MACEDONIA VOTES: OPPOSITION WINS IN GENERALLY CALM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000640 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA VOTES: OPPOSITION WINS IN GENERALLY CALM AND PEACEFUL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS REF: SKOPJE 631 AND PREVIOUS SKOPJE 00000640 001.2 OF 003 SUMMARY. ¶1. (SBU) The opposition VMRO-DPMNE party emerged as the clear winner in Macedonia's July 5 parliamentary elections, with the ethnic Albanian DUI party (governing coalition) consolidating its lead over rival eAlbanian opposition party DPA. The elections were considered to have "largely met international standards, with isolated serious irregularities." The current Prime Minister conceded defeat late the night of July 5 and called for a swift transition to a new government to take the reins from his SDSM-led coalition. A new government could be formed by late August or early September, and is likely to consist of some combination of VMRO-DPMNE, DUI, and SDSM-breakaway NSDP. The generally positive assessment of the conduct of the elections should clear one major hurdle to the country's progress toward NATO membership. End Summary. STRONG VICTORY FOR ETHNIC MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION PARTY ¶2. (U) In parliamentary elections July 5, Macedonians voted by a sizable margin for the opposition VMRO-DPMNE party, expressing clear dissatisfaction with the current SDSM-led government due mainly to weak economic performance and high unemployment. With 99.4 percent of polling stations reporting, the State Electoral Commission's unofficial results give the VMRO-DPMNE-led "For A Better Macedonia" coalition 32.5 percent of the vote; the SDSM-led coalition "For Macedonia Together" trails with 23.3 percent. SDSM's eAlbanian coalition partner DUI garnered 12.2 percent, while opposition DPA received 7.5 percent. (COMMENT: DUI's win signals a strong vote of eAlbanian confidence in DUI governance since 2002. It also is a positive indicator of eAlbanians' belief in their future as citizens of Macedonia. END COMMENT.) Opposition VMRO-NP (a VMRO splinter group) received 6.1 percent of the vote, while SDSM breakaway NSDP also scored 6.1 percent. Voter turnout was a solid 56.4 percent (this figure would rise by at least another 10 percentage points if the approximately 200,000 registered voters living overseas were deducted from the voter rolls). PARTY VOTES MP SEATS VMRO-DPMNE 303,149 44 SDSM 217,670 32 DUI 114,300 18 DPA 70,133 11 NSDP 56,922 7 VMRO-NP 57,121 6 DOM 17,579 1 PEI 11,437 1 (NOTE: MP seats are calculated using the D'Hondt model of apportionment. Small parties in the table are: Democratic Renewal of Macedonia (DOM),formerly part of Liberal Democrats; Party for a European Future (PEI). END NOTE.) CONDUCT OF ELECTIONS: LARGELY MET INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, WITH ISOLATED IRREGULARITIES ¶3. (SBU) International community (IC -- US, EU, OSCE, NATO) observers agreed the election was conducted in a generally positive and calm atmosphere, with mostly procedural irregularities noted in several areas in the northwest and western Macedonia. Unlike in past elections (2002 parliamentary, 2005 local) the electoral process was not disrupted by confirmed incidents of violence or overt intimidation. Macedonian police provided appropriate and effective security at the polling stations. ODIHR assessed the election process as having "largely met international standards for clean elections, but with isolated irregularities." SKOPJE 00000640 002.2 OF 003 ¶4. (SBU) Although the beginning of the electoral campaign was marred by a number of incidents, some of them violent (reftel),the last week of the campaign was generally calm and peaceful, a trend that continued through Election Day. There were a handful of reports of use of force by party supporters, mainly in predominately eAlbanian areas, but none resulted in physical injury. Confirmed instances of ballot irregularities were rare. Embassy officials and local observers reported some minor procedural problems, such as incidents of family voting and some proxy voting. PRIME MINISTER CONCEDES DEFEAT, CALLS FOR RAPID TRANSITION ¶5. (SBU) PM Buckovski phoned VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski shortly before midnight on July 5 to congratulate him on his electoral win. He also called for a smooth and rapid transition to keep Macedonia's reform process on track. VMRO-DPMNE held a large celebration in Skopje's central square on election night, but there was no overt triumphalist tone in Gruevski's victory speech, which described the elections as a win for Macedonia. DUI leader Ahmeti publicly stated his satisfaction with the outcome, while DPA Vice-President Menduh Thaci was the exception, denying that the elections had been fully free and fair. Thaci claimed that DPA had in fact won the largest percentage of the eAlbanian vote, if electoral results disputed by DPA were deducted from the DUI total. Thaci called for re-runs in several areas where DPA activists believed DUI had engaged in blatant ballot stuffing (although such claims were not confirmed by ODIHR observers). WHAT NEXT? FORMING THE GOVERNMENT ¶6. (U) According to the Macedonian Constitution and parliamentary rulebook, the speaker or acting speaker of the parliament must call a constitutive session of the parliament not later than 20 days after the elections (in this case, by July 25) to verify the mandates of at least two-thirds of the new MPs. The newly-constituted parliament then elects a new speaker. Within 10 days of calling the parliamentary session (by August 4),the President must entrust the mandate to form the next government to the leader of the party or parties that won the most seats in the election. The "mandator" then has 20 days to propose the composition of a new government and its work program (by August 24). The newly-elected speaker has no more than 15 days after receiving the proposed government and work program (by September 8) to call a parliamentary session to elect the new government and approve the work program. In short, a new government is likely to be to be formed by the first week of September, and to be sworn in shortly thereafter. DOING THE MATH: POSSIBLE COALITION COMBINATIONS ¶7. (SBU) Given the current electoral results, the following coalition combinations are possible (at least 61 seats are required in the 120-seat unicameral parliament to form a government),in descending order of probability: a.) VMRO-DPMNE/DUI/NSDP/DOM/PEI = 71 seats Comment: Strong majority. DPA, not DUI, is VMRO-DPMNE's "natural" coalition partner. DUI, however, clearly is the most popular eAlbanian party. In addition, unlike DPA, DUI did not campaign on making additional demands for Framework Agreement-related implementation, so this arrangement could be advantageous for DPMNE in terms of working relations with an eAlbanian party. b.) VMRO-DPMNE/DPA/NSDP/DOM/PEI = 64 seats Comment: Weak majority and unstable coalition. NSDP could easily be tempted, if the SDSM leadership changes, into SKOPJE 00000640 003.2 OF 003 rejoining the Social Democratic Union fold, raising chances of a successful no-confidence vote. c.) VMRO-DPMNE/DPA/VMRO-NP/NSDP/DOM/PEI = 70 seats Comment: Strong majority, but VMRO-NP will work to undercut rival VMRO-DPMNE, resulting in intra-coalition turmoil. Gruevski and VMRO-NP informal leader Georgievski are bitter personal rivals. Additionally, NSDP would still be a wild card, prone to realigning with SDSM if there is a leadership change in that party. d.) SDSM/DUI/VMRO-NP/NSDP = 63 Comment: A possible coalition without VMRO-DPMNE. It would occur only if VMRO-DPMNE could not woo enough coalition partners to form a majority government. A weak coalition, this government would face an embittered VMRO-DPMNE and/and DPA opposition who would strive to thwart any legislation requiring a 2/3 majority (constitutional changes) or qualified (Badinter) majority. COMMENT ¶8. (SBU) With minor exceptions, all of the parties involved in the elections exercised restraint and responsible leadership on election day, allowing for the better-than-expected international assessment of the electoral conduct. As such, the elections will help the country overcome one of its main NATO MAP-related hurdles. Finally, Buckovski's gracious concession speech demonstrated political maturity and should help smooth the path to formation of a new government. Macedonia now faces its next challenge, as the parties jockey for position before the horsetrading that will precede the formation of the next government. MILOVANOVIC