WEEKEND ANTI-CHEN PROTESTS PEACEFUL, CONTINUE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003146

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: WEEKEND ANTI-CHEN PROTESTS PEACEFUL, CONTINUE ON
SMALLER SCALE

REF: A. TAIPEI 03118


B. TAIPEI 03038

C. TAIPEI 03027

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Weekend protests aimed at "deposing"
President Chen were peaceful and attracted up to 100,000
people on Saturday, September 9. Turnout did not reach the
300,000 organizers projected. Organizers nevertheless
declared the turnout was a "strong statement" of the people's
disappointment with President Chen. Attendance on Sunday
dropped to around 10,000 under heavy rain. As people
returned to work on Monday morning, protesters at the sit-in
site on Ketagalan Boulevard dropped further to 2,000 to 3,000
people. With clearing weather by late afternoon numbers
were up to 5,000. President Chen, on the other hand,
traveled to Tainan county on Saturday to attend a rally
organized by his supporters and to Hualian to view an
exhibit. He continued to vow he will remain in office,
arguing that calls for him to step down without a
"justifiable reason" were "against the principles of
democracy." End Summary.

Number Estimates
--------------


2. (C) The "Depose Chen" movement led by former Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Shih Ming-te kicked off a
peaceful rally and sit-in on Saturday, September 9. Police
estimates placed turnout at around 100,000. Though far short
of the 300,000 expected to participate, organizers
nevertheless characterized the rally as a "success" and
insisted publicly that 300,000 had showed up. Soochow
University Professor Emile Sheng, a long-time AIT contact who
serves as the movement's international spokesperson,
acknowledged to AIT on September 11 that "realistically" only
around 100,000 people attended the event on Saturday. He
cited increases in local metro ridership, which was up
130,000 from normal weekend patterns, as evidence of
significant participation. While Sheng admitted some of the
increase in ridership was due to rainy weather, a significant
proportion appeared to be passenger traffic to the event.


3. (C) Turnout on Sunday dropped significantly, with most
public estimates at 10,000. AIT observers estimate the
turnout was between 5,000 to 10,000. Heavy rains throughout
the day presumably kept many would-be participants at home.
The start of the workweek on Monday dwindled numbers farther
down to 2,000-3,000, according to some local media estimates.
Two of six lanes on Ketagalan Boulevard, where the sit-in
continues, were open to traffic on Monday morning. By late
afternoon, clearing weather helped to boost numbers up to
5,000 and the whole street was closed off to traffic.


Crowd Composition
--------------


4. (C) The crowd on Saturday spanned a wide range of age
groups and, unlike the "trial" sit-ins the previous weekend
(Ref B),included many families with children. Participants
came from various areas of the wider Taipei metropolitan
area, rather than primarily from the immediate surrounding
neighborhoods. Despite some reports that several chartered
buses from central and southern Taiwan were going to bring
people to the event, Professor Sheng said the demonstration
was "spontaneous" and almost everyone came via public
transportation.


5. (C) Politically, however, the crowd appeared to consist
mainly of opposition pan-Blue supporters and was, thus, not
representative of Taiwan's political spectrum. Opposition
People First Party Chairman James Soong and Kuomintang (KMT)
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's cameo appearances at the rally gave
substance to their previous endorsements of the movement.
Unlike many political rallies in Taiwan where local Taiwanese
dialect is often the lingua franca, all official activities
on Saturday were conducted in Mandarin Chinese. Taiwanese

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was only occasionally heard, suggesting a significant number
of those participating were ethnic mainlanders or urbanized
elites who tend to be supporters of the opposition pan-Blue
parties. At one point during the rally participants became
clearly agitated and upset when one of the rally speakers
accidentally referred to the audience as "people of the
Republic of Taiwan," a term used primarily by extreme
pro-independence and ruling party supporters. In a meeting
with DIR late Monday, Legislative Speaker (KMT) Wang Jin-pyng
claimed that 99 percent were pan-Blue. He said that he did
not join the rally because he needed to maintain strict
neutrality as LY speaker.

Chen Strikes Back
--------------


6. (C) President Chen, on the other hand, traveled to his
home county of Tainan on Saturday to attend a rally organized
by his supporters. He vowed to remain in office, saying
calls for him to step down without a "justifiable reason"
were "against the principles of democracy." Chen expressed
his support for anti-corruption efforts, blasting the
opposition KMT as "Taiwan's biggest corrupt conglomerate."
He reiterated his pledge to continue his work on Taiwan's bid
to enter the UN under the name "Taiwan," promote a new
constitution, and support a referendum on assets stolen by
the KMT during its rule. Chen traveled to Hualian on the east
coast on Sunday to view an exhibition that was reportedly put
together with short notice.

Next Steps
--------------


7. (C) Organizers of the "Depose Chen" movement plan to
continue their sit-in on Ketagalan Boulevard for the
foreseeable future. Emile Sheng told AIT they have abandoned
their original plan to have 2,300 seats on the boulevard
because the complicated mechanism of musical chairs "was not
working out." Turnout, predicted Sheng, should remain at
around a few thousand people per day up until Friday, when a
red glow-stick vigil outside the Presidential Office should
draw more people. On Saturday the campaign will have to move
out of Ketagalan Boulevard to make room for a pro-Chen rally
organized by a DPP legislator. Sheng said "Depose Chen"
organizers have yet to determine their venue or activities
for that day. LY Speaker Wang told the DIR that there may be
plans to do "random" walks around the Presidential Office's
residence before the venue moves to the train station and the
Chiang Kai-shek Memorial. President Chen is certain not to
step down despite the protests, Wang asserted. Wang also
dismissed as empty talk public suggestions by Shih that he
will call for a popular "strike" against the government in
October if Chen has not stepped down.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) With a significant, though lower than expected,
turnout, organizers of the "Depose Chen" movement showed on
Saturday they could marshal a respectable number of people
who want to depose Chen. Despite being led by some former
members of the pan-Green camp, however, this movement
continues to be heavily pan-Blue in composition. The strong
presence of opposition parties compromises the movement's
impact by giving the impression of just one more Blue vs.
Green political tiff. Without the added pressure from
pan-Green heavyweights like Lee Teng-hui or the collapse of
support from DPP legislators and the rank-and-file, President
Chen appears likely to ride out this political storm.
YOUNG