FIJI UPDATE 12/11: SCRAMBLE RE INTERIM GOVERNMENT;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000553 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2016 TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR ASEC CASC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 12/11: SCRAMBLE RE INTERIM GOVERNMENT; RFMF INTIMIDATION CONTINUES; COMMONWEALTH, UN, PIF MEDIATION ATTEMPT? REF: SUVA 552 (AND PREVIOUS) Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Suva remained quiet over the weekend. The RFMF is working on plans for its interim government, without revealing details. A senior military officer threatened PM Qarase he will be arrested if he returns to Suva. Meanwhile, the Fiji Government and the economy are suffering. RFMF intimidation continues, including by threats of violence. New Zealand policemen TDY in Suva were hassled during the weekend, perhaps because the RFMF thought they were special forces. We understand the Commonwealth, UN, and Pacific Islands Forum may attempt a mediation effort in Fiji. Former PM Rabuka was acquitted of inciting the November 2000 mutiny within the RFMF. End summary. Returning the Presidency to Iloilo? -------------- ¶2. (C) An RFMF senior source informed our DATT today that Bainimarama is preparing to give back the Presidency to Ratu Josefa Iloilo, with the intention to then have Iloilo quickly appoint an interim government. In light of that the source indicated the military advisory council previously mentioned as an interim-interim measure might never be formalized. Another RFMF source reported today that RFMF PM Senilagakali doesn't expect to continue in his job for much longer. Since Bainimarama took Presidential powers last Tuesday, Iloilo has been isolated in Government House, with the RFMF appearing to be tightly screening visitors. A delegation of chiefs from Iloilo's Ba Province reportedly was refused access a few days ago. ¶3. (C) Comment: One presumes Bainimarama's thinking is that withdrawing his self-appointment to the Presidency would leave Iloilo in place, and having Iloilo bless an interim government would somehow make the coup more legally justifiable. From our understanding of the law, Iloilo, even if not under RFMF duress, would have no power under Fiji's Constitution to remove Qarase. End comment. Organizing an interim government? GCC role? -------------- ¶4. (U) In a media briefing in late afternoon, Bainimarama announced that the military advisory council met today for the first time. Bainimarama said he will address government CEOs tomorrow. He said 300 people have applied to be cabinet ministers, and while the Great Council of Chiefs refusal to meet is hindering plans, "that can be overcome." Earlier in the day, the media reported a GCC Chairman's statement that the GCC will meet in Suva on Dec. 19-20. Presumably coming days will bring clarification. Fiji Labor Party leader Chaudhry today called for return of executive authority to Iloilo and for him then to call "fresh" elections. Another name for the interim government? -------------- ¶5. (C) A good source reports that, when the Police executed a search warrant of President Iloilo's office a week and a half ago, one of the documents obtained was the list of those Bainimarama was intending to have Iloilo appoint to the interim government. Both Ratu Epeli Ganilau (see reftel) and Ratu Epeli Nailatikau were among the names. Both are former Commanders of the RFMF. Both are high chiefs, married to daughters of Fiji's father figure, Ratu Mara. Ganilau reportedly has severe financial difficulties and has been living lately at the Army camp. He ran on a moderate platform in the 2006 elections and lost badly. Nailatikau was Speaker of Parliament from 2001 until the May elections and has been named Fiji's next High Commissioner to London. We had heard that Nailatikau's wife, Adi Koila Mara, had been encouraging her brother LtCol. Tevita Mara to back Bainimarama. We had not previously heard that Nailatikau was tied in. Our DATT observed that Nailatikau had a short meeting with Bainimarama at RFMF HQ this morning. Qarase back to Suva? Timing unclear -------------- ¶6. (C) PM Qarase, still on his home island in Lau, reportedly told members of the media that he intends to travel back to Suva within the next few days, with the aim to work with colleagues to return constitutional government. However, a SUVA 00000553 002 OF 003 source close to Qarase reportedly expects the PM to stay in Lau until early January. RFMF Land Forces Commander Driti told the media today that if Qarase attempts to return to Suva, he will be arrested. Bainimarama announced at his press event that, since Qarase is still trying to get back into power, that is a sign he is willing to resort to violence. Because of that, military check points will stay in place for several more days. Cash crunch -------------- ¶7. (C) We hear that the Fiji Government is getting desperately short of cash, and soon may not be able to pay public-servant salaries. The CEO for the Ministry of Finance issued an order last week restricting all Government CEOs from writing large checks, absent MoF approval. The MoF CEO then disappeared until surrendering to the RFMF today. We hear he wanted nothing to do with coup participants, but he is now undergoing questioning. Undoubtedly, Fiji Government income from VAT, customs, etc., is declining rapidly with the economy contracting. One anecdote: a popular Italian restaurant in Suva has numbered many MPs, Police Commissioner Hughes, and PM CEO Kotobalavu among its customers. When we innocently inquired "how's business?," a waitress replied: "Terrible; all our customers have been arrested." RFMF intimidation efforts continue -------------- ¶8. (C) The RFMF has called in numerous people to warn them against stirring opposition to the coup. Reportedly an NGO ad calling for rule of law and providing Bainimarama's phone and fax numbers generated a massive public response. Organizers received RFMF threats. When former Labor Minister Zinck announced in a local club that Bainimarama is a coward, Bainimarama's brother was sitting nearby. He phoned the RFMF. Troops arrived, hauled Zinck to the camp, forced him to do exercises for a while, and threatened him not to create further problems. Zinck has complained to Fiji's Human Rights Commission. A prominent human-rights activist, Imrana Jalal, received a phone call, quite obviously from the military, threatening her with rape. Writers of "letters to the editor" to daily papers have been hauled in and warned. The "democracy shrine" that a group of youths created in the Suva suburb of Lami was ransacked last night by people in civilian clothes but carrying a firearm. The presumption is it was an RFMF operation. The organizers were re-erecting their shrine today, telling the media they are not seeking to incite. All they ask is "democracy and no guns." We hear most Qarase Ministers are no longer attempting to visit their offices. ¶9. (U) In late afternoon, Bainimarama announced via the media that the RFMF "will not tolerate any inciting comments." He urged people of Fiji not to follow Australian Foreign Minister Downer's advice to protest. Bainimarama noted that Fiji is divided by race, and Fijian nationalism has often been abused, including when violence erupted after the coup of 2000. Bainimarama said the RFMF will continue taking in people who appear to be inciting protest and will "tell them in no uncertain terms the consequences." If needed, the RFMF "will confront people with force." He added, "We know best what is good for us and how to achieve it." Hassling NZ policemen in Suva -------------- ¶10. (C) Over the weekend, New Zealand police personnel in Suva for protective details were repeatedly hassled by the RFMF. Friday evening after several NZ police dined at a local hotel, RFMF troops arrived and asked the receptionist to show them their "New Zealand register." She refused and the troops left. On Saturday, NZ police in a lead car were escorting a convoy of GNZ dependents out of Suva toward Nadi. RFMF troops stopped the carload of NZ police, while allowing the rest of the convoy to proceed. After 45 minutes, RFMF Maj. Qilio (Land Forces Director for Operations and the only officer recently seen wearing a sidearm) arrived and with little discussion allowed the car to proceed. Sunday, NZ police in a car were again stopped in Suva, but only briefly before being allowed to proceed. The NZ High Commission speculates that the RFMF is worried some NZ SAS troops, perhaps with weapons, have infiltrated. Our NZ colleagues tell us that is not the case. Commonwealth, PIF talk mediation; India sanctions SUVA 00000553 003 OF 003 -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) The international community continues to pour condemnation on the RFMF coup. The Commonwealth suspended Fiji on Friday. Pacific Island Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers are likely to meet again soon, probably in Australia, to again consider the situation. We hear the Commonwealth, UN, and PIF may attempt to create a joint mediation team. For the PIF to join, it would have to edit the mandate it provided on Dec. 1 for an eminent persons group. PNG, Samoa, and Cook Islands leaders have decried the coup. India put out a statement calling for democracy and a return to rule of law. We hear India is invoking mil/mil sanctions against the RFMF, as it did after Fiji's previous coups, turning off training opportunities in particular. The India High Commission in Suva has been urging Delhi not to be too vocal, fearing that no matter what India does, many in Fiji will blame ethnic-Indians for the current crisis. Rabuka acquittal -------------- ¶12. (U) In the trial of former RFMF Commander and former PM Rabuka, accused of fomenting a mutiny against Bainimarama in November 2000, Judge Winter ruled today that the prosecution failed to meet the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard. Five assessors (kind of like jurors) had split in their views. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) The RFMF obviously is frustrated by continuing efforts at public protests. We note that FM Downer's plea was for "passive" protest. Intimidation continues, and while that has not been violent, to date, some remarks have certainly threatened harsh violence. The attempts to hassle New Zealand police during the weekend probably also are signs of RFMF nervousness. The Army seemingly remains concerned that special forces from outside will become involved. The next few days should offer a clearer picture than today of what the RFMF intends in the near term to create interim government institutions, and what role the GCC intends to play. The acquittal of Rabuka is not too surprising. Evidence was somewhat fuzzy. The outcome does illustrate that Fiji's court system is independent, at least when a truly neutral judge in presiding. To date, Bainimarama has not publicly expressed an interest in the case. DINGER