MA YING-JEOU WEAK, EVEN WHEN HE WINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001551

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: MA YING-JEOU WEAK, EVEN WHEN HE WINS


Classified By: Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: KMT Legislator John Chiang withdrew last
week from the KMT Taipei mayoral race after nudging from KMT
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Ma wants the KMT to nominate a
Taiwanese candidate and apparently favors former Taipei
Deputy Mayor Yeh Chin-chuan. Chiang's departure, however,
probably has more to do with the twenty-point gap separating
him from the lead candidate, former Environmental Protection
Minister Hau Long-bin. End Summary.

Ma Using Proxies To Campaign For Yeh
--------------


2. (C) KMT legislator John Chiang announced his withdrawal
from the KMT Taipei mayoral primary on April 27, stating
publicly that he did not wish to see the party further
divided by bickering. Chiang told AIT that while he was
careful not to criticize Chairman Ma or to accuse him of
favoritism, Ma had improperly tried to sway the outcome of
the primary toward former Taipei Deputy Mayor Yeh Chin-chuan.
Chiang told AIT he confronted Ma shortly after Ma's mother
and elder sister had appeared at a campaign event for Yeh,
complaining that endorsements from Ma's family members were
tantamount to an endorsement by Ma himself, violating Ma's
promise to remain neutral during the primary. Ma responded
to Chiang with the excuse that he "could not control" the
actions of his mother and sister, and insisted he would honor
his promise to remain impartial in the mayoral race.


3. (C) Chiang told AIT that before deciding to withdraw, he
met with Honorary Chairman Lien Chan, LY President Wang
Jin-pyng, and again with Chairman Ma. Lien, he said,
"welcomed" his decision to quit, emphasizing that it would be
better for Chiang to "keep his options open" than to be "tied
up" by mayoral obligations. Wang, on the other hand, had
from the outset urged Chiang not to participate in a primary
which was, in Wang's words, "bound to be unfair." In their
most recent conversation, Chiang noted, Wang stated he had
"inside information" proving the primary was being
manipulated by Ma. Chiang did not share this information
with AIT, if he had it.

Ma Wants A Taiwanese Mayoral Candidate
--------------


4. (C) In his meeting with Ma one day before announcing his
withdrawal, Ma advised Chiang that his political future
"would be better" if he quit the primary race. (Comment:
Chiang implied that Ma may have been insinuating he might
offer Chiang a position in his administration if Chiang were
to withdraw now. End Comment.) Chiang believes Ma wanted
him to quit because Ma is convinced the KMT should nominate a
"Taiwanese" candidate for Taipei mayor. Chiang explained
that since the KMT mayors in Taoyuan and Taichung are both
Mainlanders, a "Taiwanese" KMT mayor in Taipei could help Ma
attract more Taiwanese voters in 2008. Ma favors former
Deputy Mayor Yeh Chin-chuan, the only Taiwanese candidate in
the primary, said Chiang. He is using proxies like his
mother and sister to promote Yeh, while discouraging
Mainlanders like Chiang and former deputy mayor Ou Chin-der
from running. Chiang said Ma controls the KMT's political
machine, and despite appearances, it will be Ma who decides
who the KMT nominee will be.

Smoke-Filled Room Better Than A Primary?
--------------


5. (C) After he dropped out of the primary, both Yeh and KMT
Legislator and primary candidate Ting Shou-chung approached
Chiang to ask for his support. Chiang declined to support
either candidate, saying he would decide later. Chiang told
AIT that a "worried" Yeh wanted the KMT to abandon the
primary process entirely. According to Chiang, Yeh wants the
Central Standing Committee to call Yeh, Ting, and current
front-runner Hau Lung-bin to a special "consultation
session," where the candidates can "negotiate" with party
leaders who should become the KMT mayoral nominee. Chiang
said this is how the KMT used to choose its candidates, and
although it is less democratic than a primary, it does not
generate the bad blood that a primary invariably does.

TAIPEI 00001551 002 OF 002



Bad Numbers Pushed Chiang Out, Not Ma
--------------


6. (C) Chiang said that although his polling numbers had been
improving over the past several weeks, he decided to withdraw
because he knew it would be an "uphill battle" for a
Mainlander like him to win the nomination, when Ma has made
it known the KMT needs a Taiwanese mayoral candidate. An
April 17 media public opinion poll showed Chiang in third
place, 23 points behind Hau Long-bin's 34 percent popularity.
Media opinion polls taken immediately after Chiang's
withdrawal suggest his former backers split evenly among
Mainlander candidates Hau Long-bin and Ting Shou-chung, who
received five and six-point bumps, respectively. Support for
Yeh Chin-chuan dipped by one point, to 19 percent.

Ma's Biggest Problem Isn't Soong...
--------------


7. (C) Chiang predicted that PFP Chairman James Soong will
run for Taipei mayor, and although it will be a "big
headache" for Ma, Soong will only siphon a few points away
from the KMT candidate, not enough to throw the election to
the DPP. Chiang also predicted former legislator Shen
Fu-hsiung will be the only DPP candidate for Taipei mayor.
Vice premier Tsai Ing-wen is popular and would make a strong
candidate, but has never run for public office and has no
desire to do so. Former Premier Frank Hsieh will not run,
Chiang predicted, because he wants the freedom to run for
president in 2008.


8. (C) Chiang told AIT that too many in the KMT take Ma's
2008 presidential victory for granted. Ma will need to unite
the KMT to win the presidency, but so far he has been unable
to bring Lien, Wang and PFP Chairman James Soong together
under his leadership. Chiang said Lien and Wang are
"watching Ma closely," hinting that both men would be willing
to exploit Ma's mistakes for their own political advantage.
Lien retains tight control over the KMT's cross-Strait
policy, and Ma "can only follow" Lien's lead. Meanwhile,
Wang has considerable influence within the LY on both sides
of the aisle, and still resents Ma's campaign tactics during
the chairmanship race. The ideological split between KMT
legislators from Taiwan's northern and southern counties is
real, said Chiang, and Wang is the key to brokering solutions
to those disagreements. If Wang doesn't cooperate with Ma's
agenda, Chiang continued, it will make it very difficult for
Ma to move forward on arms procurement or to deliver on other
promises.

Comment: Poor Numbers, Not Ma, Forced Chiang Out
-------------- ---


9. (C) Chiang's charge that Ma has interfered in the primary
by allowing his mother and sister to endorse Yeh Chin-chuan
is legitimate. But it is difficult to believe that Ma, who
is known for his non-confrontational management style, would
pressure Chiang to leave the race, if only for fear that
Chiang would run to the press. The more likely scenario is
that after weeks of polling a distant third, Chiang finally
realized he had little chance of winning the primary, and
quit. The rest is posturing for the public and AIT. Chiang
is the son of Chiang Ching-kuo and grandson of Chiang
Kai-shek. He has been involved in KMT politics for decades.
He probably sees himself as the rightful heir to his
forefathers' legacy, and Ma as an interloper, using the KMT
to gain the presidency. Chiang did not conceal his disdain
for Ma, and may be content to sit this one out, bide his
time, and wait for the next opportunity to assume his
rightful place in the party hierarchy.
YOUNG