FIJI ELECTION TO QARASE'S SDL...PROBABLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000209 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ASEC FJ SUBJECT: FIJI ELECTION TO QARASE'S SDL...PROBABLY REF: SUVA 206 (AND PREVIOUS) Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In Fiji's general election, Prime Minister Qarase's SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP garnered nearly all seats, with the SDL, supported by two independent candidates, likely to form government with a tiny majority. Final, marginal-seat results are still trickling in. The FLP hasn't given up. It is lobbying the two independents. It is also challenging results in a suburban Suva seat where it alleges 15 ballot boxes mysteriously appeared and in another suburban seat where SDL is alleged to have influenced the count. Voting was mostly party/race-based. Apart from the two significant disputes, which remain unresolved at close of day, the process generally appeared to be free and fair, though it was very complex and lengthy. Qarase plans to offer cabinet seats to the FLP, as required by the Constitution, though some worry the offer won't be genuine. Another worry is how Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama will react. Qarase's apparent victory may well restart the clock on civil-military tensions in Fiji. End Summary. SDL, with independents, edges ahead -------------- ¶2. (U) As predicted (refs),Fiji's general election has turned out to be very close, with PM Qarase's SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP gaining nearly all the seats. The only exceptions are two UPP "generals" who are aligned with the FLP, and two independents. As of COB, several open seats are still cycling through repeated preference allocations; however, based on preference expectations, it appears the SDL will be able to form government. Even FLP sources tell us they are likely to be behind, 35-36 or 34-37. A couple of factors remain at play, though, and we hear both Qarase and Chaudhry have sent messages to President Iloilo requesting to form a government. ¶3. (SBU) SDL's margin is based on statements by the two independent victors that they intend to align with SDL. Chaudhry has said he is trying to woo the two, but that appears difficult. One, Rob Irwin, is an ethnic-English businessman who likes Qarase's pro-business stance; the other is George Konrote, a former RFMF senior officer who until recently was Fiji's High Commissioner to Australia. Reportedly Konrote has at least agreed to talk with Chaudhry. Many are speculating Qarase will offer Konrote the Home Affairs Ministry with responsibility for the RFMF. Ballot-box mysteries: a court case? -------------- ¶4. (C) The FLP is likely to initiate a court challenge concerning at least one Suva suburban seat where allegedly 15 ballot boxes mysteriously appeared after the pre-count verification process had commenced. Officials swear the total was always 98, not 83, and that any announcement to the contrary was simply a mistake. They say a complete paper trail backs their case. However, the FLP and three minor parties are very skeptical, in part because the FLP candidate for that seat had the same sort of unpleasant surprise happen to her in 2001. The four have already filed an electoral protest. Elections supervisors ordered a second full recount in another Suva suburban seat late Wednesday after the FLP alleged an SDL candidate who initially lost by 4 votes entered the counting room and convinced officials to allow in additional ballots from outside to give her a 17 vote victory. If the final outcome is 34 or 35 for SDL plus its 2 independents, the two disputed seats would be the margin of victory. Some valid complaints; mostly "free and fair" but... -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) We heard a number of complaints, particularly from the ethnic-Indian parties, of problems with the polls. The most frequent issue was that voters, usually ethnic-Indian and often with registration slips in hand, were missing from the polling lists or were placed in the wrong constituencies. In most seats, with big victory margins, that did not affect the outcome. In a few, where the margin after preferences has been as few as 200 votes, disenfranchisement could have been a factor. Obviously, the outcome of the suburban Suva open seat controversies could decide the election. Another concern is that the number of invalid votes was high again this year, perhaps 10% or more. The main cause is a very complicated preferential ballot. While our impression is SUVA 00000209 002 OF 002 that, in general, officials have attempted to provide a free and fair election, we reserve final judgment until the Suva suburban issues are resolved. People voted party; race is a factor -------------- ¶6. (U) Voting was heavily determined by party affiliation, and the SDL and FLP are racially based. SDL rolled with big majorities through all 23 Fijian-communal seats, as did FLP through all 19 Indian-communal seats. In open seats where one race is dominant, the seats went as race determined. As expected, a group of less than a dozen, racially marginal open seats were key. In a few, FLP scored upsets; in one SDL eked out a 200 vote victory on fifth preference count. Many went well into the preference lists. In those, primarily urban-based seats, race played a major role but not an absolutely decisive one. The total inability of the new multi-racial National Alliance Party and the historically prominent, Indian-based NFP to win anything may signal the end of those movements. A multi-party cabinet? -------------- ¶7. (C) PM Qarase has declared victory and has said he will follow the Constitution by offering seats to the FLP for a multi-party cabinet. Qarase has made clear, however, that he does not like the idea and would prefer Chaudhry and his FLP fellows to be in opposition. Qarase says he wants a multi-ethnic cabinet, just not a multi-party one. Unfortunately, only two of the SDL's ethnic-Indian candidates won open seats, so a meaningfully multi-ethnic team, absent the FLP, seems a pipe dream. Last time around, under court order, Qarase ended up offering a bunch of powerless cabinet positions to FLP, which Chaudhry rejected out of hand, preferring opposition status. Prominent Indo-Fijian academic Brij Lal came to the Ambassador today at request of several prominent Indian businessmen to ask for foreign-diplomatic help to convince Qarase to make a sellable offer to Chaudhry on cabinet seats. The businessmen fear continued confrontational politics otherwise. We noted that Qarase has been quite definitive in his views. Lal carried a second request: that diplomats lobby Qarase and RFMF Commander Bainimarama to reduce civil-military tension. We described how we have been doing that for months and would continue to do so as appropriate. The military wild card -------------- ¶8. (C) The RFMF's response to the election outcome certainly bears watching. Commodore Bainimarama clearly expected the SDL to lose. However, Qarase has said publicly that the RFMF's "truth and justice" campaign against the SDL actually helped stimulate ethnic-Fijian turnout for the SDL. In victory statements, Qarase has reiterated that he intends to continue pursuing ethnic-based legislation, like the reconciliation bill and the fishing-rights bill, which Bainimarama strongly opposes. Also, Qarase has publicly announced he intends to seek a Supreme Court judgment on the military's proper role under Fiji's current Constitution, as a step toward reining in Bainimarama. ¶9. (C) All this puts a spotlight on the Commander. Will he back off from past threats to remove a reelected Qarase government if it attempts to pursue past policies? Or, might he attempt to buttress FLP allegations of election flaws, like the mystery 15-box discrepancy? Bainimarama has canceled plans to visit the Solomon Islands this week. It will be interesting to see if he will continue with plans to visit Hawaii next week to observe Fiji forces in Exercise Tafakula. We understand retired LtCol. Bill Serevakula, a very respected officer now with the UN, who is back in Fiji temporarily, talked with Bainimarama today about "exit strategies" to ease civil-military tensions. We hope he was successful, and we will report any details ASAP. For now, Suva is calm. DINGER