KMT HONORARY CHAIRMAN LIEN CHAN ON PRESIDENT CHEN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002440

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: KMT HONORARY CHAIRMAN LIEN CHAN ON PRESIDENT CHEN,
DEFENSE


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan strongly
criticized President Chen for organizing his policies around
the "totally impractical" goal of Taiwan independence, during
a meeting with the Director on July 18. Chen's policies have
negatively affected relations with allies as well as progress
on the economy and domestic issues. "Mr. Chen" has lost the
ability to lead, and the most important task for the Pan-Blue
is to create conditions to force his resignation, Lien
stated. Noting that democratic development involves growing
pains, the Director said that the key to Taiwan's future is
subordinating partisan politics to Taiwan's overall
interests, especially on defense issues. The Director urged
Taiwan to act now on arms procurement, while President Bush,
a good friend of Taiwan, is still in office. Lien agreed,
and promised to urge Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and other KMT
leaders to support reasonable arms procurement. End summary.


2. (C) In a meeting with Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan on
July 18, the Director expressed concern that for some time
both the U.S. and Taiwan seem to have been spending less
energy managing and developing their relationship. Lien
agreed, and blamed the disorganization and inexperience of
the Chen administration for a deterioration in Taiwan's
relationship with the U.S. The Chen administration is
plagued by the lack of an "overall orientation" toward the
United States, Japan, Europe, and neighboring countries in
Southeast Asia. It has organized its policies around the
"totally impractical" notion of Taiwan independence, and as a
result, Lien argued, Taiwan's domestic and international
political affairs have been led astray for the past six
years.


3. (C) By any yardstick, Lien claimed, Taiwan has not
progressed: its democratic development has stalled, its
judiciary is no more independent than when Chen took office,
and media reporting quality has continued to decline. Taiwan
is also losing out on crucial economic opportunities in the
Mainland due to Chen's restrictions on cross-Strait trade and
investment. The "blunt reality," said Lien, is that "Mr.
Chen Shui-bian has lost the power to lead." The most
important task facing the opposition, he continued, is to
create the conditions under which Chen can be forced to
resign. The recall and no-confidence options each have their
advantages and disadvantages, which the KMT is still
pondering.


4. (C) The Director responded that Taiwan, like all
developing democracies, must work through difficult early
stages. The political deadlock, however, stems from the
notion in Taiwan that all politics is "zero-sum." Taiwan's
leaders must work to find common ground on issues of
island-wide importance to be able to formulate productive
policies, which the Taiwan people deserve. Of particular
concern to the U.S. is the inability of Taiwan's ruling and
opposition parties to reach agreement on the defense budget.
The sense among U.S. policymakers, the Director continued, is
that crucial improvements to Taiwan's defense are being held
hostage for partisan political purposes. The balance of
military power is gradually shifting to the PRC, and Taiwan
must improve its defensive capabilities to protect its
current freedoms, and to preserve the balance in any future
negotiations with China.


5. (C) Lien insisted that the KMT has always supported a
"credible defense" for Taiwan, and that KMT policy has not
changed. The United States remains Taiwan's most important
ally, Lien said, and Taiwan is especially grateful for U.S.
military assistance, which he described as one of the
"pillars" of the relationship. However, the defense budget
deadlock is solely the fault of President Chen's
procrastination and trickery, Lien claimed.


6. (C) The Director urged Lien to not dwell on the past, but
to look towards Taiwan's future. He reminded Lien that
simultaneous with Taiwan's presidential election in 2008, the
U.S. will also be electing a new president, and that it is
customary for U.S. presidents to re-evaluate and sometimes
change existing U.S. defense commitments. The risk to Taiwan
is that President Bush's successor could choose to take
current arms purchase proposals off the table. Now is the

TAIPEI 00002440 002 OF 002


time for Taiwan's political leaders to act responsibly to
improve Taiwan's security, while the opportunity exists.
Lien expressed agreement with the Director's remarks, and
promised to "help Taiwan help itself," by encouraging KMT
Chairman Ma, KMT LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, and others to
honor their public commitments to support reasonable arms
procurement.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Lien's personal animosity toward Chen Shui-bian, who
twice bested him in presidential elections, is evident. Like
many in the Blue camp, Lien has never viewed Chen as
legitimate, which explains the passion with which they pursue
his removal.
YOUNG