FIJI UPDATE 11/27: BAINIMARAMA TENSION WITH THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000518 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV ASEC CASC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/27: BAINIMARAMA TENSION WITH THE KIWIS; SEARCH AT GOVERNMENT HOUSE; CLEAN-UP KIDNAPPINGS? REF: A. SUVA 516 (AND PREVIOUS) ¶B. STATE 190257 ¶C. SUVA 509 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) We are tentatively scheduled to meet with Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama on Wednesday. We intend to join others in a joint demarche on RFMF senior officers Tuesday. Over the weekend, New Zealand FM Peters got nowhere with Bainimarama. The GNZ considered arresting him but reportedly decided against, even though the Commodore threatened the NZ High Commissioner in Suva and others. A number of Australian and New Zealand citizens are heading home for an early summer break. Others are ducking down. Fiji Police executed a search warrant on President Iloilo last week, which infuriated the RFMF. Bainimarama reiterated his demand that Police Commissioner Hughes must go. Reportedly, the RFMF "clean up" campaign includes the "kidnap" of Hughes, Qarase, and others. We comment that, if Bainimarama commences a "clean up" effort, it is not obvious that the Qarase Government has a plan to counter it, though Australia will face pressure to help. Fiji's streets might well be calm initially. Over time, though, ethnic-Fijian factionalism could breed in the RFMF, adding another source of instability. End summary. U.S. demarche with Bainimarama postponed to Wed -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Acting RFMF Commander Capt. (Navy) Teleni postponed a meeting that had been scheduled for 11/27 at which the Ambassador was to convey Ref B talking points pressing against any coup attempt. Teleni told the Suva DATT that the meeting should be with Commodore Bainimarama and suggested Wednesday morning, 11/29. Teleni said Bainimarama would return to Fiji on Tuesday. In the meantime, the UK High Commissioner received instructions to demarche the RFMF at below the Commodore level, jointly with the Aussies, Kiwis, and U.S., if we are willing. The UK points parallel what all four governments have been saying, so we intend to participate in calls on Land Forces Commander Col. Driti and 3FIR Commander LtCol. Mara on Tuesday, unless otherwise advised. A flurry of activity over the weekend -------------- ¶3. (C) A great deal of activity went on behind the scenes 
during the weekend, both in Suva and Wellington. Our Kiwi colleagues report that late Saturday afternoon, Foreign Minister Peters met with Bainimarama and heard basically the same message all other interlocutors have received: the situation in Fiji is dire; Qarase can continue as PM if he capitulates to all RFMF demands; short of that, the RFMF will force reform. After high-level discussions within the NZ Government, Peters met again with Bainimarama Monday p.m. We have yet to receive a read-out on the second meeting. Arrest in New Zealand? Apparently not -------------- ¶4. (C) We heard from multiple good (non-Kiwi) sources in Suva during the weekend that Bainimarama was about to be arrested by the GNZ. Actually, we are told that Fiji police pushed hard for an arrest in New Zealand and even flew two senior Fiji police officers to Wellington with evidence. Reportedly, in a conversation with PM Clark, PM Qarase also pushed for arrest. However, GNZ lawyers had difficulty with a New Zealand arrest based on Fiji issues, especially since, reportedly, the Fiji Public Prosecutor (DPP) has yet to bless charges. Still, Bainimarama must have heard the rumors. He reportedly threatened to have the RFMF act against the New Zealand High Commissioner in Suva if an arrest took place in New Zealand. That threat of harm to a Kiwi appears to violate NZ law; however, we hear, in the end the GNZ has decided not to arrest Bainimarama. The uncertainty of being a Kiwi in Suva -------------- ¶5. (C) A factor in that decision surely was uncertainty about what dangers might follow for Kiwis in Fiji. A number of Australia- and New Zealand-affiliated businesses, on their own, sent family members home last weekend to commence summer holidays, a week earlier than planned. The families of New Zealand High Commission employees have been consolidated at a resort away from Suva. The NZ High Commissioner and DCM now have NZ police protection details and are sleeping away from their residences. The NZ DATT is in Fiji but staying away SUVA 00000518 002 OF 003 from Suva. Australia and New Zealand have bumped up their travel warnings, though both have stopped short of a travel ban. (Note: Embassy Suva's EAC met twice today, 11/27, to consider the state of play. Given no NZ arrest, which might inflame passions against foreigners, our current level of public announcement remains appropriate.) Evidence search: President/Bainimarama conversation -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The Fiji Police obtained a court warrant for a document search at the Government House home of President Iloilo and reportedly served it last Thursday evening. Presumably the intent was to find evidence of the conversation between Bainimarama and Iloilo on 11/20, during which, according to Bainimarama, the President gave a "green light" to go ahead with the "clean up" against Qarase. As reported Ref C, Government sources denied any such signal was given. (Note: we proposed to Vice President Madraiwiwi during the weekend that, if there ever was a time for a Presidential public statement, now is that time: to clarify what was said, presumably to deny issuing any "green light," and to reaffirm "rule of law" themes. Madraiwiwi acknowledged the point. An hour or so later when another diplomat raised the same issue with the VP, the response was reportedly very passive: that Government House is not central to the current crisis and expects to stay on the sidelines. End note.) Bainimarama reiterates: Police Commissioner must go -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Bainimarama told the media from Wellington that the police visit to Government House was a "raid" which all Fijians should resent. (Fiji media have been describing the event as a "raid" ever since, despite efforts by police spokesmen and Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola to portray it as the orderly serving of a court-issued search warrant.) Bainimarama called on Police Commissioner Hughes to "pack his bags and leave Fiji or we will pack them for him." Bainimarama's action plan - kidnapping pressure -------------- -- ¶8. (C) Hughes reportedly has received indications that the Bainimarama action plan includes the following: first, kidnap Hughes and insist that Qarase capitulate on all the RFMF demands; if that does not succeed, also kidnap Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola, with the same demands; and work up to kidnapping the PM himself if necessary. Another version has the kidnappings, but with all the victims, including the PM, put on a patrol boat and shipped "home." For Qarase that would be a distant island in the Lau Group. Hughes reportedly plans to board a well-provisioned Fiji Police boat late today and direct his force's operations from at sea for the immediate future. Reservists march back into camp for "clean up" -------------- - ¶9. (U) The RFMF called in its "territorial" (reserve) forces over the weekend, with the published explanations being to provide additional protection to President Iloilo and his residence and to assist the RFMF in its "clean up" campaign against the Qarase Government. When the territorials were called up a few weeks ago, the RFMF spokesman billed it as merely an "annual" exercise, and reportedly about 1000 reservists participated. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The GNZ has had a tough call over whether to arrest Bainimarama. His threats against one or more NZ diplomats should not be condoned. Being passive with bullies only encourages them. An arrest abroad might be the only way to enforce a criminal charge and remove the Bainimarama thorn. On the other hand, an arrest in NZ might inflame the RFMF leadership to an immediate coup and/or action against Kiwi diplomats. It could also ignite Fijian-nationalist sentiments against outside influence, causing some who have opposed Bainimarama to unite behind his "clean up" effort. ¶11. (C) Presuming that Bainimarama now does return to Fiji tomorrow, 11/28, it is not obvious that the Qarase Government has a short-term plan to counter a "clean up" campaign. From VP Madraiwiwi's private comments last weekend, it sounds as if Government House has decided to duck, a breathtaking abdication of responsibility. Any commencement of legal action here in Fiji requires Public Prosecutor action, yet to be seen. To be credible, it also requires a means to enforce police, prosecutorial, and judicial will, as yet not obvious. If the RFMF does kidnap Commissioner Hughes, an Aussie, SUVA 00000518 003 OF 003 Canberra is likely to come under public pressure to "do something." We do not know if Australia has contingency plans in place for that, or if any such plans might include a request for U.S. assistance. ¶12. (C) If Bainimarama does commence the "clean up" campaign, it is possible, perhaps even likely, that the streets of Suva will stay calm, at least for the short term. Everyone knows who has the firearms. Over time, though, anti-Bainimarama, pro-Qarase factions within the ethnic-Fijian community would aim to eat away at RFMF unity. A fractured military could bring still more destabilization to Fiji. DINGER