposal have
generally been negative, focusing on the idea that Chen is
again seeking short-term political advantage rather than
making a realistic proposal and that he is neglecting to
consider the potential negative effect on Taiwan's relations
with the U.S. and PRC. DPP legislator Lee Wen-chung
suggested that Chen's raising a "phony issue" would harm
Taiwan's interests. Does making the U.S. nervous benefit
Taiwan, he asked rhetorically. Some other DPP legislators,
while saying they would like to see a change in the
definition of Taiwan's territory in the constitution,
characterized Chen's proposal as unrealistic and likely to
provoke confrontation with the pan-Blue, increasing the
difficulty of constitutional revision.


5. (C) Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) legislators were more
blunt, charging Chen with trying to divert attention from
corruption scandals and the movement pressing him to step
down. They predicted Chen's proposal would provoke strong
reactions from the U.S. and PRC, Chiang Hsiao-yen even
suggesting that Chen might be hoping that external
difficulties would take the heat off his domestic political
problems. Several KMT LY members suggested to the ADIR on
September 25 that President Chen was using constitutional

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reform to distract the public from his corruption woes, and
to boost support for DPP Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Chen
Chu.


6. (C) Most debate within the DPP on constitutional
revision, including at the Sunday forum, has centered on
whether Taiwan should adopt a presidential or a cabinet form
of government. On October 4, the DPP's Central Executive
Committee is scheduled to vote on and approve a DPP proposal
for constitutional revision. The draft we have seen does not
alter the constitution's vague reference to national
territory. Once approved by the DPP, the constitutional
reform proposal will be sent to the Legislative Yuan (LY) for
consideration. KMT lawmakers told ADIR the pan-Blue will use
its procedural committee majority to block consideration of
any constitutional reform proposal. In any event, the very
high threshold in the LY for initial approval of
constitutional revision (three-fourths of a three-fourths
quorum) makes revision impossible without opposition pan-Blue
support Some KMT legislators fear that Chen could try to
circumvent the LY by calling for some form of referendum on
"constitutional reform."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Chen's gambit recalls his initiative earlier this
year to "abolish" the National Unification Council and
Guidelines (NUC and NUG),which he initially tossed out as a
topic for discussion and then later acted on. The situation
is different this time, however, because Chen had the
authority to take action on the NUG and NUC, whereas any
constitutional change would require difficult-to-achieve
approval by both the LY and a public referendum. Chen, who
is using the constitutional issue to try to consolidate his
Deep Green base, doubtless realizes the extreme difficulty of
constitutional change. He may hope realization of the near
impossibility of sensitive constitutional changes will lessen
the international reaction to his latest surprise.
WANG