PFP CONSIDERING DESPERATE MEASURES TO GET KMT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002635

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PFP CONSIDERING DESPERATE MEASURES TO GET KMT TO
SHARE POWER


Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: A PFP campaign strategist told AIT August 1
that the party is prepared to fight dirty if KMT Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou continues to "arrogantly" ignore PFP power-sharing
demands. He claimed the PFP has evidence linking KMT Taipei
mayoral candidate Hau Long-bin to the Lafayette kickback
scandal, and that PFP Chairman James Soong will use this
evidence against Hau during his own mayoral campaign. The
PFP wants to cooperate with the KMT in jointly naming
candidates for the 2007 Legislative Yuan elections, but is
ready to oppose the KMT in every race if that cooperation
doesn't materialize. End Summary.


2. (C) People First Party (PFP) legislator and campaign
strategist Vincent Chang (Hsien-yao) told AIT August 1 that
it is "ninety-percent certain" that PFP Chairman James Soong
will enter the December Taipei mayoral race. Chang predicted
Soong's single-digit popularity rating will jump at least ten
points after Soong formally announces his candidacy, putting
him within striking distance of Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) candidate and former premier Frank Hsieh though still
well behind Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hau Long-bin. Soong's
chances are better than widely believed, Chang argued,
because Hau is not as clean as many voters think he is.
Chang claimed the PFP has information which proves that Hau
Long-bin was intimately involved in the Lafayette kickback
scandal. The PFP will release this information to the media
late in the campaign. Hau enjoys only lukewarm support among
Deep Blue voters because of his service as environmental
minister in DPP President Chen Shui-bian's first
administration, according to Chang. As Deep Blue voters
become increasingly disillusioned with Hau, Chang predicted,
they will transfer their support to Soong.


3. (C) Chang said that the KMT has repeatedly ignored PFP
calls for pan-Blue cooperation in selecting candidates for
the Taipei mayoral race and the 2007 Legislative Yuan (LY)
elections. Frustrated and angry, the PFP leadership has
prepared a study which they hope will convince the KMT of the
merits of cooperation. The study, drafted by Chang at
Soong's request, predicts that if the PFP runs candidates
against the KMT in each of the 73 new single-member
districts, the PFP, KMT, and DPP are likely to win 8, 38, and
22 seats, respectively, with independents and minor parties
taking the remaining five seats. In this scenario, the split
in pan-Blue voting gives the DPP 5-8 more seats than it would
win if the KMT and PFP cooperate. If the KMT refuses to set
aside certain races for the PFP, Chang said, the PFP will
nominate experts, young people, and popular local figures to
challenge the KMT in every single voting district.


4. (C) The KMT is arrogant in ignoring PFP requests to share
power, Chang suggested, adding that public support for KMT
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou is declining because he has been unable
to reform the KMT or help it shed its image as a corrupt
party. In fact, even though attention is currently focused
on the scandals surrounding President Chen Shui-bian, the
problems plaguing the KMT are far more serious and will
become increasingly more public. The PFP can play an
important role by giving pan-Blue voters a viable alternative
to the KMT, Chang asserted.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The PFP leadership is increasingly frustrated and is
becoming desperate over its prospects in future elections,
particularly the 2007 LY elections which will be conducted
under new electoral rules that disadvantage smaller parties.
Other than threats to run candidates against the KMT in the
LY elections, the PFP has two other forms of leverage. In
theory, a Soong campaign for mayor could split the Blue vote,
throwing the election to DPP candidate Frank Hsieh, though
Soong's abysmal poll ratings appear to belie that
possibility. In addition, the PFP caucus gives the KMT the
votes it needs to maintain a pan-Blue majority in the current
LY. If the PFP becomes less cooperative in the run-up to the
December mayoral elections, that could impair the KMT's
ability to call the shots in the fall LY session.

TAIPEI 00002635 002 OF 002



This cable was prepared by POL intern Eugene Chen.
YOUNG