SWEDEN: DEMARCHE ON DEFEATING VENEZUELA IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000189

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR IO/UNP BHARRIS AND WHA/PPC RYONEOKA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UN UNSC GT VE SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN: DEMARCHE ON DEFEATING VENEZUELA IN THE
2006 ELECTION FOR A SEAT ON THE UNSC

REF: STATE 20173

Classified By: Charge Stephen V. Noble, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (c) Polcouns delivered 2/8 reftel demarche in support of
Guatemala's candidacy for the Latin American non-permanent
seat on the UNSC to MFA Americas Director Hakan Malmquist.
On 2/10, the Charge delivered the demarche by telcon to MFA
Political Director Olof Skoog. Without saying how the GoS
may come out on the issue, Skoog did volunteer that the GoS
thought Venezuela demonstrated a "clear sense of
irresponsibility" in their recent actions at the IAEA in
Vienna. Skoog added further that the GOS was "disappointed
but not surprised" by the Venezuelan performance in Vienna.
Skoog looked forward to continuing our dialog on this issue.
Malmquist said both the Venezuelan and the Guatemalan
embassies had already approached the MFA regarding the
election. Sweden had not yet decided which candidacy to
support. The recommendation from the MFA on which country to
back would be based in part on the performance of the
aspirants in the ensuing months. Malmquist said Sweden was
following closely developments in Venezuela, as well as
Bolivia and other countries where "populists" had been
elected, and would evaluate how -- and if -- their actions
moderated in relation to their rhetoric. This would
influence Sweden's decision on the Latin American candidacy.


2. (c) Malmquist said the EU-Latin America summit would take
place May 9-10 in Vienna, and he expected there would be
extensive lobbying by both Venezuela and Guatemala. At the
same time, the Austrian hosts had already expressed concern
about the possibility of disruptive behavior by Chavez,
including speculation about the possible offering of
alternative gatherings at the summit.


3. (c) Malmquist said Sweden had a long history with
Guatemala, has a large Embassy there and a large assistance
program, and had been directly involved in the UN-brokered
peace negotiations. At the same time, it also had a history
with Venezuela. Sweden closed its Embassy there "ten years
ago," and was sensitive to Venezuela's trans-border problems
with Colombia, where MFA Political Director Skoog was
recently Ambassador with regional responsibilities.


4. (c) Another factor that could come into play, Malmquist
said, was Sweden's parliamentary elections that will take
place September 17. A new government could take a different
view on which country to support.


5. (c) Olof Skoog, MFA Political Director on 2/10 told the
Charge that that in Sweden's view Venezuala had acted with a
clear sense of irresponsibility in the recent action at the
IAEA in Vienna -- vis-a-vis the Iranian nuclear situation.
Skoog said the GoS was disappointed but not surprised by
Venezuela's approach. Skoog could not say where the GoS
would come out on the issue, but he shared our growing
concern and skepticism about Venezuelan actions.


6. (c) Comment: It was clear from the remarks about what
Chavez may do at the May summit that the Europeans are aware
of his potential as a spoiler in international fora.
Presumably, his behavior at this event will be one of the
benchmarks the Swedes will use in evaluating Venezuela as a
candidate for the UNSC. Malmquist also appeared to be
signaling that the current Social Democrat government would
be more likely to support Venezuela -- especially if it is on
good behavior between now and that election -- than would a
government led by the center/right current opposition, who
are now leading in the polls.
NOBLE