Kaohsiung Mayoral Election - Preliminary Report

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001461 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL TW SUBJECT: Kaohsiung Mayoral Election - Preliminary Report REF: A) 2005 TAIPEI 4353 B) 2005 TAIPEI 3856 C) 2005 TAIPEI 3793 D) 2005 TAIPEI 4799 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the run-up to the DPP and KMT primaries, DPP elected officials and supporters are urging DPP's Central Office to recruit Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan as its candidate in the upcoming December Kaohsiung mayoral election. Although former Council of Labor Affairs chairperson Chen Chu is likely to win an actual DPP primary, Yeh is deemed by pragmatists as a better candidate because she belongs to no DPP faction and remains untainted by the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation (KRTC) scandal (reftels A, B, C). The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has announced its intention to nominate its own Secretary General and Kaohsiung City Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral election. Despite Lo's many public calls for the DPP to work with the TSU to jointly nominate a pan-green candidate to avoid splitting green votes, the DPP's factional splits and low morale among local supporters prevent that type of cooperation at this time. Riding high on KMT Chairman Ma's reputation for party discipline and cleanliness, the ten KMT hopefuls for the mayoral nomination have pledged to respect the party's primary results and give full support to the party's candidate, who is likely to be former KMT Kaohsiung vice mayor Huang Chun-ying. Huang's popularity, academic prestige and administrative experience as vice mayor, puts him out front as the KMT's best candidate to recapture to Kaohsiung City's mayoral seat. End Summary. DPP Tensions, Postponed Primaries and TSU Pleas -------------- -- ¶2. (SBU) The DPP and the KMT have scheduled their primaries for Kaohsiung City Mayor to May 28 and May 27 respectively. Both primaries will determine mayoral candidates by judging the results of party member voting (weighted at 30 percent) and public polls (weighted at 70 percent). Results will be announced at the end of May or the beginning of June. In order to ease tension among factions, the DPP postponed the required primary registration date from April 24 to May 1 to await former Premier Hsieh Chang-ting's April 29 return from the U.S. Local DPP officials told AIT/K that Hsieh plays an important role in the DPP mayoral nomination due to his local influence as former Kaohsiung Mayor. Hsieh's associates pointed out to AIT/K that central DPP authorities hope Hsieh's inevitable influence in candidate selection will place the potential loss of the yearend election squarely on Hsieh's shoulders. ¶3. (SBU) Although TSU has nominated its own Secretary General and Kaohsiung elected Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral election, Lo repeatedly has called on the DPP to work together with TSU to jointly nominate a pan-green candidate in order to avoid SIPDIS splitting green votes. The DPP has never responded to Lo's pleas, although local DPP officials have made it clear to AIT/K that a split in votes between TSU and DPP could easily cost them the election in the current climate of low morale among DPP supporters. ¶4. (SBU) Many other pan-green opinion leaders in Kaohsiung, including DPP Kaohsiung Chapter Chairman Chao Wen-nan and DPP Legislator Guan Bi-ling, have been urging the DPP Central Office to cancel the primary and recruit Yeh Chu-lan to run in the mayoral race, maintaining that Yeh is the only DPP candidate who can win the Kaohsiung mayoral election. On April 25, nine Bureau Directors of Kaohsiung City Government joined together to attempt to convince Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run for mayor. DPP Legislator Guan Bi-ling has pledged to withdraw her election bid if Yeh agrees to run. Legislator Lo Chi-ming also urged DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun to consider recruiting Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen to run for Kaohsiung Mayor since neither Yeh nor Tsai is associated with DPP factions or the KRTC scandal (reftels A, B, C). Who's Who in Possible DPP Candidates -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Incumbent Legislator Guan Bi-ling has been competing vigorously against the former Chairperson of Taiwan's Council of Labor Affairs Chen Chu for the DPP's candidacy. As former Premier Hsieh Chang-ting's protg, a Guan Bi-ling candidacy is interpreted locally as a predictor that Hsieh is strong enough to make a run for the 2008 presidential election. A Chen Chu candidacy, on the other hand, is seen as a predictor of the strength of current Premier Su Tseng-chang to capture the DPP's 2008 presidential candidacy. The SIPDIS fierce competition between the two has caused local DPP officials to worry that the primary itself will deeply split DPP supporters' TAIPEI 00001461 002 OF 004 former solidarity. ¶6. (SBU) In order to avoid a potential split caused by the primary, some local DPP officials and members have suggested the DPP Central Office recruit the Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run because she has no affiliation with any DPP faction and her performance as Kaohsiung Acting Mayor has been widely-praised. Yeh has declined the suggestion after a discussion with President Chen Shui-bian. ¶7. (SBU) Former acting Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chi-mai reportedly has cancelled his election plan after his father, Chen Che-nan, was detained for fraud charges two weeks ago. According to a former mayoral assistant, Chen Chi-mai is helping his father with the legal cases piling up against him and has no plans to run for any elected offices in the foreseeable future. General Kaohsiung sentiment is that the Chen Che-nan corruption scandal has ruined his son's formerly bright political career by destroying public trust in the entire Chen family. Who's Who on the KMT Side -------------- ¶8. (U) Encouraged by the KMT's strong Southern performance in the December "3 in 1 elections" (ref D) and by Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan's continued insistence she will not run, ten candidates have registered for the KMT primary. They are: a. Chen Shei-saint - former Taipei City Legislator b. Chiu Yi - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator c. Huang Chao-shun - incumbent Legislator-at-large d. Huang Chun-ying - former Kaohsiung City Vice Mayor and KMT's 2002 mayoral candidate e. Lai Feng-wei - former Penghu County Magistrate f. Huang Chi-chuan - former Kaohsiung City Council Speaker g. Lee Chuan-chiao -incumbent Tainan County Legislator h. Lee Fu-hsing - incumbent Legislator (Kaohsiung City elected) i. Lo Shih-hsiung - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator j. Su Ying-kuei - former Kaohsiung City Legislator ¶9. (SBU) This is first time the KMT has had so many registered candidates in a Kaohsiung City mayoral race. A Kaohsiung KMT party official told AIT/K this shows the KMT has a very good chance to win in the upcoming election and that the DPP is perceived already to be on the defensive. Nevertheless, the KMT official admitted the main task to winning this election is achieving successful post-primary support by contenders for the selected KMT candidate. One KMT candidate's assistant told AIT/K that despite the plethora of candidates, they have all promised not to attack each other during the primary. To date, the local media has been devoid of any infighting among the KMT. Interestingly, KMT party officials are worried that all the "harmony" that is keeping candidates out of the press will affect their name recognition in Kaohsiung households and their popularity in comparative polls, thus skewing the primary and resulting in an inappropriate candidate. ¶10. (SBU) Local political observers in Kaohsiung and Tainan have repeatedly urged AIT/K not to be fooled by claims of dominant pan-green support in Kaohsiung City. They pointed out that although former Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh's administration scored an 80 percent approval rating in 2002, when the last mayoral election was held, Hsieh won his reelection by only 20,000 votes. Although Kaohsiung City is sometimes labeled in the media as a Pan-green stronghold in southern Taiwan, the slim margin of Hsieh's win in 2002, they argue, indicates that the Pan-green Camp's strength in Kaohsiung City is weaker than described. What the Polls Say -------------- ¶11. (U) In a current United Daily News poll, the KMT Huang Chun-ying (KMT) has the highest support among all the interested candidates (DPP, KMT, and TSU),leading DPP's Chen Chu and Yeh Chu-lan by 14 percent. For pan-green supporters, Chen Chu (DPP) leads among the DPP's candidates with Yeh Chu-lan following as a TAIPEI 00001461 003 OF 004 close second. Among pan-blue supporters, Huang Chun-ying leads by 18 percent, Huang Chao-shun is second with 13 percent support and Chiu Yi comes in third with 12 percent. The remaining potential KMT candidates registered levels of support ranging from 9 percent to below 5 percent. ¶12. (SBU) According to a China Times poll dated April 14, former deputy mayor Huang Chun-ying was identified by pan-blue supporters as the most ideal mayoral candidate, followed by Legislator Huang Chao-shun (8 percent),former legislator Chen Shei-Saint (8 percent) and Chiu Yi (7 percent). Former CLA chairperson Chen Chu was judged by pan-green supporters as the DPP's most ideal mayoral candidate, followed by former acting mayor Chen Chi-mai (12 percent), Legislator Guan Bi-ling (11 percent) and TSU Legislator Lo Chi-ming (4 percent). The same polling also indicated that Chen Chu leads all candidates regardless of party in terms of popularity. She received 11 percent support of all those polled, followed by Huang Chun-ying, (9 percent) and Chen Chi-mai (6 percent). This poll did not include Yeh Chu-lan. The poll was conducted on April 12 with 829 respondents. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Former Mayoral Assistant Weighs In on the Turmoil -------------- -------------- ¶13. (SBU) AIT/K recently discussed the upcoming December Kaohsiung mayoral elections with Zhan Yuan-xiang, a 2005 AIT/K International Visitor grantee. Zhan previously served as an investigative reporter for Next Magazine before working as special assistant to former Kaohsiung acting mayor Chen Chi-mai. Zhan currently works as the media liaison for Kaohsiung County Council and serves as a consultant for Attorney Lien Li-chien, who is seeking the DPP nomination for Kaohsiung City Council. ¶14. (SBU) Zhan predicted to AIT/K that the DPP would lose the Kaohsiung mayoral election if it ran former CLA Chairperson Chen Chu as its candidate. According to Zhan, local labor unions and social groups do not support Chen Chu even though she once served as a director of the city's social affairs bureau and labor affairs bureau several years ago. Zhan noted that no union or social group leaders will support her election bid because of their displeasure with the government policy on the importation of foreign laborers that was put into place during her tenure as the Council of Labor Affairs chairperson. ¶15. (SBU) Zhan also indicated that Chen Chu, who is a New Tide Faction member, is not supported by other DPP factions. Zhan pointed out that since the DPP is built on a coalition of factions, factional interest trumps overall party interests. According to Zhan, DPP factions in Kaohsiung are controlled by former premier Frank Hsieh and former deputy presidential office secretary-general Chen Che-nan. Zhan noted that since both were forced to resign from their positions because of the KRTC scandal, they might ask their faction members and supporters to stay home on election day if Chen Chu becomes the DPP candidate. Chen Chu has been blamed for triggering the entire KRTC scandal by hinting during a TV interview that Chen Che-nan was the key figure in brokering the importation of Thai laborers. The KRTC scandal is viewed as the opening of a Pandora's box, which unveiled a series of DPP corruption scandals that led to the DPP's poor showing in the December "3-in-1" elections. ¶16. (SBU) Zhan noted that given Chen Chu's prestigious status in the DPP, Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan will never consider running in the primary. Like others, Zhan sees that the only possibility for Yeh to take the DPP mayoral candidacy is through recruitment, which will require a great deal of negotiation among factions and the abandonment of party's primary process. Zhan predicted that Chen Chu will win the DPP primary, if there is one. Local DPP members and supporters, as well as party officials, have expressed concern that Chen Chu's role in the KRTC scandal will make her an easy target for KMT attacks. KMT officials were not reluctant to state that they will attack DPP corruption relentlessly in this mayoral campaign. When learning that President Chen Shui-bian may pick Chen Chu as the DPP Kaohsiung mayoral candidate in an attempt to balance power among DPP factions, Zhan told AIT/K that many local elected officials said President Chen is making a big mistake. ¶17. (SBU) Zhan predicted that former vice mayor Huang Chun-ying will be nominated as the KMT mayoral candidate because of his popularity, academic prestige and four year administrative experience as vice mayor. Zhan said that Huang is well-respected and a perfect candidate for the KMT to restore itself to the mayoral seat in Kaohsiung. TAIPEI 00001461 004 OF 004 Comment -------------- ¶18. (SBU) The ongoing factional splits and low morale of DPP supporters has led to a crisis, which poses a major obstacle to the DPP's ability to defend what it has touted as its biggest stronghold in southern Taiwan. The DPP administration, plagued by Kaohsiung-specific corruption scandals, is nervous about its prospects in the Kaohsiung mayoral race. The DPP fears that the election will become another media free-for-all that will cost it not only the mayoral seat, but also bolster predictions that it will lose to the KMT in the 2008 presidential election if it loses the Kaohsiung mayoral election. THIELE YOUNG