DUMP CHEN MOVEMENT BOGGING DOWN AS PRESIDENT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002975

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DUMP CHEN MOVEMENT BOGGING DOWN AS PRESIDENT'S
SUPPORTERS RALLY


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Supporters of President Chen sponsored a
rally in Taipei's 228 Peace Memorial Park on August 26 to
shore up support for the beleaguered president, lashing out
at organizers of an anti-Chen movement who are planning to
start their rallies later this week. While attending the
inauguration of an independent media watchdog the same day,
President Chen portrayed himself as "victim" of a media
controlled by opposition pan-Blue interests. The "Depose
Chen" movement, on the other hand, has gotten bogged down
recently, announcing its sit-down protest would begin only on
September 9. This has prompted the other anti-Chen
organization, the Democratic Action Alliance, to announce its
own demonstration Friday evening, September 1, calling for
Chen to resign. Both ruling and opposition parties have been
cautioning participants against letting peaceful
demonstrations turn into violent confrontations. End
Summary.

President Chen Supporters Steal the March
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2. (SBU) Pro-Green political commentators and a few ruling
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators jointly
sponsored a rally in Taipei's 228 Peace Memorial Park on
Saturday, August 26, to voice their support for a beleaguered
President Chen. Chen's staunch supporters lashed out at
former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-te for organizing the "Million
Person Depose Chen" movement, calling on Shih to end his
activities and criticizing other former supporters of the
ruling pan-Green camp for endorsing the anti-Chen movement.
Between 5,000 to 10,000 people, many said to have been bused
in from southern Taiwan, reportedly participated in the rally
in support of Chen. Despite some minor confrontations
between pro-Chen supporters and anti-Chen onlookers, the
demonstration concluded peacefully.


3. (SBU) During the inauguration of a new independent media
watchdog society over the weekend, President Chen portrayed
himself as a "victim" of erroneous media reports and called
on media outlets to exert greater "self-discipline." Chen
further cautioned that using extra-legal means to force a
duly elected president to resign could lead to violence, a
veiled reference to a fisticuffs started by a "Depose Chen"
supporter on a TV talk show last Thursday and an appeal for
all sides to reduce tensions. In a direct counter to Shih's
call for a "revolution," Chen added that preaching revolution
in a democracy was a "complete negation" of the democratic
system and a fundamental challenge to human rights and the
power entrusted to the government.

Upcoming Anti-Chen Activities
--------------


4. (C) Shih Ming-te announced at an outdoor press conference
August 28 that his sit-in will begin on September 9 and
continue until President Chen steps down. Having reached its
goal of signing up one million people and collecting NT$100
million last week, however, the campaign led by Shih has been
seen by many to be moving too slowly. Responding to media
inquiries, Shih explained that they need more time to prepare
logistics for the sit-in. Some have speculated that Shih has
used President Chen's September 3-6 travel to the South
Pacific as an excuse for delaying until the President is back
to face his critics. In the face of pro-Chen activities this
weekend, the lack of action from Shih's headquarters to date
has prompted some observers to question Shih's organizational
skills and to suspect that Shih is losing momentum. DPP
legislator Eugene Chao told AIT on August 25 that by the time
Shih starts his movement enthusiasm will probably have waned
significantly as mainstream voters are increasingly turned
off by the incessant political showmanship. Chao predicted
that Shih will be lucky to have a turn-out of a few thousand.


5. (C) The Democratic Action Alliance (DAA),another
organization that has come out against Chen, announced on
August 27 that it would launch its own series of activities
ahead of Shih's "Depose Chen" sit-in. DAA convener Huang

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Kwang-kuo said his organization will hold a "Democratic Night
Market" on Friday, September 1, that would last through the
weekend. The DAA has said it will work closely with Shih's
headquarters to coordinate activities. KMT legislator Joanna
Lei told AIT on August 25 that she and others from the KMT
have been working closely with representatives from both
movements to develop crowd-control and anti-violence measures
for the upcoming protests.

DPP, KMT Call for Restraint
--------------


6. (SBU) Over the past weekend DPP and KMT leaders urged
participants of both pro- and anti-Chen activities to remain
calm and avoid confrontation. The DPP announced last week a
policy of "no mobilization, no confrontation" toward the
anti-Chen movement. Moderate DPP legislators have been
calling for supporters and detractors to remain rational,
exercise self-restraint, and avoid personal attacks for the
sake of social harmony and national well-being. KMT Chairman
Ma Ying-jeou, who as Taipei mayor is responsible for
maintaining law and order, urged all participants to remain
calm while taking part in the rallies, and he announced a
"zero tolerance" of violence policy. Speculation continues
in the press as to whether Ma himself will participate in
Shih's movement, to which he earlier donated NT$100 as a
"private" citizen.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Despite the ongoing verbal exchanges between critics
and defenders of President Chen, it appears that calmer heads
may be prevailing in Taipei. The statements by both DPP and
KMT leaders, while in part aimed at disavowing themselves of
any blame if things turn violent, appear to be efforts to
inject some self-restraint and rationality back into what has
become a frenzied political atmosphere over the past two
weeks.



YOUNG