MA YING-JEOU: TOO GENTLE FOR JAMES SOONG?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001915

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: MA YING-JEOU: TOO GENTLE FOR JAMES SOONG?


Classified By: Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: The KMT rank-and-file is scrambling to take
partisan advantage of Chen Shui-bian's political and personal
miseries, but their Chairman, Ma Ying-jeou, seems inclined to
demure and delay. Instead of attacking Chen and calling for
his ouster, Ma has preached caution and patience. Angry KMT
and PFP supporters have called Ma weak and indecisive, and
fear his lack of strategic vision will cost the Pan-Blues
this valuable opportunity to get rid of Chen. PFP Chairman
James Soong does not expect the LY to approve his recall
movement against President Chen. Rather, his plan is to use
the recall bill and public protests to build a "social
movement" to force Chen to step down voluntarily. By leading
the charge against Chen, Soong seeks to cast himself as the
moral leader of the Pan-Blues, and thus to increase his
chance of winning the Taipei Mayoral race in December. Ma
won't lose the party over his gentle response, but he risks
once again missing an opportunity to energize the troops he
will need to win the presidency in 2008. End summary.


2. (C) President Chen has come under increasing pressure to
step down amid a series of scandals involving members of his
administration, his wife Wu Shu-jen, and other members of the
first family. The PFP and KMT agree that Chen should step
down to accept responsibility, but have split on how to
capitalize on Chen's misfortune. PFP Chairman James Soong
has endorsed a campaign to recall President Chen, and has
promised weekly protests until Chen steps down. KMT Chairman
Ma Ying-jeou has publicly opposed the recall because it has
little chance of overcoming DPP opposition in the LY and the
majority of voters do not want it. Ma has also expressed
concern about Chen's would-be replacement, the unpredictable
Vice President Annette Lu. He has not ruled out a recall,
but has urged Pan-Blue supporters to wait until the evidence
clearly implicates Chen and his wife. Instead of a recall,
Ma favors a no-confidence vote against the Premier, Su
Tseng-chang. If a no-confidence vote were successful, Chen

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could appoint a new premier or dissolve the LY and call for
new LY elections. This strategy could benefit the KMT, which
might win big against a DPP in turmoil. KMT LY President
Wang Jin-pyng, however, has expressed reservations about this
course, and Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan has publicly
criticized Ma for his hesitation.


3. (C) KMT Deputy Policy Director Chang Jung-kung told AIT on
June 2 that he, KMT Secretary General Chan Chun-po, Policy
Director Tseng Yung-chuan, and National Policy Foundation
President Tsai Hsung-hsiung had privately urged Ma to lead an
aggressive partisan attack against Chen and to support the
Pan-Blue recall bill. Chang told AIT that the majority of
the KMT LY caucus is frustrated with Ma, and that many senior
party leaders view Ma's hesitation as a sign of weakness. He
added that even though the DPP is in a state of free-fall
right now, Ma cannot afford to sit back and watch because
Lien Chan, Wang Jin-pyng, and James Soong are all competing
against him for moral leadership of the Pan-Blue movement.
Chang predicted to AIT that Ma would face harsh criticism
from party leaders during the June 3-4 Plenary Session of the
KMT Central Committee, and added that Ma must be willing to
take on Chen publicly if he is to ward off growing doubts
about whether he has the necessary conviction to lead the KMT
and the Pan-Blues.


4. (C) KMT Legislator Sun Ta-chien told AIT that Ma was in
fact criticized by party leaders during last weekend's
Plenary Session of the KMT Central Committee and that few KMT
leaders were willing to defend Ma's position (aside from
Policy Director Tseng Yung-chuan who, Sun said, was only
taking orders from Ma). Sun argued that more Pan-Blues would
have accepted Ma's "wait-and-see" approach if they believed
Ma had a strategy to oust Chen and was working to implement
it while waiting for the case against Chen to develop, but Ma
seems to be doing nothing.


5. (C) In contrast, Sun continued, James Soong is vigorously
pushing the recall bill, and strengthening his hand by
organizing protests and other forms of public pressure
against Chen. Sun said that while Soong is "too selfish" in
using the recall bill to boost his chances at winning the
Taipei mayoral race, Ma is "too gentle, too legal, and too

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clean" to seize this opportunity to get rid of Chen. Ma has
not and will not lose control of the KMT or his leadership of
the Pan-Blues, Sun said, but could be in danger of losing the
"moral leadership" of the Blues to James Soong if he doesn't
replace his "wait-and-see" approach with a coherent strategy
to get rid of President Chen.


6. (C) According to PFP public relations advisor Liao
Wen-chang, PFP Chairman James Soong knows the recall movement
has virtually no chance of passing the LY, but is using the
recall as a tool in conjunction with media and public
protests to shame Chen into stepping down voluntarily. At
the same time, Soong is cleverly raising his political
profile in advance of the Taipei mayoral race. Liao said
Soong's strategy is to remain at the forefront of the "social
movement" to recall Chen, all the while using his increased
visibility to attract more supporters to himself. On June 3,
Soong led a mass rally demanding Chen's resignation. Ma, who
had stated earlier that he would not attend, bowed to
pressure from within his party and joined Soong on the stage.
While Ma won't lose the KMT over his gentle response to
Chen, he risks once again missing an opportunity to energize
the troops he will need to win the presidency in 2008.
YOUNG