FIJI'S CIVILIAN LEADERS MOVE TO RESOLVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SUVA 000444 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR FJ SUBJECT: FIJI'S CIVILIAN LEADERS MOVE TO RESOLVE BAINIMARAMA ISSUE REF: A. SUVA 425 ¶B. SUVA 432 ¶C. USDAO SUVA 160044Z OCT 06 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D) Fiji's NSC tells public "all is calm" -------------- ¶1. (U) Fiji Prime Minister Qarase convened a National Security Council (NSC) meeting on Oct. 18 to discuss Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama's recent threat to force the PM to resign in early November if he doesn't withdraw controversial bills from Parliament (see ref A and previous). A subsequent Government press release reported that PM Qarase later met with President Iloilo and Vice President Madraiwiwi and related to them the views of Acting RFMF Commander Teleni and Acting Police Commissioner Driver, who reportedly told the NSC that all is calm, no need to worry. Beneath the surface: effort to suspend Bainimarama -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) We have heard from a reliable source that much more took place. In Qarase's meeting with the President and VP, there apparently was agreement for the VP to instruct Attorney General Bale to forward a request from the President to the Supreme Court for a judgment on just how broad the RFMF's powers are under Fiji's 1997 Constitution. (See ref A for discussion.) Additionally, the three reportedly agreed that, after next week's Pacific Islands Forum events in Nadi, Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola (the RFMF's line Minister) is to lodge a formal complaint with the Fiji Police against RFMF Commander Bainimarama. Vosanibola reportedly is at the same time to write to President Iloilo requesting that Bainimarama be suspended from his post as Commander, RFMF, for the duration of the investigation. The report we heard is not clear whether Iloilo has committed to then issue the suspension. Replacement in the wings -------------- ¶3. (C) Reportedly, Vosanibola will recommend that Brigadier General Iowane Naivalurua, who is about to return from a deployment to UNAMI in Iraq, take charge of the RFMF during a Bainimarama suspension. Vosanibola returned from a visit to Iraq a few days ago (Ref B). While there, he reportedly discussed this scenario with Naivalurua and received his agreement to take the job, if necessary. Naivalurua has been put forward to be Fiji's next Prison Commissioner, but his heart is with the Army. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) We will seek opportunities to learn more. The above scenario would break with President Iloilo's past reluctance to exercise his "commander in chief" powers to attempt to rein in Bainimarama. The scenario, if implemented, would force the RFMF's senior leaders to choose: follow an order of the President to permit Bainimarama's suspension; or protect Bainimarama by attempting to remove PM Qarase. See Ref C for a DATT discussion of how RFMF factions seem aligned. That analysis suggests a key RFMF force commander would side with the President; but this is Fiji and nothing ever is certain. For the next week, during the Pacific Forum, it appears all is intended to be calm on the surface; though one presumes Bainimarama (currently in London, then to Rome, the Sinai, and Iraq) has sources who will feed him the Government's plan in short order. Whether that might shorten his "three weeks" ultimatum for Qarase's resignation remains to be seen. Bainimarama currently is scheduled to arrive back in Fiji on Nov. 8. DINGER