FIJI VICE PRESIDENT DESCRIBES "HOLDING ACTION;" PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000463 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR CASC ASEC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI VICE PRESIDENT DESCRIBES "HOLDING ACTION;" PM THINKING ABOUT OPTIONS REF: A. SUVA 462 ¶B. SUVA 460 (AND PREVIOUS) Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Fiji Vice President Madreiwiwi confirmed that the suspension order for Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama remains in force, though events (reftels) have left things in a "holding pattern" pending Bainimarama's return to Fiji. In the meantime, Bainimarama has told the press that he still intends to ensure PM Qarase "and his cronies" step down. Bainimarama also attacked the U.S., EU, Australia, and New Zealand for supporting Qarase's "corrupt" government. Madreiwiwi believes it critically important for Fiji not to endure another coup. He says the Qarase government will need to "eat humble pie for now." PM Qarase is very disappointed with how Madreiwiwi handled the suspension issue. He reportedly sees no chance the suspension will be implemented. Qarase is seeking advice from Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs and from his Cabinet; but he senses that Bainimarama's primary aim is to seize power. Australia has reportedly warned Bainimarama that it will consider "all options" if a coup occurs. End summary. VP says suspension issue awaits Bainimarama return -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) VP Madreiwiwi confirmed to us on Nov. 1 that President Iloilo did indeed issue orders on Oct. 31 suspending Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama and installing Col. Meli Saubulinayau as Acting Commander. He said the suspension order is "still in place," though yesterday's events (ref A) mean a "holding action" is now under way. "We will wait and see what happens when the Commander returns." The outcome "could go either way." He noted that the suspension was triggered by Bainimarama's efforts to subvert the elected government, and he observed that the RFMF's thwarting of the suspension is additional evidence. Regret, but push was coming to shove -------------- ¶3. (C) Madreiwiwi wondered aloud if moving against Bainimarama while he was out of town was a mistake. It gave RFMF officers an excuse to seek delay. He expressed regret that the offices of the President and VP are now "compromised regarding the military." But, he added, "push was coming to shove anyway." (Note: he was undoubtedly referring to reliable reports per Ref B that the RFMF has been preparing for a coup, perhaps as early as this week.) The President was inevitably going to have to oppose the military's position. Calm heads required; doubts about Bainimarama's -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Madreiwiwi noted that "calm heads" will be needed to find a solution for the current impasse. On the other hand, it is obvious that Bainimarama is "an angry man." Madreiwiwi referred to a front-page article in the 11/1 Fiji Sun in which Bainimarama is quoted as saying "I'll be back to see that Qarase and his cronies step down." (Note: in the article, Bainimarama decried corruption in the Qarase government and said "we (the Army) are the only hope of the silent majority." Bainimarama reportedly alleged that "corrupt and unconstitutional practices have been supported by the European Union, Australia, New Zealand, and the US governments. These countries are saying it is a democratically elected government. Sure, that's fine, but what about the corruptive practices. That means these countries condone such practices....Can Australia, New Zealand, or the US allow people who are involved in the overthrow of a democratically elected government to sit in positions of power?...these countries have not experienced any coups, so they have not experienced that." End note.) Madreiwiwi found Bainimarama's reference to a "silent majority" particularly ironic, suggesting the Commodore has little sense of the present context (in which Qarase won May elections with huge ethnic-Fijian popular support after Bainimarama and the RFMF campaigned loudly for Fijians to vote against Qarase's party). Madreiwiwi added his view that, while Fiji always has suffered from corruption, Qarase's government has been better than most. Need ensure no coup SUVA 00000463 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C) We asked if Madreiwiwi sees any helpful role for the USG at present? He said that the key, at the moment, is to ensure there is no military takeover. That would be "a disaster, catastrophic." Madreiwiwi said he is urging the PM and Government to "eat humble pie for now; they just have to." PM Qarase disappointed; sees Bainimarama as dictator -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) We hear that PM Qarase is very disappointed with the role Madreiwiwi played yesterday. Qarase says the VP "buckled" after an influential former military commander (Manueli) "got to him." Qarase implied that if Madreiwiwi had held his ground in the face of initial RFMF resistance, Bainimarama's suspension could have been formally implemented, "but he didn't." Qarase sees President Iloilo as "gone." There is no expectation he will carry out the suspension of Bainimarama when he returns. Qarase is seeking advice from Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs (GCC),since the controversial bills before Parliament that Bainimarama says are at the heart of his complaints were drafted "at the request of the GCC and the Fijian people." If the GCC is prepared to ditch the bills, Qarase will go along. We are told Qarase believes the bills are really just a pretext though. He believes Bainimarama really wants to be a dictator. "He has a slate of ministers lined up and is ready to go." Reportedly Qarase is to hold an emergency Cabinet meeting today. Aussies considering "all options" if coup -------------- ¶7. (C) Our Australian colleagues in Suva tell us the Aussie Chief of Defense had a phone conversation with Bainimarama on Oct. 31. The message reportedly was: if you undertake illegal action to remove the Fiji government, Australia would be forced to consider all options including direct action." Bainimarama's response reportedly was, per usual: you foreigners just don't understand. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) A psychiatrist would have a field day with Bainimarama, who has no difficulty at all decrying (with justification) the Qarase Government's accepting of coup figures from 2000 back into politics but in the same breath seeing nothing untoward in preparing for his own illegal removal of the freshly reelected Qarase Government and in defying the lawful suspension order from his Commander in Chief. At the moment, it appears the President, VP, and PM will accede to Bainimarama's pressure by not risking an attempt to enforce the suspension order. The press interview makes it appear that Bainimarama continues to intend Qarase's forced resignation. Washington's media guidance reaffirms our useful message on the appropriate civil-military relationship. Bainimarama will not like that, but we do need to keep reinforcing our strong anti-coup message. DINGER