SWEDEN'S ELECTIONS: CENTER/RIGHT ALLIANCE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 001501 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SW SUBJECT: SWEDEN'S ELECTIONS: CENTER/RIGHT ALLIANCE FOR SWEDEN WINS REF: A. STOCKHOLM 1489 ¶B. STOCKHOLM 1421 ¶C. STOCKHOLM 952 ¶D. STOCKHOLM 913 Classified By: Polcouns Casey Christensen, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (c) Sweden voted Social Democrat Prime Minister Goran Persson out of office September 17, giving the mandate to Moderate Fredrik Reinfeldt and the center/right Alliance for Sweden. Reinfeldt is the big winner, with his Moderate party earning a larger vote total than his three Alliance allies -- Liberal, Center, and Christian Democrat parties -- combined. Persson has submitted his resignation from the government, and said he will stand down as party leader in March. Reinfeldt's campaign focused on job issues and the economy, and we expect the first attentions of his government, which will be announced October 3, will be in the same direction. We expect the new government will seek positive Euro-Atlantic relations, while making no abrupt changes with the foreign policy of its predecessor. End Summary. A Clean Sweep -------------- ¶2. (c) Sweden has ousted the Social Democrat Prime Minister Persson and turned the government over to a coalition of center-right parties led by Prime Minister designate Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Moderate Party leader. In September 17 parliamentary elections, voters gave the Alliance for Sweden (consisting of the Moderate, Center, Liberal, and Christian Democrat parties) a total of 48.1 percent of the votes, versus 46.2 percent for the Social Democrats and their Green and Left supporters. This will translate into 178 seats for the Alliance majority vs. 171 seats for the SDP, Left, and Greens in the Riksdag, Sweden's parliament. Reinfeldt and his new cabinet of ministers will be formally announced October 3. Jockeying is now underway among the Alliance parties for distribution of ministries. The big winner in the government sweepstakes is expected to be the Moderate party, which garnered on its own 26.1 percent of the votes, compared with a total of 22 percent for its three alliance partners taken together (Center 7.9, Liberal 7.5, Christian Democrat 6.6). Other then Reinfeldt's designation as the prospective Prime Minister, all ministries are under negotiation; the outcome may not be clear before the beginning of October. ¶3. (c) Prime Minister Persson suffered an historic loss, with the Social Democrats scoring their lowest percentage of votes (35.2 percent) since 1914. Persson conceded defeat in the election and said he would step down as party leader at a special party congress to be called in March 2007 and turn the reins over to the next generation. The succession battle has already begun, with calls for additional resignations from party leadership positions. ¶4. (c) Although Sweden's economy appears to be doing well, with growth above European averages and unemployment officially at 4.6 percent, Reinfeldt found a message on jobs that resonated with frustrated job seekers and concerned Swedes. He demonstrated that real unemployment figures are much higher if standard methods for accounting for sick leave and job-training regimes are applied. Reinfeldt called for reduced unemployment benefits, decreased payroll taxes for low-income workers, and tax breaks to businesses that hire the long-term unemployed, while assuring voters he would preserve the essentials of Sweden's popular welfare state. This gave the Moderates -- and the Alliance -- a boost among disillusioned job-seekers and others concerned about the sustainability of Sweden's welfare system. Another key factor in the Alliance victory was dissatisfaction with PM Persson, who was often characterized as complacent, arrogant, and tired. ¶5. (u) Other than the Moderates, which made an unprecedented jump from 15.2 percent in the 2002 parliamentary elections to 26.1 this time, and the Alliance parties riding their shirttails, there were no big winners. The same seven parties will remain in the Riksdag, but with considerable shifts in the numbers. The Liberal members of the Alliance for Sweden suffered a major setback, falling from 13.3 to 7.5 percent. Some of this can be attributed to a late-breaking scandal regarding Liberal party staffers hacking the Social Democrats internal web site. Most of the Liberal votes appear to have gone, as we noted earlier (ref B),to the Moderates, and so were not much of a net loss for the Alliance. The Christian Democrats declined from 9.1 to 6.6 percent. The Center party had a modest increase, from 6.1 to 7.9 percent. STOCKHOLM 00001501 002 OF 002 ¶6. (u) On the other side of the aisle, the Social Democrats were down from 39.8 to 35.2 percent, while the Left continued its intermittent decline, falling from 8.3 to 5.8 percent, compared with the 2002 election. The Greens did especially well among young voters, rising modestly from 4.6 to 5.2 percent of total votes. ¶7. (u) None of the small parties made it over the four percent threshold to enter parliament. The nationalistic, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats earned, according to exit polls, about 2.0 percent of the vote, which would be a major gain for them. In a few localities, they appear to have received figures as high as 20 percent. (Note: official figures for the small parties will not be available until the 20th.) The Feminist Initiative appears to have garnered about one percent. Foreign Policy -------------- ¶8. (c) We expect that the fundamentals of bilateral relations following an Alliance victory will likely remain much the same in the short term. We may hear a difference in tone, with less vocal criticism of U.S. foreign policy. Within the Alliance for Sweden, the Liberals (openly) and Moderate (circumspectly) support Sweden joining NATO, but call for a national consensus on the issue. The Christian Democrats are agnostic on the issue and the Center Party is skeptical, but says it is amenable if the SDP also joined consensus. Eventually, if the political constellations line up (and this will take into account Afghanistan, where Sweden leads a PRT, and Iraq),there could be more open advocacy for NATO membership. In Sweden's government, decisions on major issues are collective and taken by consensus of all ministers, including those whose portfolio does not relate to the issue at hand. The Center party, which is now the second-largest in the Alliance for Sweden, has traditionally taken a foreign policy line very similar to that of the Social Democrats, whom it has supported in prior governments. The section on foreign policy in the Alliance's joint program differs only in emphasis (more action on Darfur, and on democratizing Eastern Europe, for example),but not in essence from that of the Social Democrats. Seismic shifts in Sweden's foreign policy are not likely in the short run. What Manner of Man -------------- 9, (c) Reinfeldt is, like his predecessor Persson, a pragmatist and a centrist. By co-opting labor issues from the Social Democrats, he has pulled what amounts to a Tony Blair, but in reverse. In contrast to the traditional Moderate party position, Reinfeldt and the "New Moderates" have promised not to dismantle the welfare state. The Social Democrats grumbled throughout the campaign that Reinfeldt was simply claiming he would be a better social democrat than they were. When we asked a group of prominent business leaders about Reinfeldt's approach, the shared opinion was that most of Sweden's parties -- including the "New Moderates" -- are really social democratic. Reinfeldt has stated publicly that Bill Clinton is his favorite American politician and underscored this point to the Ambassador privately (ref C),adding that he had no problem with nearly all of the policies of Clinton, but disagreed with some of the foreign policy of the current administration. ¶10. (c) Reinfeldt is married and the father of three children. He lives in a modestly upscale suburb of Stockholm. He holds a degree in economics from Stockholm University, and speaks excellent English. An updated bio will follow. WOOD