DAMNED IF HE DOES OR DOESN'T: JAMES SOONG FOR MAYOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002569 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2031 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: DAMNED IF HE DOES OR DOESN'T: JAMES SOONG FOR MAYOR Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong plans to run for Taipei mayor in hopes of exchanging his last-minute withdrawal for Kuomintang (KMT) agreement to reserve a few races for the PFP in the 2007 Legislative Yuan (LY) election. Soong's popularity is stuck below ten percent, and with only twenty-one legislators left, the PFP has few other cards to play. Soong refuses to admit that his political star has waned. PFP legislators increasingly view Soong as out of touch, and grow tired of expending energy to promote his seemingly doomed mayoral bid. End Summary. ¶2. (C) PFP Public RELATIONS advisor Liao Wen-chang told AIT on July 31 that PFP Chairman James Soong believes he has no choice but to run for Taipei mayor, even though he has very little chance of winning. Soong's objective is to persuade the KMT to set aside perhaps as many as ten legislative races for the PFP in the 2007 LY election in return for his agreement to drop out of the Taipei race. Aside from withholding PFP cooperation in the LY, Liao explained, Soong only has one major bargaining chip left -- the threat of dividing the Pan-Blue vote in the all-important Taipei mayoral race. Soong's threat is mostly hollow, however, as he did not receive any noticeable bump in popularity after leading the recall charge against President Chen, and has yet to break the ten-percent mark in public opinion polls. The rumor within the PFP is that the party's own polling results, which Soong guards closely, also show Soong's popularity stuck in single-digits, Liao confided. ¶3. (U) Over the weekend PFP LY caucus covnener Lu Hsueh-chang bravely asserted to the Taiwan press that Soong continues to enjoy island-wide support from his days as Taiwan provincial governor. Lu estimated that if Soong ran for president in 2008, he could pull in at least 300,000 votes. Lu stated publicly that KMT Chairman Ma should allow Soong to represent the Pan-Blues in the Taipei mayoral race, instead of "forcing" Soong to run against Ma (and to play the "spoiler" role) in 2008. ¶4. (C) Liao, normally a loyal Soong supporter, said the PFP chairman sometimes seems "stuck in the past," irrationally refusing to accept that his POLITICAL career is coming to an end. Using habits formed when the PFP had more money and greater numbers, Soong refuses to meet with PFP legislators, forcing them to communicate with him through intermediaries. PFP legislators also resent pressure from Soong to "campaign" on his behalf, when they have their own POLITICAL careers to worry about. Liao closed on a sympathetic note: Soong is doing the best he can under very difficult circumstances to prolong the life of his party. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The PFP announced in late May that Soong would declare his mayoral candidacy no later than June 20. After that date came and went, party representatives then said Soong would declare before the end of July. Taipei City electoral rules state that all candidates must register before October 19. Soong did not get the boost he hoped for from pushing the recall movement against Chen, so he may be angling to make another play for the headlines before announcing his candidacy. Soong is purportedly doing all of this to stave off the demise of the PFP, but his threat to run against Ma in 2008 suggests his real goal is to preserve his own waning political power, since the LY elections will be over by December 2007. Unless his poll numbers improve dramatically, however, Soong's blackmail strategies are unlikely to work against KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who knows that time is not on the PFP's side. YOUNG