UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS A DEAD HEAT; LEFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000913

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV SW
SUBJECT: UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS A DEAD HEAT; LEFT
AND GREENS WANT A PIECE OF SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ACTION


Classified By: Polcouns Casey Christensen, reason 1.4
(b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (sbu) Recent opinion polls show the Social Democrats
(SDP) and their Green and Left support parties have closed
the gap with the opposition alliance; the parliamentary
elections now look to be a dead heat. The Green and Left
parties have claimed the right to a more influential role
within a potential future SDP dominated government following
the September 17 election. End Summary.

Opposition Drops Back, SDP Surges
--------------

2. (sbu) Several recent polls have shown that the earlier
lead of the opposition alliance over the SDP-led triumvirate
has evaporated in the past few months. The race now appears
to be a dead heat. But even though the opposition has lost
its earlier substantial lead, this election still looks like
the best chance the Moderate-led opposition has had of
winning since they were last in power from 1991-1994.


3. (sbu) The SDP has been tainted by a number of scandals
over recent months, but the arrival of summer of and signs of
a strong economy seem to have made Swedes less concerned with
the improprieties of leading Social Democrats. Fresh
statistics from the Labor Market Board indicate that
unemployment reached a low of 4.2 percent in May, very
welcome news to the Social Democrats, as unemployment is the
main target of attack for the leading opposition party, the
Moderates. According to an FSI poll published on the May 28,
46 percent of the electorate believed an SDP election victory
was likely, versus 37 percent forecasting an opposition
victory. The opposition was leading in the polls by 3
percentage points as recently as March. During the past 18
months, the opposition have consistently led in the polls, by
as much as 8 percent. Public sentiment appears to have
shifted sharply. A Sifo poll published on June 18 put the
SDP-led block in the lead with 48.9 percent, versus 47.5
percent for the opposition alliance parties. It should be
noted that 17.6 percent of those questioned in this poll had
not yet decided or would not reveal how they would vote.
Figures in many other polls have given an even higher
percentage of undecided voters. The outcome of the September
17 elections appears still to be up for grabs.


4. (c) Comment: Developments over the past few months place a
question mark on the previous optimism surrounding the
opposition,s prospects. While another SDP-led government is
looking more likely, the opposition is very much in the race.
If the SDP wins, it appears more likely -- as we discuss
below -- that the current Left and Green support parties
would play a more influential role in a potential future
SDP-led government. Left and Green participation in, rather
than just support for, an SDP-led Government would sharpen
the GoS criticism of American foreign policy and likely make
the government less amenable to working with NATO and taking
significant roles in places such as Afghanistan. End Comment.

Left and Greens push for Future Ministerial Posts
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5. (sbu) Both of the SDP,s support parties, the
environmentalist Green party and the former communist Left
party have on a number of occasions made clear their desire
to gain ministerial posts in the event the SDP wins the
upcoming September general election. The Greens have been
most vocal in their calls for inclusion if there is a new
SDP-led government. For his part, Left Party leader Lars
Ohly has threatened that a Government containing only the SDP
and the Greens, and excluding the Left party, could be
brought down and new elections precipitated by the Left Party
voting with the non-socialist parties. (Note: This assumes,
as is likely, that the SDP would need both the Green and Left
parties support in order to govern.)


6. (c) The Green leadership has clearly identified the SDP as
their preferred partner, but, as a bargaining chit, and in
order to keep their options open, the party congress at the
end of May decided that cooperation with any of the
parliamentary parties should not be ruled out. The Green
leadership has also publicly entertained the notion of
forming a governing alliance after the election that could
include, in addition to the SDP and Greens, a non-socialist
party, such as the Center or Liberal party. Although this
proposal was immediately dismissed by the Liberals, such
statements remind the SDP that the Greens are open to
switching sides and joining a coalition with some of the
opposition parties if the SDP does not offer a good package.
They also put Prime Minister Persson on notice that he will
have to do more than tantalize -- as he has done in the past
-- the Greens with ultimately ephemerous prospects of
participation in the Government if they lend their support to

the SDP.

Rank and File Social Democrats Like the ex-Communists
better than the Greens
-------------- --------------

7. (c) A poll published on May 27 in Dagens Nyheter indicated
that 65 percent of SDP sympathizers would like to see the
Left party in a coalition with the Government, as opposed to
only 46 percent favoring the Greens, if the SDP finds itself
after the elections in a position where it needed support to
form a government. The SDP leadership, however, would prefer
the Green Party over the Left party. Per our Social Democrat
sources, a coalition government with the Greens or the Greens
and the Left party (similar to the current constellation in
Norway) cannot be ruled out. However, the SDP will not
declare its coalition intentions before the election and the
exact make-up of a coalition would depend on how well each
party does. We note, however, that the Green Party has
called for ministerial portfolios previously, and after the
2002 election finally accepted supporting a minority Social
Democratic Government in exchange for significant policy
concessions, the same could happen again.

Possibility of a Left or Green-Tinted Foreign Policy
-------------- --------------

8. (sbu) A potential SDP Government would clearly only
consider bringing the Greens into the government if it needed
them for a parliamentary majority. The Social Democrats have
ruled Sweden for 70 of the past 86 years. With the exception
of World War II, there was only one instance when they were
required to do so as the leading partner of a coalition
government (with the Center party in the 50s). The Greens
and Left parties are currently limited to being support
parties, with cooperation defined according to the terms of a
121 point joint program. The Left and Green parties do not
currently have influence over the areas of Foreign Policy,
Defense, and Energy. We note, however, that the latest
defense budget bill was actually passed by the SDP with
support from the Green and Left parties, as opposed to the
traditional consensual defense bills that included support
from the non-socialist opposition parties.


9. (c) If the Greens and the Left were to join a future
government, they would need to compromise their positions on
a number of issues, one of the most important of these being
their calls for withdrawal from the European Union. They
both want referendums on EU membership and any new EU
constitution. Sources within the SDP believe that foreign
policy would not change substantially and that the junior
partners of the SDP would need to adopt a more pragmatic
line. Both the Greens and especially the left have been
harsh critics of U.S. policy in connection with Iraq and
Iran. Both have been highly skeptical of Sweden's
participation in NATO-led deployments, including in
Afghanistan.


10. (sbu) Informally, SDP officials make clear that although
they may not particularly like working with the Green Party,
it is preferable to the Left Party. The Left's communist
past, its competition with the SDP for the labor vote, and
its disregard for market sentiment make it hard to work with.
However, if there is an SDP-led coalition with the Greens,
it may be hard to keep the Left party out.
WOOD