FIJI CIV-MIL SITUATION: COB 10/31 UPDATE

S E C R E T SUVA 000462 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR CASC ASEC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI CIV-MIL SITUATION: COB 10/31 UPDATE REF: SUVA 460 (AND PREVIOUS) Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). RFMF delays Presidential order for Bainimarama suspension -------------- -------------- ¶1. (S) Following up on reftel, on the morning of 10/31, Fiji President Iloilo signed orders requested by PM Qarase to suspend Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama pending an investigation of subversion charges and to install Col. Meli Saubulinayau as Acting Commander. The President reportedly phoned Capt. (Navy) Teleni, Acting RFMF Commander while Bainimarama is traveling in the Middle East, and presumably Col. Meli to personally convey the orders. We understand Meli then spoke with Land Forces Commander Col. Pita Driti and 3FIR Commander LtCol. Tevita Mara, the two officers who actually command the active-duty troops in the RFMF. Both reportedly said they would not support the changes, and they want to await Bainimarama's return to Fiji. Meli told us RFMF leaders were "worked up" and were ready to act against the government. In that light, Meli proposed that he and Teleni visit the President. When they did so in early afternoon, the President reportedly reiterated that his directives stand as given. However, the President apparently agreed not to press for enforcement until Bainimarama has returned to Fiji. RFMF sources say Bainimarama intends to continue with his Nov. 2-5 visit to Iraq and to return to Fiji on Nov. 8. RFMF standing up, standing down, a waiting game -------------- -- ¶2. (U) In late morning, the RFMF's Force Training Group (FTG) issued arms and ammunition to some active-duty troops with orders to "lock and load," and the main camp, Suva's Queen Elizabeth Barracks (QEB) was locked down. We are told the FTG later gathered back the arms and stood down from the alert. Meanwhile, the RFMF has moved up its order for all territorial (reserve) forces to report to camp. Originally they were to report on Thursday; now it is by 4 p.m. today (Tuesday). Fiji radio reports those forces are gathering as requested, with full kit. A shipment of ammunition on the Suva wharf (reftel) remains a bone of contention between the RFMF and Police Commissioner Hughes. Reportedly there is to be a joint media statement Wednesday a.m. Comment -------------- ¶3. (S) It appears that key RFMF officers are remaining aligned with Bainimarama in the face of direct orders from the Commander in Chief to suspend the Commodore and install an interim replacement. That is a bad sign for civil-military relations. Bainimarama was still in the Middle East as of Monday evening, and it takes at least 24 hours to fly back to Fiji if he should wish to rush home. The interim, however long, provides time for machinations from Bainimarama, from within the RFMF, and from the Qarase Government (which thus far has stayed publicly silent). The Government, and presumably the President, hoped and prayed that RFMF senior officers would bow to a direct, lawful order from their Commander in Chief. For now at least, that hasn't happened. Bainimarama, who reportedly already had preparations well under way for a coup, is likely to be even more motivated now. We have provided EAP/ANP and PACOM FPA background, talking points, and contact info for any efforts PACOM, CENTCOM, or the Pentagon perceive as potentially helpful to convince Bainimarama or others in the RFMF leadership to abide by the rule of law. DINGER