MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN CALMS; AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000625 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN CALMS; AMBASSADOR COUNSELS CONTINUED RESTRAINT REF: A. SKOPJE 613 ¶B. SKOPJE 596 ¶C. SKOPJE 594 Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D) SUMMARY ¶1. (C) An unspoken agreement to cool things down has taken hold in Macedonia after a handful of campaign-related incidents, some of them violent and most of them between competing ethnic Albania parties DUI and DPA, occurred at the beginning of the official parliamentary elections campaign on June 15. The Ambassador and International Community (IC) colleagues visited the site of one of the incidents to denounce the violence and to call on political leaders to restrain their supporters. In meetings with DUI and DPA leaders on June 28, she counseled continued restraint and suggested confidence-building measures to avert future incidents. ¶2. (C) The latest poll shows an increase in undecided voters, and opposition VMRO-DPMNE leading governing SDSM by a solid margin. The current lull is a good sign. The high stakes involved, however, make it likely that neither DUI nor DPA has ruled out a resort to more extreme methods if that is what it takes to win. End Summary. CAMPAIGN LULL HOLDS ¶3. (SBU) Following a spate of parliamentary election campaign-related incidents, including a clash between competing eAlbanian parties that included a brief exchange of fire in an area west of Skopje the weekend of June 24-25 (ref A),an unspoken agreement to lower temperatures appears to have taken hold between eAlbanian parties beginning late the evening of June 24. Although opposition eAlbanian party DPA has complained of some minor harassment from DUI (eAlbanian governing coalition junior partner) supporters at campaign events, general calm has prevailed during the week of June ¶26. RASCE VISITS GARNERS NATIONWIDE MEDIA COVERAGE ¶4. (SBU) On June 27, the Ambassador, EU Special Representative, OSCE Head of Mission, and UK Ambassador (as NATO Contact Embassy Representative) visited the rural village of Rasce, west of Skopje, where the June 24 incident occurred. The Ambassador and her IC colleagues each made statements before the media condemning the campaign-related violence and calling on political leaders to restrain their supporters and ensure there were no further incidents. They �0A;also expressed cautious optimism that the lull since June 24 was a positive indication that the situation would remain calm through the July 5 election day, and reiterated IC support for legitimate police actions to investigate and prevent further incidents. The statements received wide and favorable coverage in the Albanian and Macedonian language electronic and print media. AMBASSADOR COUNSELS CONTINUED RESTRAINT ¶5. (C) In separate follow-up meetings with DUI leader Ali Ahmeti and DPA leader Arben Xhaferi in Tetovo June 28, the Ambassador reiterated her June 20 call on both parties to exercise leadership by instructing their supporters to exercise restraint in responding to possible provocations (ref C). At the same time, she expressed satisfaction at the lack of new incidents since June 24. She also floated with both leaders the idea of establishing regular, direct communication between the secretaries general of both parties (ref A) to better coordinate campaign events to avoid the potential for direct confrontations between supporters. DPA SEES CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IN POLICE/UBK CONNECTIONS WITH DUI ¶6. (C) Xhaferi and DPA VP Menduh Thaci argued that the SKOPJE 00000625 002 OF 003 problem was not a lack of communication with DUI, but rather the alleged role of the police and Macedonian counter-intelligence agency (DBK) in provoking the incidents and directly supporting DUI activists. Thaci added that DUI was also using Ibrahim Kelmendi, allegedly a "Marxist-Leninist" Kosovar Albanian criminal, and K-Albanian criminal fugitive Emrush Suma (with police support) to intimidate DPA supporters. ¶7. (C) Xhaferi said the "mentality of ethnic Albanian political leaders is to test the morality, and the courage, of their political opponents," suggesting that was DUI's tactical goal. Thaci said that the governing SDSM was concerned that if DUI did not win enough seats to enter a ruling coalition, it would resort to violence to destabilize Macedonia. Even opposition VMRO-DPMNE, according to Thaci, believed that if DUI were not included in a future government, Ahmeti's party would try to destabilize the country. ¶8. (C) The Ambassador countered that other analysts believed DPA itself was resorting to violence during the campaign to demonstrate its ability to be a destabilizing force if it did not receive a post-election invitation to join a future government. That was the wrong tactic to pursue, she said. DPA needed to persuade domestic and international observers that it was not pursuing such tactics. DUI SEES MAIN CHALLENGE ON ELECTION DAY ¶9. (C) DUI's Ahmeti said he expected the bulk of problems to surface on Election Day, July 5. He had been spending more time trying to restrain his supporters, he said, than actually campaigning. In most parts of western and northwestern Macedonia the situation was calm, and likely to remain so, but he anticipated DPA provocations in the DPA-controlled municipality of Saraj and in the village of Tearce, also under DPA control. Citizens wanted the state to provide greater security on Election Day to ensure DPA did not employ ballot stuffing tactics, Ahmeti said. Political leaders had to take more responsibility for the actions of their followers or, failing that, resign. ¶10. (C) Countering DPA's accusations regarding Ibrahim Kelmendi (para 6 above),Ahmeti said the Kosovar was simply a news correspondent who was harmless. He also denied that DUI figures were trying to intimidate DPA followers. Instead, he said, suspected war criminal and DPA candidate Daut Rexhepi (aka Commander Leka) was creating fear among the citizens of Tearce, Slatino, and other small villages north of Tetovo. DUI BELIEVES KOSOVAR ALBANIAN ASSISTANCE NOT NEEDED ¶11. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's encouragement not to accept outside help for the campaign or Election Day from Kosovar Albanians, Ahmeti reiterated his long-standing position that he did not need external assistance. Instead, he would ask the GOM for more active police presence at polling stations, especially in Saraj and Tearce. His supporters would provide full cooperation with the police in preventing or investigating incidents. DUI READY TO COOPERATE WITH DPA TO AVERT FURTHER INCIDENTS ¶12. (C) Vowing he would take responsibility for preventing future incidents, Ahmeti said he was ready to enter into dialogue with DPA, but did not know whom to turn to as an interlocutor on that side. He accepted the Ambassador's suggestion that the IC (EUMM, OSCE, US Embassy ICITAP) work with the Tetovo police chief to plan ways to deconflict the major DUI and DPA rallies scheduled for the same day, July 3, in Tetovo. The DUI and DPA secretaries general could then coordinate between themselves and the Tetovo police chief to discuss steps to avert incidents on July 3. (NOTE: That SKOPJE 00000625 003 OF 003 process already is underway, with the Tetovo police chief today having met with IC reps to discuss preventive measures, and the DUI and DPA secretaries general scheduled to meet later today with the police chief to coordinate further. END NOTE.) LATEST POLL SHOWS INCREASE IN UNDECIDED VOTERS, OPPOSITION LEADS ¶13. (U) A June 24 poll by a local NGO shows that the number of undecided voters has risen to over 42 percent, up from 37 percent in the previous poll. Most analysts believe the number has gone up due to the violent incidents that marred the official campaign start. Of the respondents, 17.3% would vote for VMRO-DPMNE; 12.8% for SDSM; 9.6% for DUI; 5.8% for DPA; 5.4% for SDSM breakaway party NSDP; and 2.6% for VMRO-NP. VMRO-DPMNE's Nikola Gruevski remains the most popular politician, with 17.6% support, followed by DUI's Ahmeti (10.3%),and DPA's Xhaferi (7%). More than 26% of respondents said they did not trust any politician, a telling figure. COMMENT ¶14. (C) Whether the lull in campaign incidents signals the quiet before the storm or will last through Election Day and afterward is difficult to tell. DUI, and to a lesser extent DPA, seem to have grasped that violent action has only limited effectiveness if the other side is ready and able to respond, and that it entails significant cost in terms of international community reaction (reftels). That said, the high stakes involved (participation in government here remains an easy way to dole out jobs in an economy with an official unemployment rate of over 37%) will make it tempting for both sides to revert to extreme means if they believe that is necessary to win on July 5. MILOVANOVIC