FIJI UPDATE 11/30: QARASE SAYS "GENERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000527 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/30: QARASE SAYS "GENERAL AGREEMENT;" BAINIMARAMA REITERATES CLEAN UP TO BEGIN REF: SUVA 525 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The RFMF spokesman described a tragic accident yesterday in which a helo flying off an Australian ship crashed in international waters south of Fiji as evidence that a foreign invasion is in the works. (Three Aussie naval ships are in the area for evacuation contingencies.) PM Qarase addressed the nation and described a "general agreement" on responses to the military's demands. Qarase appears to have bent on many issues, but it also appears he attempted to leave maneuvering room for the future. Qarase expressed appreciation that the international community is rallying around rule of law in Fiji. He said he is seeking a second meeting, with NZ FM Peters moderating again. Commodore Bainimarama responded harshly in early evening, stating that the Qarase Government must capitulate by midday Friday or face a "clean up" that Bainimarama predicted should be a "peaceful transition." It sounds like the action date is Monday, Dec. 4. A country-team/EAC meeting today concluded that the USG is appropriately positioned regarding its public announcement and contingency planning. End summary. Aussie helo crash; RFMF prepares for "invasion" -------------- -- ¶2. (C) The RFMF exercise in Suva from midnight to 3 a.m. on 11/30 apparently went without incident. The RFMF spokesman insisted publicly that the effort was to prepare for an expected foreign invasion. The spokesman pointed to yesterday's tragic accident where an Australian military helicopter crashed against an Australian naval ship in international waters south of Fiji, resulting in one dead and one missing, as evidence that the threat is real. Qarase describes a general agreement -------------- ¶3. (U) PM Qarase briefed the nation on TV and radio at 4:30 p.m. about the results of his meeting with Bainimarama in Wellington. He said the two had a direct engagement on the issues in a cordial atmosphere, with the goal being a "peaceful and legal settlement" of the military's demands. It was the longest meeting they had ever had, at over two hours, and it resulted in a "general agreement." Qarase expressed profound appreciation to the GNZ and to God. He said any concessions he made were all in conformance with the laws of Fiji. On the issues, Qarase gave his views on all demands: -- the events of 2000: the two agreed on a public information campaign to stress that the events of May and November 2000 were against the law. The Great Council of Chiefs is to assist. The Government would welcome RFMF information on names and evidence regarding those who committed crimes. -- the controversial bills: the Government agreed to suspend further action on all three bills, pending a detailed legal evaluation of their constitutionality. New Zealand will assist in that. If the current final drafts are unconstitutional, the Government will withdraw them. If there is no constitutional hindrance, there will be an opportunity to consult and then perhaps continue the legislative process. -- criminal investigations of the military: Qarase stressed that the independence of the police and DPP (public prosecutor) must be shielded. The Government will accept advice from both on whether prosecutions should proceed, and both can factor in whether not proceeding would contribute to the greater good. Asked if he was encouraging "no prosecution" findings, Qarase reiterated that authority lies with the DPP and police, and the Government will accept their advice. -- firing Police Commissioner Hughes: his contract is nearing its end. As usual, there will be an evaluation of performance, and the military will be able to comment before a decision is made whether to offer renewal. Asked why Hughes would be taking leave in Australia at a critical time, Qarase said he supported the decision, as it was in the best interest given the tense and difficult relations Hughes has had with Bainimarama recently. (Note: some media are reporting Hughes has resigned. Qarase gave no such SUVA 00000527 002 OF 003 indication in his speech, and our police sources tell us that is not the case, that Hughes intends to resume his job in a month.) -- disbanding the Police Tactical Response Unit: a review would be conducted. -- the Native Land Trust Board commercial arm: there will be a review of the scope of the commercial arm. New Zealand has offered to provide specialists to assist. -- Government good-governance issues: the Government will hasten a series of bills aimed to improve government performance. -- Military issues re allowances, etc: an independent committee will be created to look into all issues and make recommendations to the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Public Services Commission. International rallying -------------- ¶4. (U) On other issues, Qarase gave assurance that the Fiji Government's only request to the Pacific Forum ministerial meeting to be held in Sydney on Friday is for a declaration of support for dialogue to reach resolution of the current issues through legal and peaceful means. Fiji is making no request for military intervention. Qarase then noted a public statement from UNSYG Annan, and he read most of a public statement by the UNSC President. He said the international community is rallying around Fiji at a pivotal moment. Another meeting? -------------- ¶5. (U) Qarase said he is seeking another meeting with Bainimarama and has asked NZ FM Peters to moderate again. Qarase is deferring a PIF-related visit to the Solomon Islands in order to be available. Qarase has written to Bainimarama to state he would welcome a public statement from the RFMF that it will agree to resolve any remaining issues without use of force. Qarase said he had yet to receive a reply. Qarase concluded that his goals are to solve Fiji's problems honoring peace, rule of law, democracy, dialogue, and consensus. Bainimarama responds: all lies: clean up to begin -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) At about 6:20 p.m., Bainimarama went on national radio with a media conference in which he insisted that the Wellington meeting was a failure and the PM was not forthcoming. Qarase's statement today was "all lies." Bainimarama never said yes to anything. Qarase's proposals would keep the current impasse lingering into next year, but Bainimarama wants to "fix the impasse straight away." He said one can argue about democracy and rule of law "until the cows come home;" but if the Government does not capitulate on all demands by midday tomorrow (Friday),the RFMF will begin its "clean up." He indicated the actual date would be a bit later. We gather it is Monday, Dec. 4. Bainimarama said he expects no opposition and the result will be a "peaceful transition." He promised to provide security to all elements in Fiji. He briefly mentioned an "interim government" and seemed to indicate in answer to a question that there would be no near-term election. Challenges UN and Biketawa process -------------- ¶7. (U) Bainimarama also addressed the reported threat by UNSYG Annan to cut Fiji off from UN peacekeeping, noting that nothing of the sort happened in 1987 or 2000. He said there is "no way" the RFMF would permit losing its PKO commitments just because of political turmoil. He accused Qarase and his team of pressuring the UN, but said the RFMF won't be threatened. Bainimarama also mentioned tomorrow's Biketawa meeting in Sydney, suggesting it is to approve a foreign military intervention. He said if ever foreign troops cause even a single RFMF soldier to die, he will hold Qarase, Attorney General Bale, and PM CEO Kotabalavu responsible. UNDP and coordinating security plans -------------- ¶8. (C) The UNDP rep for the Pacific hosted a meeting with U.S., UK, France, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan reps in early afternoon, primarily to discuss security coordination issues. The group agreed to redouble efforts to make sure SUVA 00000527 003 OF 003 contingency planning is being coordinated all around. Missions' approaches -------------- ¶9. (C) Australia has now offered "voluntary departure" for family members, but not for staff. The status allows return anytime if the person is willing to pay. New Zealand still has family members sited in Nadi, though staff have returned to Suva. The GNZ offered family members a flight to Wellington on the NZ Air Force plane that brought PM Qarase back from his Wellington meeting. There were no takers. NZ has not invoked authorized departure. Per ref, London instructed the UK High Commission to offer voluntary departure for non-essential staff and dependents. There were no takers. The French and Japanese have not gone to a departure status; however, those of Japan's JICA volunteers who are ending their tours are congregating in Nadi. We held a country team/EAC meeting this morning, before the speeches. All agreed that the current U.S. public announcement remains appropriate and that authorized departure is not appropriate, as yet. We will meet again first thing in the morning. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Qarase's depiction of a general agreement indicates that he bent pretty far on most issues without overtly capitulating. He left openings for achieving something akin to his preferred outcomes on everything but the first item re publicizing that 2000 was a crime. Bainimarama's extremely negative statement seemed almost unrelated to Qarase's. The Commodore was incoherent at times but certainly left the strong impression that he intends to act within the next few days, absent the Government's complete capitulation. He expects no active opposition, thus his prediction of a "peaceful transition." If indeed the clean up commences, we know the Government, including the police, do not intend to overtly challenge it, wanting to evade violence. DINGER