TAIWAN FRETTING OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002480 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2031 TAGS: PGOV TW NU SUBJECT: TAIWAN FRETTING OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. Action request--see paragraph 8. ¶2. (C) Summary: Taiwan MOFA official Ko Jai-son expressed concern to AIT that multiple candidates opposing Sandinista's Daniel Ortega in the November Nicaraguan presidential election would give the election to Ortega, resulting in a switch in diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Ko urged the US to encourage the anti-Sandinista candidates to cooperate and field a single candidate against Ortega. End Summary. ¶3. (C) Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Director General for Central and South American Affairs Jai-son Ko requested a meeting with AIT on July 19 to express concern that the recent death of Daniel Ortega's Sandinista rival gives the Sandinistas a good chance to win a slim victory in the upcoming election. Ko cited polls obtained by MOFA that show Ortega's standing has risen to 30 percent, a six point advantage over his nearest challenger, Eduardo Montealegre, and nine points ahead of Montealegre's rival for the anti-Sandinista vote, Jose Rizo. ¶4. (C) Ko asked the US to convince Montealegre to accept a recent proposal from Rizo that calls for the candidate lowest in the polls at a mutually agreed date to withdraw from the race. Ko said MOFA has sent instructions to TECRO to pursue this issue with DOS and is confident that if Taipei and the US can persuade Montealegre to accept the proposal then the anti-Sandinistas will remain in power. ¶5. (C) Ko told AIT that Venezuelan influence in Nicaragua is growing and could further tilt the election in Ortega's favor. Ko claimed Venezuela has been helping the Sandinistas shore up support among rural voters by providing the Sandinistas with cheap fertilizer and other oil products to distribute throughout the countryside. Ko further commented these are the same tactics Taipei has seen Venezuelan President Chavez use with Nicaragua's neighbors to expand Venezuela's clout in the region. ¶6. (C) Ko added that for now the PRC has not meddled in the Nicaraguan elections, but noted that MOFA is watching carefully developments in the wake of exchanges between the PRC Foreign Minister and Costa Rican, Nicaraguan, and Honduran representatives that were brokered by the Mexican Foreign Minister in May. Ko said at the meeting in Mexico City the PRC threatened the three countries would "get no economic benefits in the future" from the PRC if they continue to recognize Taipei. Ko said Mexico is working to arrange further meetings between representatives from the three countries and the PRC at the UN, but Nicaragua has so far refused to attend after taking the PRC comments in Mexico as an "insult." ¶7. (C) Despite MOFA concerns over the future of its formal diplomatic ties to Nicaragua and other Latin American allies, Taipei continues to push an aggressive economic diplomacy by promoting free trade agreements with partners in the region. Last week Taiwan's cabinet approved a newly-signed FTA with Nicaragua, which is the third FTA Taiwan has negotiated with its allies, following Panama and Guatemala. Comment and Action Request -------------- ¶8. (C) MOFA officials expect that a Sandinista government will switch recognition to the PRC and result in the loss of a key diplomatic ally in Central America for Taiwan. AIT would appreciate Department guidance on discussing this issue with Taiwan officials. YOUNG