IRAQ SECURITY TRANSITION ISSUES FOR 19 APRIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 061597 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2031 TAGS: MOPS PREL IZ JA AS SUBJECT: IRAQ SECURITY TRANSITION ISSUES FOR 19 APRIL LONDON MINI-QUAD MEETING REF: BAGHDAD 1056 Classified By: NEA DAS ROBERT GODEC FOR REASONS 1.5 (A),(B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) The Joint Committee to Transfer Security Responsibility (JCTSR) to Iraq is proceeding with its provincial assessment process as described in REFTEL. Post may draw on points in para. 2 to update quadrilateral partners during the 19 April "mini-quad." The committee will not be making any recommendations to transition any province this month. As a result, there does not appear to be a need for another such meeting in London next week as originally planned. ¶2. (C/REL UK AUS JPN) BEGIN POINTS -- It is our understanding that there will be no recommendations to transfer security responsibility in any Iraqi province this month. -- The initiation of the assessment process has identified some elements that need to be improved. The assessments will be updated in May, when there will be a new opportunity to make recommendations on security responsibility. -- We do not expect any further clarification on the timing of a conditions-based transfer of security responsibility in al-Muthanna province in time for for Japan's April 24 deadline for deciding whether to proceed with the next Ground Self-Defense Force rotation to Samawah. We understand the GOJ's decision is likely to follow the lines of the second option the Japanese delegation briefed last week in London -- i.e., deployment of the 10th rotation during May. That unit would then not contemplate redeployment out of Iraq until July at the earliest. -- We look forward to hearing about the deployment decision by Japanese authorities. In light of these developments, and the planned May 1 meeting between Secretary Rice and FM Aso, we do not believe that a Ministerial-level telephone conversation is required at this point. -- We also do not believe another mini-quadrilateral is required next week. We look forward to continuing close coordination in May as the next iteration of the assessment process is undertaken. END POINTS RICE