TAIPEI PROTESTS SET TO SWING INTO FULL GEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003118 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2031 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: TAIPEI PROTESTS SET TO SWING INTO FULL GEAR REF: A. TAIPEI 03038 ¶B. TAIPEI 03027 ¶C. TAIPEI 02975 ¶D. TAIPEI 02948 Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Demonstrations calling on President Chen to step down are set to kick off 3:00 PM on Saturday, September 9. Shih Ming-te, leader of the "Depose Chen" campaign, stressed during a press conference September 7 that the event would be "peaceful and non-violent." He also vowed to continue to hold the sit-in portion of the protest "as long as necessary." Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Yu Shyi-kun in a meeting of the DPP's Central Committee on September 6 called on all party members to show "self-restraint" and to avoid antagonizing the protesters. "Depose Chen" organizers expect up to 300,000 people to attend Saturday's event, but DPP contacts predict the actual turnout will be much lower, closer to 100,000. Torrential rains and thunderstorms forecast for the weekend could keep many would-be protesters home. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The "Depose Chen" movement, led by former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-te, is set to start its demonstration and sit-in at 3:00 PM on Saturday, September 9. The sit-in will take place on Ketagalan Boulevard, the main avenue leading to the Presidential Office. A stage and 2,300 seats, which protesters must reserve for 1-hour blocks, will form the nucleus of the event. At 6:00 PM protesters at the sit-in area plan to have a "silent" vigil and a special music performance is scheduled for 9:00 PM. Shih said at a press conference on September 7 that the sit-in will continue 24 hrs a day "as long as necessary," until President Chen resigns or his term ends on May 20, 2008. He pledged the demonstration would be peaceful. KMT legislator Lin Yu-fang told AIT on Sept 8 that he and other KMT leaders had pressed on Shih the importance of avoiding any violence, which would discredit the "Depose Chen" movement and cost it popular support. Lin, who had just returned from meeting with KMT Chairman Ma Ying-Jeou, said Ma would likely make a cameo appearance at the sit-in on Saturday -- "he has to for political reasons, you understand." ¶3. (SBU) Taipei authorities, however, have only given the campaign permission to use the sit-in area until September ¶27. Officials say they need a clear boulevard to prepare for National Day celebrations on October 10. Officials agreed earlier this week to allow the demonstration to expand onto two adjoining roads on Saturday only. Protest organizers plan to form a human compass, inspired by the Nazca Lines in Peru, as a criticism of President Chen for losing his "moral compass." ¶4. (C) The "Depose Chen" movement calls for Taiwan people to oppose corruption and to pressure President Chen Shui-bian, who faces allegations that he and his family misused Presidential Office funds, to resign. Campaign leaders stressed on September 7 that their movement is "peaceful and non-violent." The ruling DPP has criticized the movement as an "extra-legal" attempt to remove a duly elected president. DPP leaders have called on the public to let the judicial system investigate and rule on the accusations against Chen. "Depose Chen" campaign spokesman Emile Sheng countered on September 7, arguing the movement was justified because the public holds grave doubts about the independence of the nation's judicial system. ¶5. (C) DPP leaders have been keen to call for restraint from all sides and to downplay the extent of support behind Shih's movement. Chairman Yu Shyi-kun in a meeting of the DPP's Central Committee on September 6 called on all party members to show "self-restraint" and avoid antagonizing the protesters. Yu has banned all DPP members from entering the protest area, provoking the protesters, or inciting violence. DPP legislator Winston Dang told AIT on September 8 that Yu's decision to leave Taipei on Sunday for a trip to the US shows the party leadership's confidence that the movement will not gain wide support. According to Dang, internal DPP polls suggest that over 95 percent of the participants in the TAIPEI 00003118 002 OF 002 "Depose Chen" movement are from the opposition pan-Blue camp, which failed earlier this summer to recall the president. Independent voters, continued Dang, will likely stay home and are only marginally involved in the movement. Dang predicted that at most 100,000 people would turn out. Separately, KMT legislator Lin predicted the number of participants would not top 100,000. ¶6. (C) In a press conference on September 7, the Taiwan High Prosecutor's Office spokesman stated that President Chen and First Lady Wu were now "key persons related to" the ongoing investigation into the series of corruption scandals plaguing the Presidential Office. The spokesperson revealed that prosecutors had questioned the President on August 7 and the First Lady on August 20 as a part of their investigations. The lead prosecutor added that the President and his wife were not just witnesses, but now "potential defendants," and intimated they could be charged. (Comment: The release of this information timed to hit newspapers one day ahead of the protests could have been intended to stoke public outrage and increase numbers at the protest rally on Saturday. End Comment.) Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The activities this Saturday will be a key test of the depth of support for the "Depose Chen" movement. The campaign appeared to have lost some momentum last weekend, with lower than expected attendance at its "trial" sit-in activities. Heavy rain forecast for the weekend may also reduce participation. Organizers seem to have put earlier personality conflicts behind them, however, and the campaign has once again begun receiving extensive positive media coverage. While dissatisfaction within the DPP over President Chen's alleged involvement in Presidential Office corruption scandals remains, the party's faithful continue to stick by their President. YOUNG