TAIWAN SOLIDARITY UNION GOING ITS OWN WAY?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002853

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN SOLIDARITY UNION GOING ITS OWN WAY?


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Former President Lee Teng-hui wants the TSU,
once considered an appendage to the DPP, to "go its own way."
Lee is dissatisfied with President Chen and with DPP
polcies viewed as too much in favor of opening to China.
Lee has urged TSU candidates to stay to the end in mayoral
races in Taipei and Kaohsiung, which will make it that much
harder for DPP candidates to win. Some TSU legislators,
though like Lee, also critical of DPP initiatives to expand
economic ties with China, believe the TSU should coordinate
with the DPP in the 2007 LY elections. Otherwise, they
argue, both TSU and DPP candidates will suffer. Despite Lee
Teng-hui's objections to Chen, he has thus far refused to
join calls for Chen's resignation. End Summary.


2. (C) The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU),the junior partner
of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the Pan-Green
camp, has begun taking steps to distance itself from the DPP,
including casting abstentions in the failed Pan-Blue vote in
the legislature on June 27 to recall President Chen. Former
President Lee Teng-hui, the spiritual leader of the TSU, has
instructed the party, which was once viewed as an appendage
to the DPP, "to go its own way," according to TSU Legislator
Lai Shin-yuan. The abstention votes were a first step in
going its own way, and a second step was to withdraw from the
recent Sustainable Economic Development Conference (SEDC)
after participating in some meetings in order to express
opposition. Lee has told the TSU that their candidates in
the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections should stay in the
races to the end no matter what the results and that the TSU
also should fight to win party at-large seats in the 2007
Legislative Yuan (LY) elections. (Note: In addition to
electing district representatives, voters will cast a second
ballot for the party of their choice, with 34 seats being
apportioned to party at-large legislators in the 113 seat
LY.) TSU Legislator George Liu (Kuang-ping) told AIT that
the TSU LY caucus has decided to vote independently from the
DPP, even voting with the Pan-Blue on selected issues.


3. (C) Lee has told TSU members that he will no longer
support President Chen, because of Chen's unsatisfactory
performance on three issues: economic development, reducing
income inequalities, and cross-Strait economic relations.
Lai, who worked as a non-party official for four years in the
NSC during the first Chen administration, suggested that the
DPP was not prepared to govern when it unexpectedly won the
presidency in 2000. Although the Chen administration has had
six years to learn, it is still floundering in terms of
developing, coordinating, and implementing policies. Lai
added that Lee Teng-hui, who is concerned about a perceived
growing gap between rich and poor in Taiwan, wants the TSU to
be the party that represents the disadvantaged in Taiwan's
society. One reason the TSU wants to distinguish itself from
the DPP is to escape being tarnished by the current
corruption scandals surrounding President Chen and the DPP.


4. (C) TSU members have told AIT that TSU relations with the
DPP deteriorated during the December 2004 Legislative Yuan
(LY) elections. TSU Deputy Secretary General Liu Yi-te said
that in these elections President Chen and the DPP departed
from an earlier more moderate line aimed at winning support
from Light Green and swing voters. In the 2004 LY elections,
Chen and the DPP, hoping to win a legislative majority,
played up a "sense of crisis" and went after Deep Green
voters with a pro-independence campaign platform, undermining
the support base of the TSU as well as alienating moderate
voters. The elections did not turn out as the DPP hoped.
Overall, the Pan-Green ended up with the same number of seats
it had before, with the DPP gaining one seat and the TSU
losing one.


5. (C) Several other developments have also had a negative
effect on TSU-DPP relations, Liu said. While Lee Teng-hui
advised Chen to meet with People First Party (PFP) Chairman
James Soong in 2005, the former president disagreed strongly
with the ten-point agreement that resulted from the
controversial meeting between Green and Blue leaders. Lee
was also quite unhappy with Chen's policies to allow the
further opening of cross-Strait economic relations. In
addition, DPP and Kuomintang (KMT) agreement on a major
change in the LY structure disadvantaged small political
parties, including the TSU, further souring relations.

TAIPEI 00002853 002 OF 002




6. (C) TSU Legislator David Huang explained to AIT that he
and some other district representatives believe that
realistically the TSU and DPP will need to work together on
the 2007 LY elections or else both parties will suffer as a
result of competition against each other in addition to
competition against the Pan-Blue. The lack of such
cooperation, he suggested, would destroy the TSU, which
cannot survive without legislators.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The restructuring of the LY in 2007 will
substantially reduce opportunities for independents and small
parties like the TSU to win seats. While this might suggest
a need for the TSU to cooperate with the DPP, some in the TSU
are quite leery of associating their party with the DPP,
whose popularity has plummeted as a result of corruption
scandals. In addition Lee Teng-hui wants the TSU to distance
itself from the DPP, which he views as much too willing to
open to China. Despite Lee's objections to the DPP and Chen,
he has thus far not joined those calling for the President to
step down. Lee's hardline on cooperation with the DPP may
over time encourage some TSU supporters to break away from
the party. Given Lee's strong sway over the party, his death
or serious illness (Lee is 83) could trigger a crisis in this
small party.
YOUNG