MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL VOINOVICH VISIT

UNCLAS SKOPJE 000234 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR SENATOR VOINOVICH AND DELEGATION FROM THE AMBASSADOR DEPT FOR H, EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OVIP OREP AMGT ASEC MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL VOINOVICH VISIT MARCH 24-26 REF: A. STATE 29812 ¶B. SKOPJE 218 ¶1. (SBU) Your visit comes as the government and opposition are gearing up for this summer's parliamentary election, the actual date of which has yet to be determined. Amid the clamor of mutual recrimination and mudslinging of the "pre-campaign," which already is underway, your visit is an excellent opportunity to remind the government and opposition of the importance of free and fair elections to Macedonia's NATO and EU membership prospects. It is also an opportunity to press the government and opposition to stay focused on key reforms, despite the inevitable distractions of the political campaign and regardless of which parties emerge to lead the next government after the elections. MUCH PROGRESS SINCE 2001 CONFLICT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Although the 2001 armed insurgency by the ethnic-Albanian National Liberation Army left wounds and a controversial legacy, the interethnic coalition that came to power in the 2002 parliamentary elections has made important progress since then in implementing the Ohrid Framework Agreement (FWA) that ended the conflict. In the process, the government has built a democratic, multiethnic state and Macedonia is now a secure, stable country. ¶3. (SBU) PM Vlado Buckovski's Social Democratic Union (SDSM) is in an uneasy coalition with ethnic Albanian party DUI, whose president is the former leader of the 2001 insurgency. Despite occasional intra-coalition clashes, the government has passed the constitutional amendments and legislation required by the FWA, which enhanced the language rights and local government decision-making powers of ethnic minorities in Macedonia. ¶4. (SBU) Although language rights and national symbols remain sensitive issues, the coalition continues to make measured progress on FWA-related decentralization reforms. Government entities are stepping up the hiring of ethnic minorities to ensure that all ethnic groups are equitably represented in the public administration. Recent measures of public opinion are also encouraging; a poll last year found that for the first time in seven years, both major ethnic groups had a positive view of each other. And only three percent of Macedonians list ethnic relations as the country's largest problem -- the vast majority consider economic issues to be Macedonia's greatest challenge. FAIR ELECTIONS KEY TO MACEDONIA'S FUTURE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Conducting free and fair elections is the first challenge Macedonia must face as it aims to strengthen its NATO and EU membership bids, as our Ambassador to NATO pointed out during a recent visit to Skopje. The municipal elections early in 2005 were characterized by a series of irregularities, especially in predominantly ethnic Albanian areas. A flawed system for ruling on challenges to electoral results, and lackluster follow-through by prosecutors on credible allegations of misconduct compounded the problem. ¶6. (SBU) In light of last year's events, Macedonian officials will be keen to demonstrate their commitment to fair elections. PM Buckovski will tell you that the government is fully committed to "zero tolerance for electoral fraud" and may note that the State Electoral Commission, which administers the overall election process, is now fully funded and operational. In addition, the Macedonian government has worked with OSCE experts to draft an electoral code that addresses concerns raised by the international community following irregularities noted in previous elections. The electoral code is under consideration by Parliament, which is expected to pass it by the end of March. ¶7. (SBU) The only serious obstacle to the passage of the electoral code is a dispute over the composition of local electoral boards (LEBs). Although the OSCE found the government draft electoral code acceptable, the main opposition party, VMRO-DPMNE, objects to the government's proposal to staff LEBs with civil servants. The party argues that the politicized nature of the civil service guarantees a heightened potential for fraud. The government is working on a compromise solution that would allow party representatives to serve on the boards in addition to civil servants. ¶8. (U) President Branko Crvenkovski kicked off on March 2 an initiative to intensify outreach to the media, civil society, religious communities, and political parties to highlight the need for free and fair elections. I participated in a two-hour session during which the President, the OSCE and EU representatives, and I gave the media our views about their role in the elections. We underscored our hope that they would work to create a positive, constructive atmosphere for political debate as campaigning gets underway, and would highlight the critical importance of a free and fair process for the country's NATO and EU membership prospects. A similar session with NGOs will take place in mid-March. COOPERATIVE ON KOSOVO FINAL STATUS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The GOM acknowledges that the Contact Group will take the lead on Kosovo final status talks, but strives to play a small but constructive role in that process. The government will accept any final status outcome that respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state. Due to its experience with decentralization and defining the rights of ethnic minorities, Macedonia is sometimes described as a possible model of a multiethnic democracy for Kosovars to emulate. ¶10. (SBU) Macedonia also hopes for demarcation of its border with Kosovo before final status talks conclude. Limited talks have been held at the technical level, but the Kosovars are unwilling to accept a 2001 agreement between Belgrade and Skopje delineating the border. We support resolution of the demarcation issue within the framework of final status talks, and we continue to emphasize that Kosovo, whatever its final status, will need an internationally recognized and demarcated border. ¶11. (SBU) Relations between Skopje and Pristina are good, and links between Macedonia and Kosovo are growing. Macedonia opened a trade office in Pristina last year, and the Prime Minister and President frequently host working meetings with PISG leaders on issues of common concern. Trains now run between the two cities, and a free trade agreement signed in July 2005 is a significant example of deepening economic ties. PM Buckovski has expressed interest in hosting a visit of PISG Prime Minister-designate Agim Ceku in the near future. MEASURED PROGRESS TOWARD NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP -------------- - ¶12. (SBU) A reliable U.S. ally, Macedonia's government was disappointed by our announcement that we would not support a summit on NATO enlargement before 2008. Macedonian officials have been encouraged, however, by our message that Macedonia is on the right path, even if difficult tasks remain. PM Buckovski understands that NATO members want stable, secure contributing members in the Alliance. He is likely to emphasize that Macedonia has made good progress on defense reforms and contributes to alliance operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Macedonia has been an important contributor to regional cooperation, both as part of the Adriatic Charter (A-3 -- Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia) and as a contributor to the Southeast European Brigade (SEEBRIG). A recent poll found that 90 percent of Macedonians support joining NATO. ¶13. (SBU) Macedonia was declared an EU candidate country in December in recognition of the significant strides it has taken toward meeting EU membership criteria. The European Council determined, however, that Macedonia must make further progress to strengthen the rule of law, fight corruption, and enact judicial reforms before accession talks can begin. The European Commission will report on Macedonia's progress in the fall, but we do not expect the EU to set a date for the opening of membership talks with Macedonia before late 2007. CONSOLIDATING RULE OF LAW -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Ethnically mixed police patrols have access to all communities in the country, including former "police no-go zones" scattered throughout predominantly ethnic Albanian parts of the country. Largely as a result of recent standoffs in the Skopje suburb of Kondovo, the police often get political buy-in for police operations before undertaking them in ethnic Albanian villages. This pragmatic approach normally minimizes the need to launch potentially violent operations that could spark inter-ethnic violence. POLICE ACCOUNTABILITY, TIP REMAIN ISSUES -------------- ¶15. (SBU) General rule-of-law weaknesses hamper Macedonia,s ability to combat corruption, organized crime, and trafficking in persons (TIP). The Ministry of Interior,s Professional Standards Unit (PSU) has investigated a number of allegations of police abuse, and has sanctioned such abuse when it occurred. However, the PSU,s record is inconsistent, and systems to ensure transparency in the MOI are inadequate. Similarly, Macedonia,s fall from Tier 1 to Tier 2 in the State Department,s annual Trafficking in Persons report for 2005 reflected lack of political commitment to combat aggressively lucrative organized crime activities, as reflected in the GOM,s continuing lack of a national action plan for combating TIP. INDEPENDENT AND EFFICIENT JUDICIARY -------------- ¶16. (SBU) The parliament in December 2005 passed a package of 11 constitutional amendments strengthening the independence and efficiency of the judiciary, which currently is one of the least-trusted of all Macedonian government institutions. The amendments curtail the role of Parliament in selecting judges, who will now be selected and dismissed by an independent State Judicial Council. Parliament is expected to pass bylaws to implement the amendments by June 2006, although the process could be delayed if the parties involved cannot agree on bylaws to bring the reforms into effect. Together with other aspects of the government's judicial reform strategy, these steps reflect Macedonia's commitment to increase the responsiveness and professionalism of its judiciary and sharply reduce the system's backlog of over one million cases. CORRUPTION CONUNDRUM -------------- ¶17. (SBU) As elsewhere in the Balkans, corruption is a pervasive problem here. Macedonia was ranked 104 of 159 countries in the 2005 Transparency International annual corruption perception index (CPI) report. Very few high-profile corruption cases have been successfully prosecuted, with even fewer cases involving a significant sentence as a sanction. According to government data, in 2005 a total of only 37 persons were convicted on corruption-related charges, 24 for abuse of their official positions. According to some government sources, the lack of an effective wiretapping law thwarts more effective prosecution of corruption cases. In reality, there is a lack of political will -- in the government and the judiciary -- to tackle this problem effectively. GOVERNMENT LOOKS TO PROMOTE FOREIGN INVESTMENT -------------- - ¶18. (U) The government,s most significant economic achievement has been maintaining macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline. The economy has grown at a consistent rate of 2 to 4 percent from 2002 to 2005. The government budget deficit is low (-0.6% in 2005),inflation minimal (0.5% in 2005),the currency is stable, and the level of debt-to-GDP (40%) is manageable. Despite some marked progress, however, both domestic and foreign business investment is low, and GDP growth rate is not strong enough to lower unemployment or the poverty rate significantly. Macedonia ranks 57th in the Heritage Foundation,s 2005 Index of Economic Freedom, closely behind A-3 partners Albania (52nd) and Croatia (55th). ¶19. (U) The government has made significant economic reforms in a number of areas, including recent implementation of a "one-stop shop" that has reduced the time required for registering a new business. However, more needs to be done to create an economic climate that will attract increased investment and bring official unemployment figures down from over 30 percent. Essential remaining steps include enforcing property and contract rights, and completing privatization of the state-owned electricity monopoly to bolster investor confidence in the country. MACEDONIAN, SERBIAN CHURCHES AT ODDS -------------- ¶20. (SBU) An ongoing dispute between the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) and the Macedonian Orthodox Church (MOC) over which church may represent Macedonia's Orthodox believers has affected relations between Belgrade and Skopje. The imprisonment last year of Zoran Vraniskovski, a former MOC bishop now recognized by the SOC as Archbishop Jovan of Ohrid, was criticized by the international community and many human rights NGOs. Vraniskovski was released on March 3 after the Supreme Court reduced Vraniskovski's sentence for inciting religious intolerance. Despite this positive step, however, Vraniskovski is likely to return to prison unless an appeals court reverses his September 2005 conviction for embezzlement. ¶21. (U) A government commission is working on a draft law that will determine, inter alia, whether Vraniskovski's SOC-affiliated church can register officially as a religious group in Macedonia. Recent revelations that Vraniskovski's group is funded by the Serbian government -- a move widely seen here as a provocative intrusion into Macedonia's domestic affairs -- are likely to complicate the situation. DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SERBS -- MODERATE FORCE -------------- ¶22. (U) On a political level, ethnic Serbs are represented in the Parliament by the Democratic Party of the Serbs (DPS),a junior member of the ruling coalition. The DPS largely avoids controversial language and religious issues, although its MP, Ivan Stoiljovic, introduced a draft law in Parliament last year that would have amnestied Vraniskovski. According to the 2002 census, just under two percent of Macedonia's population are ethnic Serbs. NAME DISPUTE WITH GREECE CONTINUES -------------- ¶23. (SBU) Although Macedonia and Greece have extensive economic relations, the ongoing dispute over Macedonia's constitutional name has complicated relations between the two countries. Efforts to resolve the dispute are being led under UN auspices by Matthew Nimetz, a process that the USG strongly supports. While the UN continues to recognize Macedonia as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (or FYROM),the U.S. moved to recognize the country as the Republic of Macedonia in November 2004, joining over 100 other countries that have chosen to do so. That decision dramatically lifted the opinion most Macedonians had of the United States. MILOVANOVIC