MACEDONIA: POLITICAL LEADERS EXPECT INDEPENDENT

UNCLAS SKOPJE 000497 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: POLITICAL LEADERS EXPECT INDEPENDENT MONTENEGRO WILL BOLSTER REGIONAL STABILITY ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Initial Macedonian reaction to the May 21 Montenegro referendum on independence has been generally positive, with most interlocutors welcoming the development as contributing to bolstering regional stability. It is encouraging that harder-line eAlbanian parties, such as opposition DPA, have not tried to exploit the Montenegro vote by calling for greater autonomy for Macedonia's eAlbanian citizens. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Initial Macedonian reaction to the unofficial results of Montenegro's May 21 referendum on independence has been positive. President Crvenkovski and PM Buckovski both congratulated their Montenegrin counterparts on May 22, with Crvenkovski stating that the referendum outcome would "provide a positive contribution to regional stability." President of Parliament Jordanovski also told Charge May 22 that he expected Montenegrin independence to bolster stability in the region. ¶3. (SBU) Opposition party VMRO-DPMNE's spokesman told us the party does not expect the referendum to have a destabilizing effect, and is pleased the process was carried out in accordance with EU standards. SDSM (governing majority coalition partner) highlighted the fact that the referendum process was conducted in a "calm and democratic" manner, but worried that some parties might reject the results and try to "create independent areas" along the lines of ethnic enclaves in Bosnia-Herzegovina. ¶4. (SBU) Ethnic Albanian governing minority coalition partner DUI welcomed an independent Montenegro "as a positive contribution to stabilization of the region." DUI Parliamentary Whip Rafiz Aliti suggested the development could even strengthen the democratic process in Serbia, "as Belgrade begins to understand that the future of the country is in the NATO and EU." ¶5. (SBU) Ethnic Albanian opposition DPA's Vice President Menduh Thaci told us that the region "is moving towards stability" in the aftermath of the May 21 referendum. He added that the next challenges for the western Balkans would be conducting free and fair elections in Macedonia and then solving the Kosovo status issue, after which leaders could "focus on everyday issues" affecting their citizens. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Not surprisingly, the general Macedonian reaction to the Montenegro referendum outcome has been positive, with most political interlocutors commenting on its expected contribution to consolidating regional stability. It is encouraging that DPA, which in the past has pushed for radically broader autonomy for eAlbanians in Macedonia, has not attempted to exploit the Montenegro vote to argue that case. WOHLERS