KMT CENTRAL STANDING COMMITTEE ELECTION DOESN'T

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002636

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT CENTRAL STANDING COMMITTEE ELECTION DOESN'T
HURT MA

REF: TAIPEI 2536

Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: The recent KMT Central Standing Committee
election results did not hurt Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's
leadership position, a senior Kuomintang (KMT) official told
AIT. The KMT caucus is prepared to vote to approve
purchasing the P-3C anti-sub aircraft and PAC-II upgrades
this fall, according to the party official. KMT candidate
Hau Long-bin will win the Taipei mayoral race, but former
Taipei Deputy Mayor Yeh Chin-chuan, who withdrew from the
race before the KMT primary vote, would have been a better
candidate. End Summary.

Central Standing Committee Elections Don't Affect Ma
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2. (C) During a meeting with KMT Secretary General Chan
Chuen-po and Mainland Affairs Director Chang Jung-kung on
August 1, Chan told AIT that the outcome of last weekend's
Central Standing Committee (CSC) elections (see reftel) did
not indicate a significant shift of power within the party.
Press reports suggested that the increased number of
legislators on the CSC, and the defeat of former Taipei mayor
Ou Chin-de (one of Ma's close advisers) signaled a decline of
Ma's influence within the party. Chan said the press
frequently overplays power struggles within the KMT. The
party retains its original hierarchical structure and respect
for its chairman, he continued, and for these reasons is
largely intolerant of factions. Ou did not lose because he
was an ally of Ma, Chan argued, since the two other
well-known "Ma allies" on the CSC ballot (legislator Wu
Yu-sheng and Taipei City councilmember Lin Yi-hua) did get
elected. Ou lost because he did not campaign diligently.


3. (C) Chan also discounted press speculation that the
increased number of legislators on the CSC -- up from 18 to
25 -- strengthened KMT LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng at Ma's
expense. Chan said the new CSC "local election" format
naturally favored already well-known candidates, including
prominent business figures and legislators. In addition,
Chan said, Wang does not have much influence over the KMT LY
caucus, which takes its guidance from KMT Executive Policy
Director Tseng Yung-chuan.

Arms Procurement Just Around the Corner
--------------


4. (C) Chan repeated to AIT the party position that the KMT
caucus would support the purchase of the P-3C anti-sub
aircraft and the upgrades to existing PAC-II anti-missile
batteries, and that a defense budget to this effect could be
passed before the end of the year. This was assuming that
the MND and Executive Yuan submitted a workable defense
budget proposal at the beginning of the LY session in
September. (Comment: This all sounds good for U.S.
interests, but we've heard similar promises before which have
fallen prey to partisan calculations by the pan-Blues. End
Comment.) While Chan and Chang both expressed appreciation
for DPP Premier Su Tseng-chang's recent efforts to expand and
improve cross-Strait links, neither would rule out the
possibility of a no-confidence vote against Su after the LY
reconvened.

Taipei Mayoral Primary Process Culled the Better Candidate?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Chan said the new, more democratic KMT party primary
format may not have yielded the best candidate for Taipei
mayor. While Mainlander Hau Long-bin will win the election
handily, Chan predicted, former Taipei deputy mayor Yeh
Chin-chuan, a Taiwanese, would have won by an even larger
margin. Yeh was disadvantaged by the party's primary
process, Chan explained, as the format gives greater weight
to broad public opinion polls (70 percent) than it does to
the party membership vote (30 percent). This means Hau, who
enjoys broad support among the general population of Taipei
voters, held a significant statistical advantage over Yeh in
the primary calculations. In addition, Yeh never believed he

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had a chance of winning the primary, and was looking for an
out from the day Ma Ying-jeou asked him to run. Therefore,
Yeh was quite ready to quit the race after being forced to
apologize to Hau over an attack ad run by his campaign.


6. (C) Hau's problem is that he enjoys broad, but not deep,
support among the general voting population, Chan said.
Swing voters are fickle, and could turn away from Hau for
various reasons, or simply not turn out to vote. While Yeh
had solid support from the reliable Deep Blue base, Hau is
still viewed with suspicion because of his past defection
from the KMT to the New Party and especially his willingness
to cross party lines and serve as Environmental Protection
minister during President Chen's first term. Despite these
deficiencies, however, Hau is expected to win handily in
Taipei where the Pan-Blue enjoys strong support.
YOUNG