PRC-VATICAN RELATIONS: TAIWAN INCREASINGLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001492

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC XR TW
SUBJECT: PRC-VATICAN RELATIONS: TAIWAN INCREASINGLY
CONCERNED

REF: TAIPEI 0648

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Recent conciliatory statements by Vatican and
PRC officials have increased Taipei's anxiety that its
diplomatic ties with the Holy See are in jeopardy. Taiwan
officials say they have no influence over the Vatican and
appealed to the USG for assistance and information on the
status of its standing with the Holy See. Vatican officials
in Taipei contend that the Holy See is now ready to enter
into an "official dialogue" to eventually establish
diplomatic ties with Beijing, but complain the media is
fueling speculation on PRC-Vatican talks. End summary.

PRC-Vatican Ties Moving Forward?
--------------


2. (C) In recent weeks Vatican and PRC officials have made
mutually conciliatory statements, suggesting that both sides
are willing to take steps to move towards normalizing ties.
PRC State Bureau of Religious Affairs Director Ye Xiaowen
stated publicly in April that Beijing "can establish
diplomatic relations with the Vatican very soon" if the PRC
and Holy See can reach an agreement over the selection of
Bishops. Yen added that the PRC and Holy See had been in
"continuing contact," but he admitted it was difficult to set
a timetable for normalizing ties.


3. (C) Vatican Foreign Minister Archbishop Giovanni Lajolo in
late March told the press that the "time is ripe" for the
Holy See and Beijing to establish diplomatic relations.
Lajolo confirmed the Holy See is ready to move its embassy
from Taiwan and added that the Vatican had already
communicated to the PRC and Taiwan its wish to move to
Beijing. Even Hong Kong's outspoken PRC critic Cardinal Zen
stated he was certain a formula could be found to overcome
PRC-Vatican differences and stressed the importance of
continuing contact with Beijing. Taipei, he added, was
"psychologically preparing" for a change in its status with
the Vatican.

Vatican Ready For Dialogue
--------------


4. (C) Vatican officials in Taipei told AIT that the Holy See
is ready to enter into an official dialogue with Beijing to
establish diplomatic relations. Vatican Charge d' Affairs in
Taipei, Monsignor Ambrose Madtha, explained that it has long
been the Vatican's policy to recognize the PRC. The Holy
See, he said, is in the process of taking "a step forward,"
but he asserted there is no timeframe or roadmap on when the
Vatican and Beijing will establish diplomatic ties. Madtha
complained that the media's constant speculation is
detrimental to any dialogue and press reports have greatly
exaggerated Holy See-Beijing efforts to establish a dialogue.
Cardinal Zen, Madtha noted, has also helped drive media
speculation with his frequent public commentary.

Taiwan's Anxiety Increasing
--------------


5. (C) The recent public statements by PRC and Vatican
officials have increased Taiwan's anxiety over the state of
its ties with the Vatican. Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MOFA) Director-General for Europe Larry Wang told AIT that
the statements were very alarming and suggested the Vatican
might first recognize the PRC and then try to work with
Beijing to resolve their differences. Wang said the issue is
receiving the full attention of the government, and President
Chen Shui-bian is personally following the Vatican-PRC
situation closely. President Chen, he noted, believes the
loss of the Vatican, Taiwan's only diplomatic partner in
Europe, would damage Taiwan's international image and
constitute a substantial victory for Beijing.


6. (C) Taiwan officials concede that if the PRC and Vatican
are ready to begin talks on formal ties, there is little
Taipei can do to influence the outcome, and it is only a

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matter of time before the Holy See abandons Taiwan (reftel).
MOFA's Wang said that the Vatican is not listening to Taiwan
and has already made it clear it will switch ties. Taiwan,
he told AIT, is looking to the USG for assistance. Wang then
asked if Washington had any information on what the Vatican
is planning and stated that Taipei hopes the USG will assist
Taiwan in its efforts to stabilize Taipei's relationship with
the Holy See.

Comment: On the Sidelines
--------------


7. (C) It is clear that Taiwan is on the sidelines watching
the Vatican-PRC dialogue. Taipei realizes the Holy See is
largely a symbolic diplomatic partner, but Taiwan officials
are most concerned about the international and political
consequences of a Vatican switch. Taipei is barely hanging
on to diplomatic partners in Central America and the South
Pacific. The Presidential Office fears that if Taiwan losses
the Vatican, other nations might follow, which would have
dire consequences for Taiwan's "international space" abroad
and President Chen's political standing at home.
YOUNG