TAIPEI PROTESTS SET TO SWING INTO FULL GEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003118

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIPEI PROTESTS SET TO SWING INTO FULL GEAR

REF: A. TAIPEI 03038


B. TAIPEI 03027

C. TAIPEI 02975

D. TAIPEI 02948

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Demonstrations calling on President Chen
to step down are set to kick off 3:00 PM on Saturday,
September 9. Shih Ming-te, leader of the "Depose Chen"
campaign, stressed during a press conference September 7 that
the event would be "peaceful and non-violent." He also vowed
to continue to hold the sit-in portion of the protest "as
long as necessary." Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
Chairman Yu Shyi-kun in a meeting of the DPP's Central
Committee on September 6 called on all party members to show
"self-restraint" and to avoid antagonizing the protesters.
"Depose Chen" organizers expect up to 300,000 people to
attend Saturday's event, but DPP contacts predict the actual
turnout will be much lower, closer to 100,000. Torrential
rains and thunderstorms forecast for the weekend could keep
many would-be protesters home. End Summary.


2. (C) The "Depose Chen" movement, led by former DPP
Chairman Shih Ming-te, is set to start its demonstration and
sit-in at 3:00 PM on Saturday, September 9. The sit-in will
take place on Ketagalan Boulevard, the main avenue leading to
the Presidential Office. A stage and 2,300 seats, which
protesters must reserve for 1-hour blocks, will form the
nucleus of the event. At 6:00 PM protesters at the sit-in
area plan to have a "silent" vigil and a special music
performance is scheduled for 9:00 PM. Shih said at a press
conference on September 7 that the sit-in will continue 24
hrs a day "as long as necessary," until President Chen
resigns or his term ends on May 20, 2008. He pledged the
demonstration would be peaceful. KMT legislator Lin Yu-fang
told AIT on Sept 8 that he and other KMT leaders had pressed
on Shih the importance of avoiding any violence, which would
discredit the "Depose Chen" movement and cost it popular
support. Lin, who had just returned from meeting with KMT
Chairman Ma Ying-Jeou, said Ma would likely make a cameo
appearance at the sit-in on Saturday -- "he has to for
political reasons, you understand."


3. (SBU) Taipei authorities, however, have only given the
campaign permission to use the sit-in area until September

27. Officials say they need a clear boulevard to prepare for
National Day celebrations on October 10. Officials agreed
earlier this week to allow the demonstration to expand onto
two adjoining roads on Saturday only. Protest organizers
plan to form a human compass, inspired by the Nazca Lines in
Peru, as a criticism of President Chen for losing his "moral
compass."


4. (C) The "Depose Chen" movement calls for Taiwan people
to oppose corruption and to pressure President Chen
Shui-bian, who faces allegations that he and his family
misused Presidential Office funds, to resign. Campaign
leaders stressed on September 7 that their movement is
"peaceful and non-violent." The ruling DPP has criticized
the movement as an "extra-legal" attempt to remove a duly
elected president. DPP leaders have called on the public to
let the judicial system investigate and rule on the
accusations against Chen. "Depose Chen" campaign spokesman
Emile Sheng countered on September 7, arguing the movement
was justified because the public holds grave doubts about the
independence of the nation's judicial system.


5. (C) DPP leaders have been keen to call for restraint
from all sides and to downplay the extent of support behind
Shih's movement. Chairman Yu Shyi-kun in a meeting of the
DPP's Central Committee on September 6 called on all party
members to show "self-restraint" and avoid antagonizing the
protesters. Yu has banned all DPP members from entering the
protest area, provoking the protesters, or inciting violence.
DPP legislator Winston Dang told AIT on September 8 that
Yu's decision to leave Taipei on Sunday for a trip to the US
shows the party leadership's confidence that the movement
will not gain wide support. According to Dang, internal DPP
polls suggest that over 95 percent of the participants in the

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"Depose Chen" movement are from the opposition pan-Blue camp,
which failed earlier this summer to recall the president.
Independent voters, continued Dang, will likely stay home and
are only marginally involved in the movement. Dang predicted
that at most 100,000 people would turn out. Separately, KMT
legislator Lin predicted the number of participants would not
top 100,000.


6. (C) In a press conference on September 7, the Taiwan
High Prosecutor's Office spokesman stated that President Chen
and First Lady Wu were now "key persons related to" the
ongoing investigation into the series of corruption scandals
plaguing the Presidential Office. The spokesperson revealed
that prosecutors had questioned the President on August 7 and
the First Lady on August 20 as a part of their
investigations. The lead prosecutor added that the President
and his wife were not just witnesses, but now "potential
defendants," and intimated they could be charged. (Comment:
The release of this information timed to hit newspapers one
day ahead of the protests could have been intended to stoke
public outrage and increase numbers at the protest rally on
Saturday. End Comment.)

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The activities this Saturday will be a key test of
the depth of support for the "Depose Chen" movement. The
campaign appeared to have lost some momentum last weekend,
with lower than expected attendance at its "trial" sit-in
activities. Heavy rain forecast for the weekend may also
reduce participation. Organizers seem to have put earlier
personality conflicts behind them, however, and the campaign
has once again begun receiving extensive positive media
coverage. While dissatisfaction within the DPP over
President Chen's alleged involvement in Presidential Office
corruption scandals remains, the party's faithful continue to
stick by their President.
YOUNG