TAIWAN BUDGET SIGNALS CONTINUED POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 000189 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR STATE FOR EAP/TC, USTR FOR WINTER AND WINELAND, USDOC FOR 4420/USFCS/OCEA/EAP/LDROKER USDOC FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/ADAVENPORT USDOC FOR 4431/ITA/MAC/AP/OPB/TAIWAN/MBMORGAN TREASURY ALSO PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE/BOARD OF GOVERNORS, AND SAN FRANCISCO FRB/TERESA CURRAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2010 TAGS: EINV ETRD ECON PREL TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN BUDGET SIGNALS CONTINUED POLITICAL CONFRONTATION REF: A. TAIPEI 140 ¶B. 05 TAIPEI 4187 ¶C. 05 TAIPEI 3489 Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, REASON 1.5 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Legislative Yuan (LY) significantly cut and froze Administration budget proposals on January 12 to signal its unhappiness with government ministers and programs in many areas. KMT legislators say they want respect and real information from government agencies and will hold the money until they get it. ONE of the central issues at stake is KMT desire to push forward on cross-Strait economic policies while the DPP appears intent on tightening. Legislators imposed an unprecedented limit on procurement from Microsoft Corporation and attached conditions for reopening of the beef market. Pan-blue legislators maintained their earlier decision "zeroing out" all funding for three weapons systems slated to be purchased from the U.S. This tussling over Taiwan's 2006 central government budget has further complicated a cabinet reshuffle as Premier Hsieh steps down and former DPP party Chairman Su Tseng-chang steps in as Premier/President of the Executive Yuan. End Summary. Budget Tussle Expedites Cabinet Reshuffle -------------- ¶2. (U) On January 12, Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) passed the central government budget, but permanently cut 2.26% of total funds requested by the Executive Yuan (EY) and froze an additional 16% of requested funds pending further input from agencies. The large scale cuts, the largest since 1994, KMT LY member Su Chi told AIT, set off a period of uncertainty in the government and helped accelerate a cabinet reshuffle that had been widely expected. Premier Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting) reacted immediately on January 13 by declaring that the EY would return the entire budget to the LY for reconsideration, but when President Chen Shui-bian failed to endorse the Premier's tough talk over the weekend, the Premier turned in his resignation, the President accepted it on January 17 and the budget stands as passed on January 12. On the morning of January 19, Chen announced that former DPP party chairman Su Tseng-chang would be the new premier. New cabinet members SIPDIS have yet to be named, though there is widespread speculation that the principal economic figures, Vice Premier Wu Rong-i, Minister of Finance Lin Chuan, Minister of Economic Affairs Ho Mei-yueh and Chairman of the Council for Economic Planning and Development Hu Sheng-cheng, will all be replaced, possibly within a matter of days. The Budget Numbers -------------- ¶3. (U) The EY submitted its budget proposals in August 2005 seeking total government revenues of NT$ 1,412.5 billion (US$ 44.14 billion) and total expenditures of NT$ 1,608.2 billion (US$ 50.26 billion). On January 12, the Pan-blue controlled TAIPEI 00000189 002 OF 005 LY approved a budget that cut 2006 expenditures by NT$ 36.4 billion (US$ 1.1 billion) or 2.26% of the total planned expenditures to NT$ 1,571.8 billion (US 49.1 bQs^heociated with the special military budget to buy PAC-IIIs, P-3Cs and submarines from the U.S. The LY cut NT$ 10.9 billion slated for the PAC-III missile program as well as NT$ 300 million slated to prepare the way for future purchases of P-3C antisubmarine aircraft and diesel submarines. The combined cut of NT$ 11.2 billion represents 4.6% of the total military budget of NT$ 241.8 billion. The LY also cut another NT$ 11 billion that the military requested for replacement of old facilities and buildings. ¶5. (U) As was the case for the 2005 budget, this year the LY also targeted individual ministers by slashing their individual operating funds. For example, the annual pay for Government Information Office (GIO) Minister Pasuya Yao was reduced by NT$ 228,000 and his special allowance for 2006 was cut by NT$ 636,000. The monthly allowance for each of the Grand Justices was lowered 23% to NT$ 90.475. The LY also placed limits on who is permitted to use certain government facilities for meetings and entertaining. The recently renovated Taipei Guest House, for example, has new rules limiting its use. ¶6. (C) KMT LY members Chiang Pin-kung (also a KMT Vice Chairman) and Su Chi told AIT/T January 18 that the "chemistry" between the LY and certain ministers is poor. In addition to GOI's Yao, they cited bad chemistry with Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu. Chiang and Su went on to say that the ruling party makes little or no effort to work with the LY or "massage" LY members to explain government programs and policies. They contrasted the ruling DPP party practices with their own efforts to maintain good relations with the LY when the KMT was in power, Chiang was the Minister of Economic Affairs, and Su was the Chairman of the MAC. They said the LY budget actions are an effort by the LY to get the EY to show some respect for the LY. Revenue Cuts are Political Too -------------- ¶7. (U) The revenue cuts are politically motivated also. As reported in ref B, KMT and PFP legislators have strongly opposed the EY financial reform program and criticized its TAIPEI 00000189 003 OF 005 basic goals. With this budget the Ministry of Finance will not be able to sell its remaining 17% stake in Changhwa Commercial Bank, in which the controlling stake was sold to Taishin Financial Holding Company in 2005. This cut will undoubtedly further delay privatization of public-sector banks beyond 2006. LY Freezes Funds to Block Administration Programs -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) In addition to outright budget cuts, the LY froze NT$ 426 billion or 16% of total funding. The LY has used this tactic in the past to get the government's attention, but not to this degree. In retaliation for EY plans to reform the pension system for retired government workers (largely KMT appointed),schoolteachers and servicemen, the LY has frozen 2/3 of the funding for the Premier's office and all of the funding for the Ministry of Personnel Affairs. The LY is prepared to "defrost" (jiedong) the funds, but only after EY agencies seek LY concurrence with the pension system reform. Similar freezes have been imposed across a wide range of agencies, including operations of science-based industrial parks, the Fair Trade Commission, and many other agencies. Taiwan's executive agencies have been scrambling for several days and will continue to do so as they attempt to respond to the LY demands to be more forthcoming on programs and policies. ¶9. (C) Vice Minister of Economic Affairs Steve Chen (Ruey-long) told AIT/T January 17 that he is completely immersed in the budget matters for MOEA and that they consume all of his time. He remains optimistic that solutions will be found to defrost the currently frozen funding and emphasized that the normal process for defrosting funds is for the relevant agency to report to the LY and quickly get its funding restored. He said that the process at this time is mainly an inconvenience. Chen made it clear that from his perspective the proper response to the situation is for the agencies to go to the LY and report on all the various issues that LY members have raised. While Chen remains optimistic about defrosting funds that have been frozen, he said that Premier Hsieh's plan to have the full budget reconsidered was "entirely a different matter," suggesting that there was little support in the government for such a plan. KMT Wants to Find Solutions -------------- ¶10. (C) KMT legislators Chiang and Su emphasized to AIT/T that the LY actions in cutting and freezing funds did not impair the ability of the government agencies to carry out their operations and programs. If they had used U.S. budget terminology they would have said the LY was cutting the fat and not the muscle. Su, in particular, noted that freezing of funds did not in any way mean a permanent reduction in funding. He and Chiang said that the purpose of freezing funds is simply to encourage agencies to come to the LY and fully explain their programs. They both fully expect that TAIPEI 00000189 004 OF 005 funds will be restored for the various programs that have been affected. Chiang noted, however, that it is possible that LY Committees could, in the further review process, choose to reduce funding for projects if they find the EY agencies do not have a good justification for their proposed spending. (Comment: Vice Minister Chen's reaction above suggests that by and large the government agencies are preparing to report to the LY as Chiang and Su suggested and get their funding restored. End Comment.) ¶11. (C) Chiang said that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has been instrumental in shaping the KMT approach in the LY and been intimately involved in setting policy. Ma meets every Tuesday with a small, select group of advisers, including Chiang, to discuss the crucial issues. Chiang said the Ma comes prepared with the issues he wants to discuss and resolve. Su Chi added that this is strictly a working meeting; the group eats simple box dinners brought in to the meeting room rather than gathering at a restaurant with a formal meal. Chiang said that Ma wants the KMT to move forward and come up with solutions and ways to work with the government to accomplish goals. Ma wants to find ways to solve problems, not just block action by the DPP. Chiang and Su cited the formation of three task forces as examples of how the KMT wants to be constructive. ONE task force is to establish a KMT approach to military procurement and is to have its proposal ready by the end of February. The other two other task forces are to solve the long standing conflict over appointment of officials to the Control Yuan and to resolve the issue of completing Taiwan's High Speed Railway, which has been bogged down in financial issues for many months. U.S. Interests -------------- ¶12. (C) Besides zeroing out the long-proposed purchase of three weapons systems from the U.S., the LY also passed a provision affecting Microsoft Corporation and the reopening of the beef market. Ref A reported on the background of the Microsoft case. In addition to raising the issue with trade officials at the Board of Foreign trade on January 13, AIT/T also raised it with Vice Minister Steve Chen on January 17 and KMT legislators Chiang and Su on January 18. None of the three had any direct knowledge of the measure and called on aides to supply background information. The three all agreed that the measure was unusual in that it targeted an individual company but were unable to offer any immediate relief to Microsoft. At this point, we understand that the LY provision calling for a 25% reduction in central government purchases from Microsoft is in force and that EY agencies are probably preparing to respond to a provision demanding that agencies prepare a plan on how they would reduce their purchases. The LY provision regarding Microsoft notes that it is null and void if the provision is found to be in violation of Taiwan law. With a new premier named today and the expectation that new ministers will be named in the next few days, there is scant likelihood that anyone in TAIPEI 00000189 005 OF 005 the EY is going to step forward and declare the Microsoft provision to be legal or illegal under Taiwan law. AIT will continue to coordinate with Microsoft/Taiwan and pursue this issue with Taiwan officials. ¶13. (U) The beef issue is in a similar position of waiting for a responsible person to step forward. The Department of Health has been widely quoted in the press that its decision to resume imports of U.S. beef has been referred to the EY for final approval. AIT/T has confirmed that DOH has officially sent its report and recommendation to the EY. The resignation of the Premier and the pending dissolution of the cabinet leave open the question of who will now finally make the decision and authorize an official public announcement. The final outcome is now a foregone conclusion, but the continued delay in making an "official" announcement creates more opportunity for political sniping. Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) While it has been widely expected that Chen Shui-bian would select a new Premier, it appears that the flap over the 2006 central government budget has accelerated the timing and may influence the composition of the new cabinet. While not raised in any of the budget discussions, one of the central issues for the KMT and the DPP is Taiwan's approach to cross-Strait economic policies. The KMT is firmly convinced that Taiwan's economic HEALTH requires immediate attention to cross-Strait policies and wants to see implementation of the three links. The KMT has been disappointed in DPP refusal to move forward on pandas, tourism and regular flights and is pushing the issue in the budget arena. Chen, on the other hand, has announced his "active management, effective liberalization" policy, which has been interpreted as a tightening of cross-Strait policies. The next move in this drama will be the appointment of new Cabinet ministers. If the economic ministries are filled with people seen as opposed to cross-Strait economic integration then we can expect the Chen Administration to implement tighter cross-Strait policies and continued confrontation with the KMT and the LY. If more centrist people are appointed then it is possible that we could see more cooperation between the EY and the LY. End Comment. PAAL