PRC ACADEMIC SAYS "SHARED SOVEREIGNTY" WITH TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 001732

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: PRC ACADEMIC SAYS "SHARED SOVEREIGNTY" WITH TAIWAN
A POSSIBILITY


Classified By: Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (U) Summary: For the first time to our knowledge, a
well-known PRC academic affirmed publicly in Taiwan the
prospect of China "sharing" its sovereignty with Taiwan.
This suggests the possibility of a Track II-type dialogue
between the PRC and Taiwan. End summary.

PRC: Might Share Sovereignty With Taiwan
--------------


2. (U) On May 12, international investment brokerage company
CLSA hosted a three-way DPP-PRC-KMT cross-Strait forum in
Taipei. Shanghai Institute of American Studies professor
Ding Xinghao said China will not agree to talks on terms that
recognize Taiwan independence and sovereignty. Though the
PRC cannot accept the idea of separate Taiwan sovereignty, he
continued, Beijing might accept the notion of "shared
sovereignty" with Taiwan.

KMT and DPP: PRC Must Respect Taiwan
--------------


3. (U) Gallup Company Chief Consultant and KMT supporter Tim
Ting seemed to echo Professor Ding's remarks, while adding a
caveat. Ting suggested that China should trade in its
unsuccessful "Taiwan belongs to China" strategy in favor of
pursuing a "Chinese confederation," under which Taiwan and
China would "share" sovereignty. But, if China refused to
recognize or respect Taiwan's elected officials and its
democratic system, then any notion of a confederation would
be meaningless. Ting expressed the hope that Beijing would
be more willing to work on the sovereignty problem through
direct talks with a KMT-led government, if the KMT wins the
presidency in 2008. He predicted that if Beijing stonewalls
Ma like it has Chen, then the Taiwanese people will turn away
from Chin,and the cross-Strait situation will become even
more difficult.


4. (U) DPP Legislator Chuang Suo-hang asserted that the DPP
is flexible on cross-Strait affairs because it is pragmatic
and "election-oriented" and will do whatever will yield the
best results for DPP candidates. The DPP recognizes that
Taiwan voters are interested in better relations with the PRC
for economic and security reasons. According to Chuang,
President Chen will not accept the "One China" principle or
the 1992 Consensus, but would be willing to meet in the
"spirit of the 1992 talks." Chuang suggested that Chen would
be willing to visit the PRC without preconditions and without
his formal title, as long as he is afforded the proper
respect as the elected leader of the Taiwan people. The only
remaining obstacle, Chuang argued, is China's refusal to drop
the "One China" principle.


5. (U) Chuang said the DPP is willing to discuss "a wide
range of options" for improving cross-Strait relations, but
cannot do so without a willing partner in Beijing. He opined
that President Chen would be taking a considerable political
risk by trying to reopen formal dialogue with Beijing, but
would do so if there was a real possibility for improvement.
If Beijing were to offer Chen an olive branch, Chuang
surmised, the cross-Strait situation "could change very
quickly" for the better. On the other hand, if China
rejected a Chen overture, Chen's position would grow even
weaker, making him even more unpredictable and more likely to
shore up his deep-Green base at the expense of cross-Strait
stability.

Comment: "Shared Sovereignty"
--------------


6. (C) None of the participants in this one-hour forum were
official representatives of their respective parties, but it
is significant that Tim Ting and Prof. Ding both spoke of
"shared sovereignty," even though neither offered specifics.
While DPP legislator Chuang did not go quite that far, he did
stress flexibility. The fact that all three seemed to be
focusing on common ground rather than differences suggests
the possibility of a Track II-type dialogue in Taiwan.
YOUNG