DPP Primary for Kaohsiung Mayoral election - High Stakes,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001945

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP

FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: DPP Primary for Kaohsiung Mayoral election - High Stakes,
High Tension

REF: A) 2006 TAIPEI 1380 B) 2006 TAIPEI 1461

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.


1. Summary: After much public and party debate on who should
represent the DPP in the December 2006 Kaohsiung mayoral election,
former Council of Labor Affairs (CLA) Chairperson Chen Chu garnered
80 percent of DPP member votes (19,765) during the May 28 DPP
primary to become the party's mayoral candidate. Legislator Guan
Bi-ling, who registered to run in the DPP primary, suddenly
announced her withdrawal from the primary on May 25 after the DPP
Central Standing Committee refused attempts by high profile members
to draft Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to stand as its
candidate. However, Chen's win in the primary does not end her
woes, as former-premier and former-Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh as
well as the Taiwan Solidarity Union's (TSU) Lo Chi-ming line up
against Chen Chu's candidacy, claiming her involvement in the KRTC
scandal bodes ill for a pan-green victory in Kaohsiung. End
summary.


2. Although incumbent DPP Legislator Guan Bi-ling and former CLA
Chairperson Chen Chu both registered early and campaigned hard for
the May 28 DPP primary former Premier Frank Hsieh and DPP Chairman
Yu Shyi-kun tried to include Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan in
the primary. In proposing to reopen the primary registration or use
only polling to decide the DPP candidate, they argued that winning
the Kaohsiung mayoral seat required Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Yeh
Chu-lan's universal acceptance by local factions and her pristine
image. Yeh, untainted by the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation
(KRTC) scandal, in which may of the DPP's most significant players
were implicated (see reftel A),arguably was the only candidate who
could guarantee the KRTC scandal won't harm the DPP this December in
its local mayoral election.


3. The DPP Central Standing committee overruled the two proposals
on May 24. In highly public arguments, Premier Su Tseng-chang and
New Tide faction leader Wu Nai-jen along with some other committee
members disagreed with Yu and Hsieh, emphasizing that fairness and
democratic procedure required adherence to party primary rules. The
committee then decided to maintain its original primary mechanism to
select its candidate for the Kaohsiung mayoral race.


4. When the DPP closed all doors to drafting Yeh, Legislator Guan
Bi-ling announced suddenly on May 25 that she would withdraw from
the primary and terminate her campaign, thus making Chen Chu the
sole candidate running in the primary. Guan stated to the press
that she respected the Party Central Standing Committee's decision,
but said that the real dispute of who is the most suitable candidate
really had not been resolved. However, for the sake of party
solidarity, she decided to end her campaign and gave her blessing to
Chen Chu.


5. A week before the primary, in an exclusive interview with the
China Times, former Premier Frank Hsieh stated that Chen Chu's role
in the KRTC scandal would definitely make her an easy target for the
opposition to attack. Hsieh opined that the DPP and Chen Chu would
lose the Kaohsiung mayoral election because she faces so many
obstacles to her election bid. Hsieh reiterated his support for
Legislator Guan Bi-ling. As reported in the June 2 Taiwan Times,
Taiwan Solidarity Union Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Lo Chi-ming also
struck out at Chen Chu, alleging a broad-ranging conspiracy theory
placing Chen Chu at the heart of the KRTC scandal and its
destructive aftermath. Chen Chu's campaign office responded that
Lo's allegation is baseless, urging the pan green camp to
consolidate and defend the DPP's rule in southern Taiwan.


6. Some local DPP members have expressed opposition to Hsieh's
interference in selecting a mayoral candidate, saying the primary is
part of the DPP tradition and regulations. They argued that if the
DPP yields to political pressure between local factions, it will
lose one of its few remaining demonstrated core values, that of
respecting and using democratic methods to select candidates. These
locals believe Chen Chu's strong lead in most polls clearly reflects
strong support among Kaohsiung residents.


7. During the May 28 primary, Chen Chu garnered 80 percent (19,765)
of DPP member votes making her candidacy irrefutable. Although Guan
Bi-ling has pulled out from the race, Chen Chu, however, now insists
that the DPP proceed on to the traditional second stage of a
primary, which is polling. Although Guan feels that is not
necessary, she has agreed that according to the DPP's primary rules,
a primary has to proceed into its second stages unless all

TAIPEI 00001945 002 OF 002


candidates agree to terminate the process.


8. When asked how she would build a coalition between factions (see
reftel B) after the primary, Chen Chu pointed out that the damage
done to the DPP by multiple instances of corruption is worse than
any existing factional struggle. In terms of being a "soft target"
for the KMT, she clarified that had she done anything illegal
Chairperson of CLA, she would have been exposed by labor brokers
long before the KRTC scandal broke. The DPP has lost people's
faith, she said, because of corruption in the DPP administration.
She strongly urged legal authorities to thoroughly investigate those
cases and remove involved officials from their posts. Only in doing
so could the DPP ever hope to win back the people's support and
faith. She described the DPP as a sinking boat, warning that while
the whole party's basic survival is at stake, no one should think
too far ahead to the 2008 presidential election.


9. Comment. Plagued by a relentless series of scandals following
the Thai labor riots (ref A),maintaining Kaohsiung City under DPP
rule seems to have become a goal of desperation for the party. Its
pleas to members and voters to maintain faith and keep a high morale
despite their disappointment and low popularity polls numbers for
President Chen reflect that sense of urgency. Calculating its
chance of winning Taipei's mayoral seat as slender, the Kaohsiung
mayoral election appears to be the party's last hope to provide
momentum and give the DPP a shot at winning the 2008 presidential
election. End comment.

THIELE

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