FIJI UPDATE 11/17: PRES AND COMMANDER TO MEET;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000502 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/17: PRES AND COMMANDER TO MEET; OPINION POLL FAVORS QARASE REF: SUVA 499 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama is scheduled to meet with President Iloilo next Monday, presumably to discuss the President's suspension order of Oct. 31. At the moment, given entrenched views by both Bainimarama and PM Qarase, insiders are not placing great hope in mediation efforts. A new opinion poll indicates that the public tilts toward the Government in the current standoff. By ethnic group, there is a split: Fijians heavily favor Qarase; Indians favor Bainimarama. On job approval, Police Commissioner Hughes gets highest marks across the board, and Qarase gets very high marks from Fijians, whereas a majority of Fijians disapprove of Bainimarama's performance. With the Army composed nearly entirely of Fijians, that should give Bainimarama pause, but it probably won't. End summary. Bainimarama and President Iloilo to meet -------------- ¶2. (C) Vice President Madraiwiwi has informed us that RFMF Commander Bainimarama is to meet with President Iloilo on Monday, Nov. 20. That would be their first face-to-face interaction since Iloilo's suspension order of Oct. 31, the RFMF's refusal to comply, and Bainimarama's later return to Fiji. We do not know the agenda, though one can surmise Bainimarama will seek confirmation that Iloilo has officially withdrawn the suspension order. Note: We heard Iloilo's office recently sought PM Qarase's advice on withdrawing the suspension, arguing that since the suspension was on advice of the PM in the first place, it should be the PM who advises to withdraw the order. We have the impression the PM did not encourage the withdrawal. Another topic could be the President's blessing for a submission to the Supreme Court seeking a definitive ruling on the breadth of the RFMF's roles under the Constitution. Bainimarama has told us he sees no need for such a judicial process. Low hopes for mediation at the moment -------------- ¶3. (C) VP Madraiwiwi told us he is sitting on the sidelines at this point, pending further developments between the military and the Qarase Government. We have heard indirectly that Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) Chairman Bokini does not hold out much hope for the mediation effort the GCC is organizing. He reportedly figures both Bainimarama and Qarase are dug in, and the only solution is the departure of one or the other, probably within the next month or so. Poll shows public tilt toward Government -------------- ¶4. (U) The most recent results of the Tebbutt Poll (Fiji's only reasonably scientific polling operation, financed in good part by the Fiji Times newspaper) were revealed on Nov. ¶17. Polling took place via personal interviews across Fiji Nov. 14-15 with a sample of 1018 adults. When questioned: "Who do you believe is in the right in the current standoff between the Military and the Government?" the overall results showed 45% favoring the Government; 36% the Military; 6% both; 4% neither; others unsure. By ethnic group, 67% of Fijians favored the Government and only 18% favored the Military; 54% of Indians favored the Military and only 24% favored the Government. By region, the Suva area was pretty evenly split: 42% Government; 38% Military. In the West, the split was 51% Government; 31% Military. Qarase has strong Fijian backing; Bainimarama doesn't -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) The poll also asked how good a job leaders are doing. Overall, PM Qarase had 57% approval and 23% disapproval. He received 81% support from Fijians, with only 5% disapproving; Indians showed 40% disapproval, with 34% approval. Overall, Commander Bainimarama had 51% approval and 31% disapproval. He received only 30% approval from Fijians, with 53% disapproving; Indians showed 71% approval and only 12% disapproval. Overall, Police Commissioner Hughes received 79% approval and 7% disapproval, with all segments overwhelmingly positive. Opposition Leader Beddoes also had strong figures, with overall 56% approval and 12% disapproval. FLP leader Chaudhry had 42% approval and 27% disapproval. As expected, Chaudhry was favored by a majority of Indians, but by only 30% of Fijians. Comment SUVA 00000502 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) The Tebbutt Poll results should give Commodore Bainimarama pause. They reconfirm the election results from last May: that a large majority of Fijians back the Qarase Government. While a majority of Indians back Bainimarama, it is the Fijians who would be wild cards in any coup attempt. The very high approval rating for Police Commissioner Hughes should be another signal to Bainimarama that at least the demand for Hughes to resign is going against the public will. Our impression is, though, that Bainimarama probably cares about polls about as much as he seemingly cares about the importance of international opinion: not much. DINGER