POLITICAL REFORM IN TONGA - OPTIMISM REIGNS, FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000215 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ECON TN SUBJECT: POLITICAL REFORM IN TONGA - OPTIMISM REIGNS, FOR NOW REF: SUVA 210 Classified By: AMBASSADOR LARRY M. DINGER. SECTIONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Government officials and diplomats we met during a May 13-16 visit to Tonga are optimistic about prospects for political reform over the next few months. The New Zealand High Commissioner said PM Fred Sevele has gotten off to a good start, and has demonstrated a willingness to shake things up, pointing especially to a cabinet reshuffle announced May 16. Reviews for the work done by the National Committee on Political Reform are generally positive. Even Akilisi Pohiva, the People's Representative in Parliament who pulled out of the Committee earlier this year, praised the Committee's work and said political reform is on the right track. Sitiveni Halapua, Deputy Chair of the Committee, is encouraged by the support the Committee has received from the Crown Prince and the Prime Minister, and says public interest is exceptionally high. He warned, however, that Pohiva and others have unrealistic views about the Committee's work. The Committee will not endorse any specific constitutional model nor recommend a referendum on constitutional reform when it issues its report in September. Those issues are up to Parliament to decide. End summary. NZ High Commissioner - A Good Start for Sevele -------------- - ¶2. (C) New Zealand High Commissioner to Tonga Michael McBryde told us Sevele has gotten off to a good start as PM. Sevele has shown excellent leadership qualities, something that could never be said for the previous PM, Prince Lavaka'ata. Unlike Lavaka'ata, Sevele is willing to debate issues, and enjoys public outreach. He is forming his own cabinet team (reftel),and clearly intends to try to improve governance and accountability in Tonga. ¶3. (C) McBryde doesn't agree with critics who charge that Sevele is "in the Crown Prince's pocket." Sevele's new cabinet appears to have been formed with a minimum of Royal interference, a first for Tonga. Moreover, Sevele has shown he is willing to advocate policies the Crown Prince opposes. McBryde said the Crown Prince, who owns the domestic carrier Peau Vava'u Airlines, asked Sevele not to renew the license for Peau Vava'u's competitor, Airlines Tonga, which began operations on a trial basis last December. Sevele refused the Crown Prince's request, arguing that a Peau Vava'u monopoly in Tonga is not in the Kingdom's best interests. ¶4. (C) McBryde acknowledged that Sevele and Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu don't always see eye to eye on economic policy, with the PM far more concerned about social issues than the Finance Minister, and more reluctant to make budget cuts and implement radical economic reforms. Nevertheless, Sevele and 'Utoikamanu have demonstrated that they can compromise on economic policy and work together. So far, said McBryde, Sevele's "softer" approach to economic reform appears to have won out. (Comment: Contacts in the international donor community are far less sanguine about the Prime Minister's approach to economic policy, given Tonga's difficult budget situation. Septel reviews Tonga economic issues in detail. End comment.) Pohiva - "We are Moving in the Right Direction" -------------- - ¶5. (C) Akilisi Pohiva, founder of the Human Rights and Democracy Movement in Tonga and a long-time people's representative in Parliament, was upbeat about prospects for political reform. Although he is no longer a member of Prince Tu'ipelehake's National Committee for Political Reform, Akilisi remains on good terms with members of the Committee. Pohiva agrees with fellow People's Representative Clive Edwards that the Committee has incorrectly expanded its mandate to include social and economic issues. Nevertheless, the Committee is "moving in the right direction." Pohiva met with the Committee twice in mid-May and presented his model for constitutional change. More consultations are expected in the next few weeks. ¶6. (C) Pohiva is not interested in participating in the Committee's consultations with the Tongan public. As People's Representative for nearly two decades, he considers himself in continual contact with people from all walks of life. Pohiva has made it clear to the Committee, however, that he would like to be involved in the drafting of the Committee's final report to the King. One key element of any final report, he said. should be a recommendation for a SUVA 00000215 002 OF 002 referendum on constitutional reform. Halapua - Committee's Work is Only the First Step -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The East-West Center's Sitiveni Halapua, Deputy Chairman of the Committee, said he is pleased about the tremendous interest in the Committee's work and the response it has received in dozens of community meetings throughout the Kingdom. The Committee will conclude its community meetings in Tonga by mid-June, after which members will travel to New Zealand, Australia and the United States (about one week in each location). The Committee's final report in now expected to be completed no earlier than September. The Crown Prince and the Prime Minister are very supportive of the Committee's work, with the PM publicly stating that the government is eagerly awaiting the Committee's report. Halapua said that activists like Pohiva, however, continue to have unrealistic expectations. The Committee will not endorse Pohiva's or any other constitutional model, nor will it recommend a referendum on constitutional reform. Instead, the Committee will report its findings to Parliament, including an analysis of possible constitutional reform steps. It is then up to Parliament to debate issues related to constitutional reform and decide whether it wants to move forward with a referendum or take other action. ¶8. (C) Because Pohiva has extracted himself from the Committee, continued Halapua, it is hard to see how he could be allowed to play a role in the drafting of the final report. Pohiva will have a hard time understanding this, said Halapua, because he firmly believes that as a long-term People's Representative, he has the right to speak for the people of Tonga. What Pohiva doesn't seem to understand is that the Committee strongly believes in letting the people speak for themselves. Social and economic problems can't be excluded from Committee discussion, as Pohiva and Edwards insist, because the people who come to the meetings want to talk about those issues. By the same token, the Committee can't simply accept Pohiva's constitutional plan without further consultation, as Pohiva seems to want. Halapua concluded by noting that Pohiva and other activists run hot and cold on the Committee's work. While Pohiva seems to be happy with his recent opportunity to provide input to the Committee, he will assuredly find reason to complain about the Committee's work later on. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) We find the general current of optimism about political reform encouraging. But, as Sitiveni Halapua states, the Committee's work is only the beginning of the political reform process. Where the Government and the Royal Family will take the process, and how pro-democracy forces will react, remains very unclear. DINGER