WEEKEND OF BATTLING DEMONSTRATIONS: PRO-CHEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003214

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: WEEKEND OF BATTLING DEMONSTRATIONS: PRO-CHEN
RALLIES, ANTI-CHEN MARCHES


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Organizers of the ongoing sit-in aimed at
pressuring President Chen to step down will hold a "Besiege
the City" march on Friday evening, September 15. The march
will follow a route out of Ketagalan Boulevard, encircle the
Presidential Office and residence, and end at the Taipei
Railway Station. The "Depose Chen" sit-in has to move to the
train station for the next 5 days to make way for pro-Chen
groups, which hold permits to demonstrate on Ketagalan Blvd
in front of the Presidential Office during this period.
Pro-Chen groups, personally mobilized by President Chen with
support from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
are holding a "Formosa Sunrise" rally at Ketegalan Blvd on
Saturday afternoon, September 16, to counter the "Depose
Chen" campaign. Police will be deployed during this period
in substantial numbers to prevent violent clashes or
incidents. Weather may be a factor with a typhoon churning
along the east coast of Taiwan expected to dump heavy rain on
both Friday and Saturday's events. End Summary.

"Depose Chen" Movement Vows to Fight On
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2. (C) Shih Ming-te and other leaders of the movement to
oust embattled President Chen Shui-bian will continue their
campaign after a week-long, 24-hour sit-in on Ketagalan
Boulevard in front of the Presidential Office. At 7:00 p.m.
Friday evening, September 15, the anti-Chen protestors will
march out of Ketagalan Boulevard carrying flashlights and red
glow sticks -- representing their anger over Chen's alleged
corruption -- and march along a 3.5 mile route encircling the
Presidential Office and nearby residence, concluding by
midnight at the Taipei Railway Station plaza. The anti-Chen
demonstration will continue there until Sept 21, when it will
march back to Ketagalan Blvd. Protest leaders predict a
large turnout up to 300,000 or more for the Sept 15 march.
(Note: Their mass rally last Saturday afternoon brought out
80-100,000 people, though organizers claimed they reached
their goal of 300,000. End Note.)


3. (C) The anti-Chen movement is planning further activities
in their effort to topple Chen. During the camp-out at the
train station next week, it will hold marches on Sept 18-20
along city streets encircling the Presidential Office and
residence. There are also efforts underway to expand protest
activities to areas beyond Taipei; President Chen was greeted
by protestors in a recent visit to Kaoshiung. There has also
been discussion by movement leaders of calling a one-day
strike, possibly on October 10, Taiwan's national day, though
the idea of strikes which might damage Taiwan's economy has
aroused considerable concern. Both the KMT and business
community have come out strongly against this, as, naturally,
have the government and ruling party.

Greens Rallying Around Chen
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4. (C) The "deep-Green," pro-independence Taiwan Society is
organizing a "Formosa Sunrise" rally at Ketagalan Boulevard
3:00-6:00 Saturday afternoon, September 16, to "counter" the
anti-Chen movement. In a departure from its original policy
of "dealing cooly" with the "Depose Chen" movement, the DPP
has issued a mobilization order to fully support the Taiwan
Society rally, including busing in large numbers of rally
particpants from central and southern Taiwan. Rally
organizers are hoping for a turnout of 100,000. Despite the
mobilization order, not all DPP leaders will join the rally.
While DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun is returning early from the
U.S. to participate, Premier Su Tseng-chang and Taipei
mayoral candidate Frank Hsieh announced they would not attend
the rally, and Taiwan Society Secretary General Yang stated
that Vice President Annette Lu would not be welcome, because
of her apparent "ambition" to take over from President Chen.
According to press reports, President Chen is unlikely to
attend the demonstration.


5. (C) Premier Sun noted in a meetng Sept 15 with DIR that
President Chen had personally mobilized the rally. Su

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indicated that he disagreed with this decision because it
would only provide more fuel for the "anti-Chen" movement.
He also feared the possibility of violent clashes erupting
between the two opposing groups over the weekend.

Comment
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6. (C) AIT's contacts have told us that the non-stop and
often slanted media coverage of the anti-Chen protests has
galvanized Green supporters in southern Taiwan to rally
around President Chen and to demand that Green leaders
organize demonstrations to counter the anti-Chen movement.
But like Premier Su, many pro-government figures have
expressed concern that a large-scale pro-Chen rally could
prove counterproductive and increase turnout at anti-Chen
activities. AIT contacts on both sides of the Blue-Green
color divide do not expect the anti-Chen movement to succeed
in forcing the President to step down. Presidential
Secretary-General Mark Chen told the Director on Sept 15 that

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President Chen is not worried and plans a regular work
schedule this weekend. Rather than joining the anti-Chen
movement in any significant numbers, moreover, Green
supporters appear to be rallying around the President against
what they perceive as one more in a series of pan-Blue
political attacks.


7. (C) The greatest concern being voiced in Taipei is the
possibility of violence between the pro- and anti-Chen
demonstrators over the weekend. Shih has called on his
supporters to hold a "peaceful and loving" march tonight,
Sept 15. Presidential Police and security forces will be
deployed in sufficient numbers to maintain peace and prevent
the two opposing groups of demonstrators from coming into
contact with each other. There is, however, always the
possibility of isolated incidents of violence, particularly
as marchers snake their way through the streets of Taipei.
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