TONGA: GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY CONSULTATIONS MAKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000100

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TN
SUBJECT: TONGA: GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY CONSULTATIONS MAKE
PROGRESS; REQUESTS FOR U.S. AID

REF: A. 05 SUVA 613


B. SUVA 97

Classified By: Ambassador Larry Dinger for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) The National Committee tasked with sounding out
Tongans' views and aspirations on political reform is on the
road, making progress. Members of the Committee are
currently holding village-level consultations in Vava'u.
Critics within the pro-democracy movement say the process is
redundant. They would prefer that proposed constitutional
changes go to a popular referendum ASAP. Committee chairman,
Prince Tu'ipelehake, reports the consultations thus far have
revealed a wide spectrum of views, from wanting significant
systemic change to advocating continued support for the
monarchy. The Committee is beginning media outreach to keep
the nation informed of the consultation process.
Disagreements over the Committee's work and recent
developments in Tonga's political landscape, such as the
naming of a pro-democracy commoner to acting Prime Minister,
have highlighted internal differences within the
pro-democracy camp. An attempt to resolve a fiscal crisis,
in part by offering redundancies to public servants, will
affect politics as well. See paragraph 9 for Tongan
suggestions of how the USG can help the reform process. We
continue to believe it important for the U.S. to be visibly
on board. End Summary.

National Committee under way
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2. (C) According to Prince Tu'ipelehake, Chairman of Tonga's
National Committee on Political Reforms, and Sitiveni
Halapua, a Committee member who also works for Honolulu's
East-West Center, the Committee is making good progress in
its village-level consultations to assess attitudes on
democracy and Tonga's political future. Tu'ipelehake and
Halapua came to Nuku'alofa to meet with the Ambassador on
March 3. They said that the Committee has spent two and a
half weeks on Vava'u in the North. Thus far, it has visited
28 villages there, with 14 more to go. The pace clearly must
accelerate, so Committee members have split into sub-groups
to cover two villages per day. After Vava'u and other
northern districts, Committee members will tackle the south,
including Tonga'tapu, the largest population center and
hotbed for reform. Only four Committee members, including
Halapua, have devoted full-time to the visits thus far.
Pro-democracy parliamentarians Akilisi Pohiva and Clive
Edwards say they may join in when the Committee returns from
the north. After canvassing Tonga itself, the Committee
intends to send delegations to the U.S., New Zealand, and
Australia, where most Tongan citizens now reside.
Remittances from that diaspora constitute most of Tonga's
GNP. Following the consultations, the Committee must draft a
report for the King and Parliament, due by September 1.

A mix of views
--------------

3. (C) Tu'ipelehake and Halapua reported that the talks have
revealed a broad mix of views: from democrats wanting a new
order, to those saying implementation of the present system
just needs fixing, to full-scale loyalists of the monarchy.
Some critics suggest turnouts have been light. Halapua
stressed that village voices have been sincere and quite
often sophisticated. In Vava'u, one of Tonga's most
conservative regions where loyalty to the royals is probably
strongest, a significant segment has expressed concern about
change. One consistent anxiety is about maintaining current
land rights, which are bound up with the King's traditional
roles. Halapua said a "silent group" in Vava'u is skeptical
or even hostile to the wave of democratic activism that led
to the creation of the Committee and is "waiting to see what
happens." Halapua suggested that group could pose a threat
to peaceful political reform.

Committee needs a PD angle
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4. (C) Tu'ipelehake said he perceives a need for the
Committee to begin keeping the wider public informed of its
work. As a result, on March 3, he and Halapua held a lengthy
media conference in Nuku'alofa to report on progress thus
far. Also, the Committee has invited a local journalist to
accompany it during its further consultations. The
Ambassador noted the importance of transparency and
information flow in the Committee's work, particularly to
keep people on Tonga'tapu informed, and he praised the
decision to increase media outreach.

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Skeptics remain
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5. (C) Critics, including from within the Committee's own
ranks, continue to question its methods and overall plan.
Pohiva claims that people's-rep parliamentarians have
routinely surveyed Tonga's villages during the past twenty
years. He sees the Committee's work as duplicative, perhaps
even a covert attempt to placate the masses and delay
democratic reforms. He also complained that Prince
Tu'ipelehake's presence as Committee chair tends to create a
stilted, traditional atmosphere at the village consultations,
which stifles free and open expressions of commoners' views.
Thus far, Pohiva and Edwards have not participated in Vava'u,
though they leave open the possibility for their home island,
Tonga'tapu. In an address at the University of the South
Pacific in Suva on March 1, Pohiva predicted a "private bill"
would be introduced in the May session of Parliament to call
for an immediate popular referendum on a set of
constitutional amendments to which Tonga's main pro-democracy
factions have agreed. Tu'ipelehake told the Ambassador he
has already warned Pohiva that the referendum bill would not
pass.

Economic crisis: being fixed?
--------------

6. (C) Pohiva predicted to his Suva audience that Tonga's
precarious economic situation would soon bring down the
Government (Ref A). If it pays outstanding salary increases
promised to public servants, it will be driven into
bankruptcy. If it refuses, it would face a renewal of the
2005 strike by civil servants that brought
democracy-activists' reform agenda to the fore.
Interestingly, Tonga Finance Minister Siosiua 'Utoikamanu
told the Ambassador that, despite the tight fiscal situation,
Government has found a way out. In part, the solution
involves tapping various pockets of unexpended funds. A
major aspect is a "voluntary redundancy" package for 1000
civil servants, a quarter of the total, which would bring a
one-time cost of T$22 million, but would save nearly that
much each year thereafter. Tonga's public-service union has
already threatened a strike over "redundancy," which it sees
as contravention of last September's settlement.

What role the commoner as Acting PM?
--------------

7. (C) Tu'ipelehake said Crown Prince Tupouto'a's appointment
of commoner and former "People's Representative"
parliamentarian Fred Sevele as acting Prime Minister was a
positive sign. The Crown Prince's views have evolved and he
is prepared to accept changes to the political order in Tonga
(see Ref B for further confirmation). Tu'ipelehake said the
Crown Prince has supported the committee's work from its
inception and has instructed government to "embrace" it. Not
everyone sees the appointment of Sevele, a "People's
Representative" until the King made him Minister of Labor,
Commerce and Industries, in the same light. Pohiva still has
confidence in Sevele, but Clive Edwards, a former Police
Minister and current "People's Representative," said Sevele's
ministerial roles and his closeness to the Crown Prince have
raised doubts in the public's mind about his commitment to
the commoners' cause. Edwards suggested the Crown Prince is,
in fact, using Sevele to slow down the process of
democratization.

Comment
--------------

8. (C) The fact that the National Committee's survey is
proceeding gives some hope to those wishing a middle course
between royal reactionism and pro-democracy action in the
streets. However, it will be important for the Committee to
continually demonstrate its viability in the next few months,
a period which could witness the ailing King's death, or his
refusal to accept the commoner Sevele as PM, or a return of
public-service unions to strike action. The pro-democracy
movement's constitutional amendments and referendum demand
also wait in the wings. For now, though, dissidents like
Pohiva and Edwards appear willing to see what comes, and even
to participate in the Committee's consultations from time to
time. So long as the current King's views remain
unannounced, royal buy-in will be questionable, even with the
Crown Prince's "embrace" of reform. End comment.

U.S. Role
--------------

9. (C) The Ambassador discussed with Tu'ipelehake, Halapua,
Sevele, Pohiva, and Edwards several ways the USG might
potentially contribute to Tonga's National Committee process.

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-- Australia, New Zealand, and to a small extent the UK have
already provided funding for the Committee's day-to-day
program of action. The USG has contributed indirectly since
the East-West Center has seconded Halapua to the Committee
for six months on full pay. Halapua and Tu'ipelehake both
noted that Tonga will need more donor assistance a few months
from now to follow up on any Committee recommendations for a
reform agenda. They expressed hope USG funds might be
available by then.

-- Halapua suggested that the USG cover the costs for the
Committee's new media position, which was not in the original
budget. Given the importance transparency and outreach ought
to play in the Committee's work, the Ambassador asked the
Committee for a budget proposal which Washington could
consider.

-- The Ambassador noted U.S. opinion-polling expertise and a
wealth of American consultants on democratic-transition
issues. Tu'ipelehake and Halapua said the Committee does not
currently have Western-style opinion-polling on its agenda.
They implied that an EU offer to fund a referendum is off the
table altogether. They did express interest in possibly
tapping U.S. democracy experts at a later date, after the
Committee's survey phase concludes and
recommendation-drafting is under way.

-- Note that, per Ref B, Crown Prince Tupouto'a is interested
in obtaining internships for a couple of young Tongan print
journalists with regional U.S. newspapers.

-- Clive Edwards suggested that, as reform unfolds, it would
be useful for an American "democracy-transition" expert to do
a public presentation in Tonga on what people should expect
of their elected representatives in a democracy.


10. (C) We continue to believe the USG should be visibly
supportive of Tonga's political-reform process, and we will
continue to work with both Washington and Tongans to find
effective ways to do so. Funding the National Committee's
media-relations staffer seems an attractive method, if the
costs are reasonable. Sponsoring internships in the U.S. for
a few young journalists also has appeal, if PD programs can
assist.
DINGER