MACEDONIA: AS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000596

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: AS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN
KICKS OFF, ALBANIAN PARTIES SQUARE OFF

REF: A. SKOPJE 451

B. SKOPJE 420 AND PREVIOUS

SKOPJE 00000596 001.2 OF 002


SUMMARY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The 20-day official campaign season for
Macedonia's July 5 parliamentary elections began June 15,
with a total of 31 parties competing in the country's six
electoral districts. The parliament on June 12 amended the
criminal code to stiffen penalties for violations of the
electoral code, party leaders signed a USG-sponsored Code of
Conduct for the elections June 13, and both the Islamic
Community and the Macedonian Orthodox Church have issued
appeals for free, fair and peaceful elections. The latest
polls show opposition VMRO-DPMNE and governing SDSM running
neck-and-neck; the earlier gap between ethnic Albanian rivals
DUI and DPA is shrinking, with DUI polling 17% and DPA 13%.
Despite the public calls by parties and religious leaders for
peaceful elections, violent campaign-related incidents,
mostly between ethnic Albanian parties but including ethnic
Macedonian parties as well, have marred the first week of the
campaign. If those incidents continue unchecked, they will
put at risk Macedonia's EU and NATO aspirations, a message we
are conveying to all parties. End Summary.

CAMPAIGN KICKOFFS


2. (U) The official 20-day campaign season for Macedonia's
July 5 parliamentary elections kicked off June 15, although
most parties had "unofficially" begun to campaign weeks prior
to that date. Jumping the gun slightly, governing SDSM
launched its campaign June 14 with the slogan "Forward, Not
Backward" during a multi-media extravaganza attended by
15,000 supporters at the Skopje city stadium. On June 15,
opposition VMRO-DPMNE's "Strength for Macedonia" campaign
kicked off in the southern tourist resort of Ohrid, while
eAlbanian DUI (junior governing coalition partner) opened in
Skopje with the slogan "We are courageous, we act. You
decide." DPA, the major eAlbanian opposition party, kept its
slogan simple -- "We Believe."

CANDIDATE LISTS - MULTI-ETHNIC, GENDER-BALANCED


3. (U) A total of 31 political parties and coalitions
submitted candidate lists (each party or coalition can submit
a list of up to 20 candidates in each of 6 electoral
districts),all of which were approved by the State Election
Commission. The lists reflected the increased female
candidate representation called for in the new electoral code
(ref A),and many of the lists comprised inter-ethnic
coalitions. DUI's list, for example, has an ethnic Bosniac
heading their list in one district, with an ethnic Macedonian
in the second slot. SDSM's coalition list includes Turk,
Vlach, Roma, and Serb candidates.

STIFFER PENALTIES FOR ELECTORAL CODE VIOLATIONS


4. (U) On June 12, the Macedonian Parliament amended the
criminal code to stiffen penalties for election law
violations. The amended law does away with financial
penalties for violations, but increases the minimum sentence
for committing electoral fraud to three years imprisonment.
For violations involving the use of violence, sentences of
not less than five years imprisonment will be the norm in the
amended law.

CODE OF CONDUCT AND OTHER MESSAGES ON FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS


5. (SBU) On June 13, more than 30 leaders of all the major
parties (except for DUI leader Ali Ahmeti) attended a public
signing of an election Code of Conduct. DUI officials later
said Ahmeti, who had earlier signed the Code, had
previously-scheduled commitments that prevented him from
attending the public event. However, a DUI insider told us
Ahmeti has become increasingly frustrated and despondent over
his party's inability to sustain the significant poll lead it
enjoyed over DPA earlier this year, and was avoiding public
appearances. Two days later, however, he was the keynote
speaker at DUI's kickoff rally.

RELIGIOUS GROUPS CALL FOR FREE, FAIR AND PEACEFUL ELECTIONS

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6. (SBU) The Islamic Community of Macedonia, at Embassy
prompting, issued a public statement June 7 calling on
Macedonia's Muslims to ensure free, fair and peaceful
elections that would guarantee individual voting rights.
After the IC followed up with a joint (US, EU, NATO, OSCE)
statement welcoming the ICM announcement, the Macedonian
Orthodox Church added a statement of its own along similar
lines, reiterating its commitment to staying out of direct
involvement in the campaign. The Skopje Mufti also has
called on imams in the area not to allow mosques to be used
for political campaigning.

VMRO-DPMNE AND SDSM NECK-AND-NECK IN LATEST POLL


7. (U) The latest opinion poll, conducted by a VMRO-DPMNE
affiliated research institute, shows the opposition party
running neck-and-neck with governing SDSM, with each
garnering 26% support. DUI leads DPA with 17% to 13%, but
its earlier 3:1 lead has evaporated. Nationalist VMRO-NP and
SDSM breakaway NSDP both register 4.5%. In an earlier poll
conducted in June, VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski's personal
popularity rating was at 23%, while PM Buckovski's stood at
11%. DUI President Ahmeti and DPA President Xhaferi were at
9.6% and 6.3%, respectively.

VIOLENT INCIDENTS BETWEEN ETHNIC ALBANIAN PARTIES MAR
CAMPAIGN START


8. (SBU) Despite the signing of the Code of Conduct and calls
by religious leaders for a peaceful campaign and elections,
DUI and DPA accused each other of provoking a series of
violent incidents in the first days of the official campaign.
Most incidents involved destruction of posters or other
party symbols, but others included gunfire and grenade
attacks (most of which did not detonate) on local party
campaign headquarters. The attacks usually have occurred
late at night, when the party premises are unoccupied; there
has been damage to property, but no injuries.


9. (SBU) The Ambassador and EU Special Representative
summoned DUI and DPA leaders to the Embassy June 20 to
chastise them for the incidents and to warn of serious
consequences if the incidents did not cease immediately (ref
B). At the end of a three-hour meeting, both leaders agreed
to issue a public declaration in front of the media calling
on their supporters to refrain from such acts or
provocations, and committing their parties to free and fair
elections. While the number of incidents has dropped
significantly since then, the media and various party
headquarters continue to report some acts of attempted
intimidation and attacks on local party offices, especially
between ethnic Albanian rivals DUI and DPA, but also between
SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE supporters.

COMMENT


10. (SBU) Although the reported incidents of provocation and
intimidation are disturbing, seasoned Macedonian observers
say, and the MOI confirmed to Ambassador, that they are
nothing new and that they are typical of past campaign
behavior by all parties -- ethnic Albanian and ethnic
Macedonian alike -- in previous elections. Nevertheless, the
conduct of these elections will be held to a higher standard
by the international community, given Macedonia's EU
candidate status and more tangible NATO membership
aspirations. Failure to lower the number and intensity of
such incidents, or to end them completely, will put those
aspirations at risk. We are working intensively with our IC
partners to make sure that all parties understand that
message.
MILOVANOVIC