GROWING DISARRAY AND ANXIETY IN THE GREEN CAMP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001261

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: GROWING DISARRAY AND ANXIETY IN THE GREEN CAMP


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: A number of DPP legislators, dismayed by low
public support for the party and President Chen Shui-bian,
are growing increasingly concerned about election prospects
over the next two years, leading them to call for reforms and
a greater role for legislators in DPP policymaking. Some
would like to see the party distance itself from President
Chen and rally around popular moderate politicians, such as
Premier Su Tseng-chang. They believe that candidates in
future one-on-one legislative elections will have to pursue
moderate policies to win the key middle voters. Despite
failing to increase his popularity so far, President Chen
seems bent on continuing to pursue a political mobilization
strategy, including promoting a constitutional reengineering
movement, in hopes of consolidating the DPP base. Over the
next two years, Chen will face increasing challenges from
legislators and potential presidential candidates such as
Premier Su, who, unlike Chen, must compete in the electoral
market place. End Summary.


2. (C) There is a growing sense of disarray and anxiety in
the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),especially
among DPP legislators. They are concerned that the current
low level of public support for President Chen and the party
will reduce DPP prospects in a series of difficult elections
over the next two years. Pessimism within the DPP has been
fueled by a series of election defeats and political
scandals, by President Chen's failure to coordinate or even
communicate with legislators and others over policy
decisions, the collapse of the planned DPP China policy
debate, the protest resignation of one DPP Legislative Yuan
(LY) member from the party, calls from other DPP LY members
for party reform, and insurance fraud scandals involving two
DPP legislators who are medical doctors.


3. (C) A recent poll conducted by the DPP for internal use
showed Chen's public approval rating at just 18 percent and
his dissatisfaction rating at 76 percent, an all-time high.
The same poll showed public support for the DPP also at a low
18 percent, contrasted to 36 percent support for the
Kuomintang (KMT). Other recent polls, mostly conducted by
the media, show public satisfaction with Chen's performance
ranging from 19 to 24 percent and dissatisfaction ranging
from 53 to 68 percent. A March 30 poll by the pro-Blue
United Daily News showed satisfaction with Chen and with the
DPP both at 21 percent. DPP Legislator Shen Fa-hui suggested
to AIT that Chen's continued low ratings indicate that
despite the tough approach he has adopted since January 1, he
has not been able to consolidate support from the DPP base
but only from Deep Green independence fundamentalists.
Another DPP legislator, Julian Kuo, told AIT that the public
identifies the DPP with Chen, which explains why support for
the DPP is so low.


4. (C) Shen Fa-hui told AIT that DPP supporters once felt
honored to belong to a party they saw as devoted to justice.
That is no longer the case, however. Now, people do not want
to admit affiliation with, or support for, the DPP. The
basic DPP problem has been poor governance, Kuo explained, a
problem exacerbated by the poison of high-level corruption
scandals. DPP setbacks in a series of elections over the
past sixteen months have further demoralized the party.
Following major reverses in the December 2005 local
elections, the DPP recently lost by-elections for Chiayi City
legislator and Taitung County magistrate. Shen said he fears
that a domino series of further election reverses, leading to
the loss of the presidency in 2008, could cause a "collapse"
in the party.


5. (C) Elections for mayors and city councils in Taipei and
Kaohsiung will be held in December of this year. The DPP
already expects to lose the mayoral race in Taipei, where the
population structure favors the pan-Blue, but Shen expressed
concern that the party may also stand to lose half of its
current seats in the Taipei City Council, given political
trends. While the DPP hopes to retain power in Kaohsiung
City, that is by no means a given because the Kaohsiung
electorate is equally divided between Green and Blue

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supporters, and even the popular former DPP mayor Frank Hsieh
won reelection by just 20,000 votes. Julian Kuo told AIT
that he doubts that the current leading DPP candidate, Chen
Chu, can win in Kaohsiung because of objections from local
DPP power brokers.


6. (C) Taiwan's next round of legislative elections will be
held at the end of 2007. DPP legislators, especially those
from Blue-majority northern Taiwan, are increasingly
concerned that the low level of public support for the
president and the party is dimming their prospects in
elections that have already been made more difficult because
the number of legislators will be cut in half (from 225 to
113) and each district will have a single representative.
Only a fraction of the DPP legislators in the northern half
of Taiwan will be able to keep their jobs. Kuo told AIT he
expects the party's representation in Taipei City to be
reduced from eight to just two seats. Overall, he predicted,
the DPP could win as few as 40 seats in the 113-seat
legislature in the 2007 elections.


7. (C) Premier Su's relatively high approval rating is the
one bright spot for the DPP at this point, especially
important as Su is viewed as having the best shot among
potential candidates to win the 2008 DPP presidential
nomination. According to public opinion polling over the
past month, satisfaction with Su's performance ranges from 35
to 50 percent, consistently exceeding his dissatisfaction
level, and one recent media poll showed public trust in Su at
60 percent, compared to just 28 percent for Chen. Su has
maintained his political distance from Chen, apparently to
avoid becoming tainted by the president's poor ratings. He
recently rejected one of the president's political
appointments, the first time this has happened in six years.
Su, moreover, has stayed away from controversial issues such
as cross-Strait and foreign relations and defense, which fall
under the president's purview, and he has not allowed himself
to get caught up in the president's ideological causes. In
addition, Su has earned a reputation for hard work, a
willingness to tackle difficult issues, and a focus on
anti-corruption, contributing to the public perception that
he is serious about improving the government's performance.


8. (C) DPP leaders and legislators have proposed a variety
of initiatives to rebuild public support for the party. One
refrain echoed by all is to strengthen anti-corruption
efforts. Another non-controversial idea is that the DPP
government must work to show accomplishments on social and
economic issues. Premier Su has pledged to step down if he
cannot improve public safety within six months, and DPP
Information Director Tsai Huang-liang told AIT that the party
hopes the completion and opening of major transportation
projects such as the High-speed Railway and the tunnel
portion of the Taipei-Ilan Expressway will raise support for
the government and improve election prospects.


9. (C) President Chen has a quite different plan for
increasing DPP support: promoting a constitutional reform
movement in order to mobilize the DPP base. DPP Policy
Committee Deputy Director Lo Cheng-fang told AIT that the DPP
headquarters is organizing the constitutional reform effort
along two tracks. One track is to promote a social movement
in support of constitutional reform, which will contribute to
political mobilization. Lo said he expects that independence
fundamentalists will want to discuss sensitive sovereignty
issues, though the DPP realizes these will go nowhere. The
other track will be to develop a practical package of
non-sensitive constitutional amendments for submission to the
LY this September. Shen Fa-hui said he does not expect the
constitutional reform initiative to go anywhere because the
general public is not interested in the issue. If Shen's
observation is accurate, Chen's constitutional initiative may
not have the desired effect of increasing public support for
the DPP.


10. (C) Some DPP legislators, who blame President Chen for
ignoring their interests and making important policy
decisions without consulting them, hope to increase the voice
of legislators in the DPP policymaking. One group of "young
Turks" has announced plans to call a meeting of DPP

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legislators to discuss reforms. Another legislator, Julian
Kuo, hopes that the DPP legislative caucus as a whole, not
just a group of "young Turks," will assert its role in making
policy. Acting as a whole, the LY caucus could effectively
pressure President Chen to listen to its views, he explained.
Kuo noted that future LY elections will be one-on-one
contests, in which candidates will have to adopt moderate
policies to win the middle voters. He expressed hope that
the party can be separated from President Chen and, instead,
linked to moderate leaders such as Premier Su and former
Premier Frank Hsieh, which will improve the DPP's standing
and its chances in future elections.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) President Chen's continued strong hand limits the
near-term prospects for meaningful improvement in the DPP's
political standing. So far, DPP legislators do not appear
well enough organized or willing to launch a revolt that
might force Chen to adopt a more moderate approach. The
party organization under Chairman Yu Shyi-kun will stick to
its policy of catering to Chen. Premier Su will continue to
work to consolidate his power while ducking Chen's political
hardballs, in hopes of positioning himself for an uphill 2008
presidential campaign. While always difficult to predict,
Chen will do whatever he thinks will help him most to hold on
to power. At this stage, he appears to believe that he must
continue appeasing the Deep Green base because he cannot
survive without their support. Wrangling and dissatisfaction
within the DPP is likely to intensify as the 2007-2008 LY and
presidential elections grow closer, with pressure increasing
on President Chen to accept his "lame duck" status.
YOUNG