A/S HILL'S VISIT TO SINGAPORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SINGAPORE 001829 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SN SUBJECT: A/S HILL'S VISIT TO SINGAPORE Classified By: E/P Counselor Laurent Charbonnet. Reasons 1.4(b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In his wide ranging discussions with Singapore's senior leadership, EAP Assistant Secretary Christopher R. Hill stressed the importance of Southeast Asia for the United States and said we were not in a competition with China for regional influence. Singapore wanted an open and inclusive East Asian architecture and valued the important stabilizing role the United States played in the region, GOS leaders said. The difficult Japan-China relationship worried Singapore; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said he hoped Japan could adopt a more "nuanced" approach to its relations with China after Prime Minister Koizumi was replaced. Singapore welcomed the U.S.-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement talks and Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong said Malaysia's success was vital to serve as a model for moderate Muslims. PM Lee also said Indonesia was moving in the right direction despite its many problems. Singapore continues to be frustrated by Burma and its willingness to snub ASEAN. End Summary. ¶2. (U) During his May 20-22 visit to Singapore, Assistant Secretary Hill, accompanied by the Ambassador, met separately SIPDIS with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong, Minister of Defence Teo Chee Hean, and MFA Permanent Secretary Peter Ho. A/S Hill also delivered a policy address SIPDIS at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. U.S. Role in Southeast Asia and Regional Architecture -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) A/S Hill told his interlocutors that Southeast Asia was an important region for the United States. He noted that Secretary Rice would be coming in July to the ASEAN Post SIPDIS Ministerial and ASEAN Regional Forum meetings in Kuala Lumpur and that President Bush would be in Vietnam in November for APEC. Minister Teo said the United States played an important stabilizing role in the region, especially as the power dynamics evolved with China and India's rise. A perception existed, however, that events in Iraq, Iran, and even in China had distracted the United States from Southeast Asia, according to Perm Sec Ho. SM Goh said it would help if more cabinet-level visitors came to Southeast Asia to signal U.S. interest in the region. The United States shouldn't give the impression that it left the region alone just because there were no problems here. ¶4. (C) Singapore wanted an open and inclusive structure for the evolving East Asian architecture, stated PM Lee. The GOS didn't want to see rivalries develop across the Pacific or between APEC and the East Asia Summit (EAS). With the inclusion of Australia, India, and New Zealand, the EAS had become larger than China had hoped, so now China was trying to make it bigger still, commented PM Lee. He discounted Russia's request to join the EAS, since Russia's "center of mass" was in Europe. ¶5. (C) Singapore's view of ASEAN was different from some of its partners in the organization, said Teo. Singapore supported a strong ASEAN with open relations with outside states. Some other ASEAN members also wanted a strong group, but sought to exclude outsiders. This basic difference in orientation was long-standing and could be seen in the different approaches taken to issues such as maritime security. No U.S. Rivalry with China -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In his meetings and his speech, A/S Hill stated that the United States was not engaged with China in a competition for influence in Southeast Asia -- "more of China does not equal less of the United States" in the region. In Southeast Asia, each country sought a good relationship with China, observed PM Lee. They did not want China to be their only option, however. ¶7. (C) Turning to the cross-Strait situation, PM Lee said he was still concerned that Taiwan would provoke trouble with China; President Chen Shui-bian had shown his willingness to do anything to win a temporary domestic political advantage. If KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou became president in 2008, he would be less unpredictable, but would still have to maneuver carefully given Taiwan's political scene. SINGAPORE 00001829 002 OF 003 China and Japan -------------- ¶8. (C) Perm Sec Ho told A/S Hill the on-going problems between China and Japan were worrying and Singapore didn't want to see other Asian countries taking sides. PM Lee said he hoped that after Prime Minister Koizumi was replaced, Japan could adopt a more "nuanced" approach to its relations with China. Japan earned little credit in Southeast Asia for all it had done through trade, investment, and aid, he added. Singapore wanted Japan to play a constructive role in East Asia. Six-Party Talks -------------- ¶9. (SBU) A/S Hill told PM Lee that last September's agreement at the Six-Party Talks was a good deal for North Korea, but it had refused to implement the agreement. North Korea attempted to justify its failure to live up to the agreement by blaming USG actions to curtail its illegal activities, such as money laundering and counterfeiting U.S. currency. PM Lee commented that the North Korean regime acted in unpredictable ways, but wasn't "crazy." He added that the younger generation in South Korea didn't know about the Korean War and considered the United States as the real problem, not North Korea. A/S Hill noted that we had to convince them that the U.S.-South Korea alliance still made sense for them. Malaysia -------------- ¶10. (C) A/S Hill commented that U.S. ties with Malaysia were moving forward and talks on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) would begin. It would be a real challenge to complete an FTA with Malaysia, observed PM Lee. It was an important "sea change," however, that Malaysia had sought one with the United States. SM Goh observed that Prime Minister Badawi was very different from his predecessor, Mahathir. While Badawi was a "little weak politically," he was quietly unwinding Mahathir's legacy, particularly the mega-projects. He was also more of an "institution man," and less prone to conduct his own foreign policy, commented an MFA official. Singapore wanted Malaysia to succeed economically and politically, to serve as a model for moderate Muslims, said SM Goh. He was worried, however, by Badawi's willingness to inject Islam into the political debate in the last election. In Malaysia, there were still pockets of people who resented Singapore's independence from Malaysia and Muslims who saw Singapore as a "Chinese island in a sea of green." Indonesia -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Indonesia was moving in the right direction, observed PM Lee, although it faced considerable problems with economic growth, terrorism, and "Islamization." He welcomed renewed U.S.-Indonesia mil-mil ties as a "considerable achievement." SM Goh said Indonesia had to attract more foreign investment to promote economic growth. He noted that Singapore was helping Indonesia do this, in part, by working together to establish special economic zones in Indonesia. He mentioned the possibility of linking the zones to the U.S.-Singapore FTA. Burma -------------- ¶12. (C) Expressing GOS frustration with Burma, Perm Sec Ho said Burma's leadership showed what they thought of ASEAN when they allowed UN Under Secretary General Ibrahim Gambari to see Aung San Suu Kyi this month after denying ASEAN Envoy and Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar's request to see her during his March trip. An MFA official observed that Burma probably sought to buy time with the UN by allowing the Gambari visit. ¶13. (C) Burma was "sitting pretty," commented Ho. The regime didn't mind external sanctions, welcomed isolation from the outside world, and relied on China to give it "ultimate political cover." At the ASEAN Foreign Minister's Retreat in Bali in April, Singapore FM George Yeo told his counterparts that Burma could be given more time to reform, but it SINGAPORE 00001829 003 OF 003 shouldn't be allowed to hold back the rest of ASEAN, Ho said. Some other foreign ministers didn't support this idea since they thought it could lead to the break-up of ASEAN. Ho downplayed that concern since Burma had never been that active in ASEAN. STANTON