DIRECTOR MEETS KMT TAIPEI MAYORAL CANDIDATE HAU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002485

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DIRECTOR MEETS KMT TAIPEI MAYORAL CANDIDATE HAU
LONG-BIN


Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) KMT candidate Hau Long-bin told the Director on July
20 that he expects to win the Taipei mayoral election in
December, but the contest between him and DPP candidate Frank
Hsieh will be much closer than current polling suggests. If
elected mayor, Hau will focus on environmental improvements,
public construction, and the rededication of Songshan
domestic airport as a hub for direct flights to the mainland,
once cross-Strait hurdles are removed. Hau said KMT Chairman
Ma Ying-jeou will be the party's presidential nominee in 2008
because no one else has his star power or clean reputation.
End Summary.

Soong Will Enter Race
--------------


2. (C) Hau predicted during his July 20 meeting with the
Director that PFP Chairman James Soong will run for mayor,
primarily to use his candidacy as a bargaining chip in future
dealings with KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Hau confided that
the "mainstream" of the KMT does not consider Soong a real
threat, but some within the party think Ma should negotiate
with Soong to prevent him from splitting the party in the
2008 presidential race. Hau, who described his relationship
with Ma as "good" (but not close),said Ma refuses to
negotiate with Soong because Soong now has so little to
offer. Hau did not offer any opinions on what Soong might
actually want from the KMT. (Comment: Others have suggested
Soong would promise not to run for president in 2008 if Ma
agreed to withdraw Hau and to support Soong's candidacy for
Taipei mayor. We doubt if Ma sees any merit in this offer,
as Soong's limited appeal would almost certainly end up
losing the capital city for the blues. End Comment.)


3. (C) Hau said his camp has heard that Soong expects to win
as many as 100 thousand votes in the election, from an
expcted 70 percent voter turnout of 1.4 million. Hau's
senior campaign advisor, National Taiwan University professor
Zhuang Wen-si, discounted Soong's likely take to around five
percent (60 thousand votes),but said five percent could be
decisive in a close race. The Director remarked that the
most recent public opinion poll put Hau comfortably in first
place with 63 percent, compared to DPP candidate Frank
Hsieh's 27 percent and Soong's 8 percent. Hau said he
expected the race to become much closer after Hsieh's
campaign got underway, with Hsieh coming within five to ten
percent shortly before the December 9 election. Hau added
that Soong sees this mayoral race as his last chance at a
comeback, and will enter despite the virtual certainty of a
humiliating defeat.


4. (C) Hau professed to be unconcerned that the recent
reopening of the bribery/kickback scandal surrounding
Taiwan's purchase of several French-made Lafayette frigates
might affect his campaign for Taipei mayor. Hau's father,
former KMT Premier Hau Pei-tsun, was involved in the decision
to purchase the French vessels over South Korean and other
competing ships, and was recently called to testify on the
matter. Hau asserted his father is innocent of any
wrongdoing. Because the scandal is six years old, Hau said,
minds have already been made, and the reopening of the case
will do little to change pro- or anti-Blue opinions set years
ago.

Hsieh Wins Even if He Loses
--------------


5. (C) The DPP pushed Hsieh into the race for Taipei mayor,
Hau opined, but Hsieh, who needs a public platform to
position himself for a 2008 run at the presidency, has his
own reasons for entering. Furthermore, Hau continued, since
no one expects the DPP to win the Taipei election, Hsieh will
raise his standing within the DPP by making this "sacrifice"
for the party, as long as he isn't beaten too badly.

Coming Back to the KMT
--------------


6. (C) Hau, a former New Party member and Environmental

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Protection Administrator during President Chen's first term,
said the KMT and New Party have always enjoyed "close"
collaboration. Hau explained that the New Party considers
itself to be the "true" KMT, having split from the KMT in
1995 over disputes with then-chairman Lee Teng-hui. Hau said
he had always intended to return to the KMT when its
integrity had been restored. The Director remarked that the
youthful-looking Hau and Chairman Ma seemed to have much in
common, and asked whether Hau had encountered resistance to
his mayoral candidacy from the KMT "old guard." Hau said he
had experienced little friction with the KMT older
generation, but he added that Ma Ying-jeou does face some
difficulties from competitors within the Pan-Blue camp,
namely James Soong, Honorary Chairman Lien Chan, and KMT LY
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng. Hau said he expects these tensions to
be resolved before 2008 because Ma is the only "superstar" in
the party, and no one can compete against him. This is
especially so, Hau said, because Ma is the "cleanest" member
of the party, and he stands in sharp and favorable contrast
to the corruption which seems to have riddled the DPP.

Pride Cometh Before a Fall?
--------------


7. (C) Because the KMT appears to be so dominant now, the
Director asked, could it become overconfident? If
second-tier potential candidates believe even they could
defeat the DPP opponent, is there a risk others might
challenge Ma for the nomination? Hau said Pan-Blue voters
have learned their lesson from past setbacks, and will cull
weaker candidates during the party primary process. As for
potential Blue candidates, Hau said he is not worried about
Lien Chan entering the presidential race, but is less sure
about Wang Jin-pyng, who might be angling for the vice
presidential slot on Ma's ticket.

Campaign Promises
--------------


8. (C) If elected mayor, Hau's top priority will be to clean
up the Taipei environment, particularly the Danshui river,
and to improve and expand upon several ongoing large-scale
construction projects, including the Taipei Metro system.
The Songshan domestic airport should become a hub for direct
flights between Taipei and Shanghai, Hau said, or, failing
that, between Taipei and Macao or Hong Kong. Hau said he
also intends to implement a "zero-tolerance" anti-crime
policy, and to improve the performance and attitude of
Taipei's civil service corps.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Of the three mayoral candidates, Hau comes across as
the most self assured in discussing his plans for Taipei,
talking confidently about improving transportation and
environmental aspects of this thriving capital city if
elected. By contrast, Hsieh and Soong give the impression
they are primarily trying to leverage their participation in
the race for broader political goals, a perception that may
hurt them with sophisticated Taipei voters.
YOUNG