MAINLAND AFFAIRS COUNCIL PUTS POSITIVE SPIN ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002950 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016 TAGS: PREL ECON CH TW SUBJECT: MAINLAND AFFAIRS COUNCIL PUTS POSITIVE SPIN ON CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS REF: A. TAIPEI 02652 ¶B. TAIPEI 02618 Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young. Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary. According to Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu, cross-Strait negotiations will not be derailed by Taiwan outrage over what it sees as PRC deviousness in disrupting Taiwan relations with Chad. That said, the pace of negotiations might slow down a bit. Expansion of cross-Strait tourism is on track and there could be a final agreement as early as October or November. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During an August 24 call on MAC Chairman Joseph Wu, at which he introduced new AIT Deputy Director Bob Wang, the Director asked whether Chad's sudden shift in relations from Taipei to Beijing and the bitter bipartisan reaction in Taiwan (Ref A) had increased pressure on MAC and complicated further cross-Strait progress. &Not necessarily,8 Wu responded, explaining that the tourism and charter flight negotiations have been underway for a long time and would continue, though maybe at a slower pace. Nevertheless, he noted with visible discomfort, he had had to issue a strong MAC statement calling for a PRC apology, explaining that he "did not like to do this" and it may have appeared "a little emotional." Despite what may be a temporary slowdown in some areas of cross-Strait cooperation, Wu concluded, progress is continuing at a steady pace. Wu then gave the Director an update on cross-Strait negotiations and interaction in the three weeks since they last met (reported Ref B). More Steps on Cross-Strait Tourism Expansion -------------- ¶3. (C) Wu told the Director that tourism discussions are moving ahead. On Sunday, August 20, the PRC formally announced the establishment of its counterpart organization, Cross-Strait Travel Exchange Association (Haixia liangan luyou jiaoliu xiehui),setting the stage for MAC to formally announce on Friday, August 25, Taiwan's counterpart negotiating organization, the Cross-Strait Tourism Association (Haixia liangan guanguang xiehui). This will be headed by the Ministry of Transportation's Tourism Bureau Chief, who will serve as the chief negotiator for Taiwan with the participation of all relevant Taiwan organizations, both government and private. In response to the Director,s query, Wu insisted Beijing would accept the new Taiwan organization as a negotiating counterpart. ¶4. (C) Wu surmised that after MAC's Friday announcement it would probably take two weeks to set up the talks, then another month for the negotiations, with final unveiling of an agreement in October or November. The Director responded that the Taiwan and international business communities would be very pleased. ¶5. (C) In response to our query on prospects for raising Taiwan's 40 percent investment cap on investment in Mainland China, Wu replied that this "already difficult and complicated task" had been rendered much more difficult by the Chad shock. "We cannot even mention these issues after Chad.8 The Director urged a more pragmatic approach to cross-Strait issues: if a change would not specifically hurt Taiwan, then the government should assist business by making Taiwan a platform for doing business in China and Asia. For example, he noted, the debate in Taiwan about whether to allow 0.18-micron semiconductor manufacturing technology transfer to China actually involved older technology, which is already less advanced than some of the technology that the U.S. and other countries allow to be exported to the PRC under the Wassenar Arrangement. According to our contacts in the business community, the current restriction puts Taiwan firms at a disadvantage, forcing them to use technology that is four generations behind the technology they use in Taiwan. ¶6. (C) Wu replied that he had discussed this issue with President Chen, who agreed that permitting 0.18-micron TAIPEI 00002950 002 OF 003 investment in China would be the next step. He noted that he had urged Minister of Economic Affairs Steve Chen (Rui-liang) to push for an interagency meeting to discuss technology transfer, which NSC has now agreed to convene. &We are moving forward and we understand business concerns,8 Wu stressed, but matters that appear to be wholly economic are sometimes &highly political here in Taiwan.8 Chen Yunlin Visit -------------- ¶7. (C) The Director asked about the Kuomintang Party's (KMT) on-again, off-again application to bring PRC's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) Director Chen Yunlin and a delegation of 65 TAO and agricultural officials to Taiwan for an agricultural conference in October (reported septel). Wu responded that the KMT had "totally messed up" on this initiative. On August 1, without prior consultation with MAC, the KMT publicly announced its plan to apply a second time (the first application in October 2005 had been rejected by MAC) for the 66-member delegation to visit Taiwan. This politicized the application and challenged the Chen government at a politically sensitive time, Wu lamented. The subsequent widespread anger over the break in relations with Chad on August 5, he explained, effectively killed the invitation, a fact the KMT itself realized when it publicly announced the invitation was being postponed. Last Friday, August 18, however, the KMT changed and publicly announced that it would formally apply for the PRC delegation to visit Taiwan. Wu insisted that the MAC requirement for prior consultations between the governments of the PRC and Taiwan was not as unreasonable as it might seem, given that MAC and TAO aleady have contacts and the exact level and nature of the consultations is negotiable. To wit, he continued, MAC is quietly working on the possibility of TAO Deputy Director Zeng Lijun visiting Taiwan. GPA -------------- ¶8. (C) The Director queried Chairman Wu about Taiwan's perplexing coolness toward the agreement the U.S. and its friends had worked to facilitate Taiwan accession to the WTO Government Procurement Agreement (GPA). While he understood the exigencies of Taiwan politics, he continued, it was difficult to understand why Taiwan would reject a settlement that seemed so clearly to its advantage. Wu responded that he had sat in on some of the interagency senior-level meetings that discussed the GPA issue, explaining with emphasis that &some people8 had become quite emotional in their opposition to Taiwan acceptance of the agreed language. When the Director asked if this might include one of Wu's predecessors (i.e., Vice Premier Tsai Ying-wen),Wu just laughed and said this should not be repeated outside the room. Mid-Autumn Festival Charter Flights -------------- ¶9. (C) Chairman Wu told the Director that the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival charter flights, the first under the June 14 agreement regularizing holiday charters, would be on a smaller scale than the Lunar New Year flights. There would be 24 flights over a two week period, instead of the 72 flights at New Year. In response to the Director's inquiry whether international business representatives would be permitted to take these charter flights, Wu responded that while this was his goal -- &we want to negotiate more charter flights, and this includes foreign business" -- Beijing had rejected the idea, seeing it as discriminatory against PRC nationals, who so far have only been permitted to use the flights if they are the spouse or child of a Taiwanese investor in the Mainland. However, when the two sides reach a tourism agreement, Wu continued, this would open the way for more PRC nationals to use the flights and, he hoped, make further expansion possible. ¶10. (C) The Director replied that &allowing foreign business to take direct flights will make Taiwan more business friendly.8 Wu agreed, noting that his ultimate TAIPEI 00002950 003 OF 003 goal was regularization of cross-Strait charter flights to permit 800-1000 flights per year. Noting that Taiwan must first work out its own stance on charter flight regularization, Wu privately suggested to the Director that "AmCham should put cross-Strait flights in next year,s White Paper.8 (Note: AmCham has included a call for direct links in at least its last five White Papers and is likely to continue doing so. End Note.) Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Chairman Wu is well versed in the U.S. (Ph.D., Ohio State) and tends to put a positive spin on his conversations with AIT and other Americans (he will visit Washington in early September). Nevertheless, his optimism on cross-Strait tourism does not appear out of line with the possible, and his projections on cross-Strait tourism have to date been reasonably on track. YOUNG