MACEDONIA: WITH US-EU PRODDING, ETHNIC ALBANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SKOPJE 000594 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE, USOP PRISTINA FOR COM GOLDBERG E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: WITH US-EU PRODDING, ETHNIC ALBANIAN PARTY LEADERS CALL FOR AN END TO VIOLENT CAMPAIGN INCIDENTS REF: SKOPJE 420 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The Ambassador and EU Special Representative (EUSR) Fouere convoked the leaders of ethnic Albanian parties DUI and DPA for a meeting June 20 to express grave concerns over recent violent incidents related to the campaign for upcoming parliamentary elections July 5. They noted that the incidents, for which each party has blamed the other, have damaged the images of both parties, and of Macedonia, and called for an immediate end to them. If the incidents continued, they warned, serious consequences would follow for the parties, and for party leaders. After attempts by DPA to deflect blame for the incidents, both leaders agreed to make a joint statement to the media (which they did immediately after the meeting) calling on followers to refrain from further violent acts, and reiterating calls for free and fair elections. The statement received positive coverage in the local media and is a welcome first step in halting the escalation of violence. A more important second step, however, will require both parties to ensure supporters desist from provocative or violent acts. We and our EU, NATO, and OSCE partners will be watching closely for the follow through. END SUMMARY. VIOLENT CAMPAIGN-RELATED INCIDENTS ¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador and EUSR Fouere convened a joint meeting of the leaders of rival ethnic Albanian parties DUI (governing coalition partner) and DPA (main eAlbanian opposition party) at the Embassy on June 20, following a series of violent incidents the previous week, allegedly caused by DUI and DPA supporters, that targeted local party campaign headquarters (septel). The incidents marred the kickoff of the official campaign season in the runup to parliamentary elections July 5, and threatened to escalate beyond the capacity of either party to control them. DUI President Ali Ahmeti and VP Teuta Arifi attended, as did DPA President Arben Xhaferi and VP Menduh Thaci. Ambassador was joined by DCM and P/E Chief (notetaker); EUSR POLAD Von Konig accompanied EUSR Fouere. NATO HQs Skopje Commander BG Durance and POLAD attended as observers. OSCE HOM Pais was out of town, but previously had agreed to support the joint �0A;US-EU demarche. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S CONCERNS ¶3. (C) The Ambassador outlined the international community's (IC) serious concerns about the violent incidents, noting that they reflected poorly on both parties and, undeservedly, on the wider eAlbanian community in Macedonia. The incidents, which included a June 18 shootout between rival gangs affiliated with both parties in the Skopje suburb of Saraj, demonstrated a failure of leadership and a lack of democratic maturity. They had to end now. The heated political rhetoric that helped fuel the incidents also had to cease. SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES IF INCIDENTS CONTINUE ¶4. (C) If the parties did not take concrete steps to end the incidents immediately, the Ambassador continued, there would be serious consequences for the DUI and DPA leadership. The IC would ask the State Electoral Commission to rerun elections in areas where DPA and/or DUI violence and intimidation had prevented a free and fair vote, and would fully support the police in all legitimate actions to protect persons and property. ¶5. (C) The IC Principals also were prepared to visit the sites of campaign-related violent incidents and to publicly denounce the involvement of the parties in such acts or provocations. In addition, we would limit our contacts with individuals and the parties known to have encouraged or committed violent acts, and would update our consular information sheets to warn U.S. citizens about travel to areas where such incidents had occurred. The latter action would hurt Macedonia's image, especially in the predominantly eAlbanian western area, negatively affecting tourism and trade prospects there. ¶6. (C) EUSR Fouere added that he had just returned from Brussels, where EU officials had expressed concerns about the latest developments. The incidents were giving "ammunition" to skeptics who claimed that eAlbanians could not function as constructive players in a democratic state, and to skeptics of future EU and NATO enlargement. ¶7. (C) Noting the urgency of the situation, Fouere called on Ahmeti and Xhaferi to demonstrate real leadership by instructing their supporters to end the violence. If they did not, the EU would support the measures the US Embassy was ready to take, and also would consider adding names to the EU visa ban list. Senior EU officials, including Javier Solana and Enlargement Commissioner Rehn, would "not hesitate to put responsibility where it is due." DUI AND DPA REACTIONS: TAKE RESPONSIBILITY, WITHDRAW FROM ELECTIONS, RESIGN, OR BLAME THE POLICE ¶8. (C) DUI's Ahmeti readily agreed to put past incidents behind the party and to move forward. He wanted both sides to take responsibility for preventing future incidents. The parties had to avoid the use of violence. He hoped for a free campaign without violent incidents. If the parties jointly assumed responsibility for that outcome, the elections would be successful. ¶9. (C) DPA's Xhaferi recounted his view of the history of elections in Macedonia since 1994. He suggested that DPA had won some elections fairly and lost others without major complaint, contrasting that pattern with DUI's recent landslide wins in local elections. After DUI had won the 2002 elections, even with what Xhaferi characterized as an unrealistically high margin of victory, DPA had bowed out without violent resistance and had let Ahmeti constitute the government. DUI, on the other hand, was set on winning every election, regardless of how it achieved that goal. That was wrong; Ahmeti's party had to learn how to lose in a democracy. ¶10. (C) Xhaferi proposed two possible solutions for the current impasse: DPA could withdraw from the elections and "wait for a better time" to compete, or both Xhaferi and Ahmeti could resign to show the public that they were responsible leaders. If these incidents were occurring, he said, it demonstrated that neither leader was in control of his party. He and Thaci insisted that "the police and secret services" were responsible for provoking most of the incidents, and that DUI was only partially responsible. RESTRAIN KOSOVAR ALBANIANS OR GET RID OF THEM ¶11. (C) Responding to Xhaferi, the Ambassador noted that past incidents did not justify using similar violent methods in the present campaign. She called on Xhaferi and Ahmeti to exercise leadership, noting that difficult challenges called for leaders to act constructively and not to withdraw, a point Fouere later endorsed. She also noted that both sides were supported by Kosovar Albanians in Macedonia who were engaged in violence and intimidation. Since both parties appeared to have reached a "balance of power" with regard to such forces, they should either pledge to prevent the Kosovar Albanians from taking further action, or ensure that they left Macedonia immediately. ¶12. (C) The Ambassador called on both leaders to make it clear to supporters that they should refrain from further acts or provocations, and to make a commitment to improving the general pre-election climate. Fouere suggested that Ahmeti and Xhaferi both face the media and publicly call for an end to violent acts while pledging to redouble efforts to ensure free and fair elections. JOINT STATEMENT CALLING FOR END TO VIOLENT INCIDENTS AND FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS ¶13. (C) After some discussion of whether a public statement would have a real impact on ending the violence (given DPA's contention that the violent incidents stem from a conspiracy by police to provoke them),both DUI and DPA agreed to a joint statement calling for an end to violent incidents. The Ambassador and EUSR subsequently gave a joint statement to the local media expressing their grave concern over recent developments, pointing out the potential negative consequences of such incidents, and calling on all parties to work for free, fair and peaceful elections. Immediately after the joint US-EU statement, Ahmeti and Xhaferi included similar points in their own joint statement, which received extensive, positive local media coverage. COMMENT ¶14. (C) The concerted IC effort to bring the DUI and DPA leaders to their senses appears, for now, to have calmed a situation that threatened to escalate after the Saraj shooting. The joint Ahmeti-Xhaferi statement is a welcome first step and signal to the public and to DUI and DPA supporters, and puts both leaders on record as committing themselves to peaceful elections. A more important next step, however, will require DUI and DPA to ensure followers desist from further provocative acts, to either expel or restrain their Kosovar Albanian "muscle," and to monitor the situation on the ground to ensure that any independent, spontaneous incidents caused by supporters are quickly contained. We, and our EU, NATO, and OSCE partners, will be watching carefully to ensure both sides follow through. If one or both fail to do so, we will take the next step and begin putting in place the measures to make operational the "serious consequences" we warned Ahmeti and Xhaferi about. End Comment. MILOVANOVIC