Kaohsiung Mayoral Election - Preliminary Report

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001461

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP

FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: Kaohsiung Mayoral Election - Preliminary Report

REF: A) 2005 TAIPEI 4353 B) 2005 TAIPEI 3856 C) 2005 TAIPEI

3793 D) 2005 TAIPEI 4799

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.


1. (SBU) Summary: In the run-up to the DPP and KMT primaries, DPP
elected officials and supporters are urging DPP's Central Office to
recruit Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan as its candidate in the
upcoming December Kaohsiung mayoral election. Although former
Council of Labor Affairs chairperson Chen Chu is likely to win an
actual DPP primary, Yeh is deemed by pragmatists as a better
candidate because she belongs to no DPP faction and remains
untainted by the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation (KRTC) scandal
(reftels A, B, C). The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has announced
its intention to nominate its own Secretary General and Kaohsiung
City Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral election. Despite
Lo's many public calls for the DPP to work with the TSU to jointly
nominate a pan-green candidate to avoid splitting green votes, the
DPP's factional splits and low morale among local supporters prevent
that type of cooperation at this time. Riding high on KMT Chairman
Ma's reputation for party discipline and cleanliness, the ten KMT
hopefuls for the mayoral nomination have pledged to respect the
party's primary results and give full support to the party's
candidate, who is likely to be former KMT Kaohsiung vice mayor Huang
Chun-ying. Huang's popularity, academic prestige and administrative
experience as vice mayor, puts him out front as the KMT's best
candidate to recapture to Kaohsiung City's mayoral seat. End
Summary.

DPP Tensions, Postponed Primaries and TSU Pleas
-------------- --


2. (SBU) The DPP and the KMT have scheduled their primaries for
Kaohsiung City Mayor to May 28 and May 27 respectively. Both
primaries will determine mayoral candidates by judging the results
of party member voting (weighted at 30 percent) and public polls
(weighted at 70 percent). Results will be announced at the end of
May or the beginning of June. In order to ease tension among
factions, the DPP postponed the required primary registration date
from April 24 to May 1 to await former Premier Hsieh Chang-ting's
April 29 return from the U.S. Local DPP officials told AIT/K that
Hsieh plays an important role in the DPP mayoral nomination due to
his local influence as former Kaohsiung Mayor. Hsieh's associates
pointed out to AIT/K that central DPP authorities hope Hsieh's
inevitable influence in candidate selection will place the potential
loss of the yearend election squarely on Hsieh's shoulders.


3. (SBU) Although TSU has nominated its own Secretary General and
Kaohsiung elected Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral
election, Lo repeatedly has called on the DPP to work together with
TSU to jointly nominate a pan-green candidate in order to avoid

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splitting green votes. The DPP has never responded to Lo's pleas,
although local DPP officials have made it clear to AIT/K that a
split in votes between TSU and DPP could easily cost them the
election in the current climate of low morale among DPP supporters.


4. (SBU) Many other pan-green opinion leaders in Kaohsiung,
including DPP Kaohsiung Chapter Chairman Chao Wen-nan and DPP
Legislator Guan Bi-ling, have been urging the DPP Central Office to
cancel the primary and recruit Yeh Chu-lan to run in the mayoral
race, maintaining that Yeh is the only DPP candidate who can win the
Kaohsiung mayoral election. On April 25, nine Bureau Directors of
Kaohsiung City Government joined together to attempt to convince
Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run for mayor. DPP Legislator Guan
Bi-ling has pledged to withdraw her election bid if Yeh agrees to
run. Legislator Lo Chi-ming also urged DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun to
consider recruiting Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen to run for Kaohsiung
Mayor since neither Yeh nor Tsai is associated with DPP factions or
the KRTC scandal (reftels A, B, C).

Who's Who in Possible DPP Candidates
--------------


5. (SBU) Incumbent Legislator Guan Bi-ling has been competing
vigorously against the former Chairperson of Taiwan's Council of
Labor Affairs Chen Chu for the DPP's candidacy. As former Premier
Hsieh Chang-ting's protg, a Guan Bi-ling candidacy is interpreted
locally as a predictor that Hsieh is strong enough to make a run for
the 2008 presidential election. A Chen Chu candidacy, on the other
hand, is seen as a predictor of the strength of current Premier Su
Tseng-chang to capture the DPP's 2008 presidential candidacy. The

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fierce competition between the two has caused local DPP officials to
worry that the primary itself will deeply split DPP supporters'

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former solidarity.


6. (SBU) In order to avoid a potential split caused by the primary,
some local DPP officials and members have suggested the DPP Central
Office recruit the Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run because
she has no affiliation with any DPP faction and her performance as
Kaohsiung Acting Mayor has been widely-praised. Yeh has declined
the suggestion after a discussion with President Chen Shui-bian.


7. (SBU) Former acting Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chi-mai reportedly has
cancelled his election plan after his father, Chen Che-nan, was
detained for fraud charges two weeks ago. According to a former
mayoral assistant, Chen Chi-mai is helping his father with the legal
cases piling up against him and has no plans to run for any elected
offices in the foreseeable future. General Kaohsiung sentiment is
that the Chen Che-nan corruption scandal has ruined his son's
formerly bright political career by destroying public trust in the
entire Chen family.

Who's Who on the KMT Side
--------------


8. (U) Encouraged by the KMT's strong Southern performance in the
December "3 in 1 elections" (ref D) and by Acting Mayor Yeh
Chu-lan's continued insistence she will not run, ten candidates have
registered for the KMT primary. They are:

a. Chen Shei-saint - former Taipei City Legislator

b. Chiu Yi - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator

c. Huang Chao-shun - incumbent Legislator-at-large

d. Huang Chun-ying - former Kaohsiung City Vice Mayor and KMT's 2002
mayoral candidate

e. Lai Feng-wei - former Penghu County Magistrate

f. Huang Chi-chuan - former Kaohsiung City Council Speaker

g. Lee Chuan-chiao -incumbent Tainan County Legislator

h. Lee Fu-hsing - incumbent Legislator (Kaohsiung City elected)

i. Lo Shih-hsiung - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator

j. Su Ying-kuei - former Kaohsiung City Legislator


9. (SBU) This is first time the KMT has had so many registered
candidates in a Kaohsiung City mayoral race. A Kaohsiung KMT party
official told AIT/K this shows the KMT has a very good chance to win
in the upcoming election and that the DPP is perceived already to be
on the defensive. Nevertheless, the KMT official admitted the main
task to winning this election is achieving successful post-primary
support by contenders for the selected KMT candidate. One KMT
candidate's assistant told AIT/K that despite the plethora of
candidates, they have all promised not to attack each other during
the primary. To date, the local media has been devoid of any
infighting among the KMT. Interestingly, KMT party officials are
worried that all the "harmony" that is keeping candidates out of the
press will affect their name recognition in Kaohsiung households
and their popularity in comparative polls, thus skewing the primary
and resulting in an inappropriate candidate.


10. (SBU) Local political observers in Kaohsiung and Tainan have
repeatedly urged AIT/K not to be fooled by claims of dominant
pan-green support in Kaohsiung City. They pointed out that although
former Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh's administration scored an 80
percent approval rating in 2002, when the last mayoral election was
held, Hsieh won his reelection by only 20,000 votes. Although
Kaohsiung City is sometimes labeled in the media as a Pan-green
stronghold in southern Taiwan, the slim margin of Hsieh's win in
2002, they argue, indicates that the Pan-green Camp's strength in
Kaohsiung City is weaker than described.

What the Polls Say
--------------


11. (U) In a current United Daily News poll, the KMT Huang
Chun-ying (KMT) has the highest support among all the interested
candidates (DPP, KMT, and TSU),leading DPP's Chen Chu and Yeh
Chu-lan by 14 percent. For pan-green supporters, Chen Chu (DPP)
leads among the DPP's candidates with Yeh Chu-lan following as a

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close second. Among pan-blue supporters, Huang Chun-ying leads by
18 percent, Huang Chao-shun is second with 13 percent support and
Chiu Yi comes in third with 12 percent. The remaining potential KMT
candidates registered levels of support ranging from 9 percent to
below 5 percent.


12. (SBU) According to a China Times poll dated April 14, former
deputy mayor Huang Chun-ying was identified by pan-blue supporters
as the most ideal mayoral candidate, followed by Legislator Huang
Chao-shun (8 percent),former legislator Chen Shei-Saint (8 percent)
and Chiu Yi (7 percent). Former CLA chairperson Chen Chu was judged
by pan-green supporters as the DPP's most ideal mayoral candidate,
followed by former acting mayor Chen Chi-mai (12 percent),
Legislator Guan Bi-ling (11 percent) and TSU Legislator Lo Chi-ming
(4 percent). The same polling also indicated that Chen Chu leads
all candidates regardless of party in terms of popularity. She
received 11 percent support of all those polled, followed by Huang
Chun-ying, (9 percent) and Chen Chi-mai (6 percent). This poll did
not include Yeh Chu-lan. The poll was conducted on April 12 with
829 respondents. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Former Mayoral Assistant Weighs In on the Turmoil
-------------- --------------


13. (SBU) AIT/K recently discussed the upcoming December Kaohsiung
mayoral elections with Zhan Yuan-xiang, a 2005 AIT/K International
Visitor grantee. Zhan previously served as an investigative
reporter for Next Magazine before working as special assistant to
former Kaohsiung acting mayor Chen Chi-mai. Zhan currently works as
the media liaison for Kaohsiung County Council and serves as a
consultant for Attorney Lien Li-chien, who is seeking the DPP
nomination for Kaohsiung City Council.


14. (SBU) Zhan predicted to AIT/K that the DPP would lose the
Kaohsiung mayoral election if it ran former CLA Chairperson Chen Chu
as its candidate. According to Zhan, local labor unions and social
groups do not support Chen Chu even though she once served as a
director of the city's social affairs bureau and labor affairs
bureau several years ago. Zhan noted that no union or social group
leaders will support her election bid because of their displeasure
with the government policy on the importation of foreign laborers
that was put into place during her tenure as the Council of Labor
Affairs chairperson.


15. (SBU) Zhan also indicated that Chen Chu, who is a New Tide
Faction member, is not supported by other DPP factions. Zhan
pointed out that since the DPP is built on a coalition of factions,
factional interest trumps overall party interests. According to
Zhan, DPP factions in Kaohsiung are controlled by former premier
Frank Hsieh and former deputy presidential office secretary-general
Chen Che-nan. Zhan noted that since both were forced to resign from
their positions because of the KRTC scandal, they might ask their
faction members and supporters to stay home on election day if Chen
Chu becomes the DPP candidate. Chen Chu has been blamed for
triggering the entire KRTC scandal by hinting during a TV interview
that Chen Che-nan was the key figure in brokering the importation of
Thai laborers. The KRTC scandal is viewed as the opening of a
Pandora's box, which unveiled a series of DPP corruption scandals
that led to the DPP's poor showing in the December "3-in-1"
elections.


16. (SBU) Zhan noted that given Chen Chu's prestigious status in the
DPP, Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan will never consider running in the
primary. Like others, Zhan sees that the only possibility for Yeh
to take the DPP mayoral candidacy is through recruitment, which will
require a great deal of negotiation among factions and the
abandonment of party's primary process. Zhan predicted that Chen
Chu will win the DPP primary, if there is one. Local DPP members
and supporters, as well as party officials, have expressed concern
that Chen Chu's role in the KRTC scandal will make her an easy
target for KMT attacks. KMT officials were not reluctant to state
that they will attack DPP corruption relentlessly in this mayoral
campaign. When learning that President Chen Shui-bian may pick Chen
Chu as the DPP Kaohsiung mayoral candidate in an attempt to balance
power among DPP factions, Zhan told AIT/K that many local elected
officials said President Chen is making a big mistake.


17. (SBU) Zhan predicted that former vice mayor Huang Chun-ying will
be nominated as the KMT mayoral candidate because of his popularity,
academic prestige and four year administrative experience as vice
mayor. Zhan said that Huang is well-respected and a perfect
candidate for the KMT to restore itself to the mayoral seat in
Kaohsiung.

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Comment
--------------


18. (SBU) The ongoing factional splits and low morale of DPP
supporters has led to a crisis, which poses a major obstacle to the
DPP's ability to defend what it has touted as its biggest stronghold
in southern Taiwan. The DPP administration, plagued by
Kaohsiung-specific corruption scandals, is nervous about its
prospects in the Kaohsiung mayoral race. The DPP fears that the
election will become another media free-for-all that will cost it
not only the mayoral seat, but also bolster predictions that it will
lose to the KMT in the 2008 presidential election if it loses the
Kaohsiung mayoral election.


THIELE

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